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Verdict

Undervalued stocks right now

Recomputed daily from each company's filings and price. Cheap can mean overlooked or it can mean trouble: open any card for the failure-warning checks and insider activity before deciding which.

Every analyzed stock in Undervalued — 229 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Undervalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Undervalued" here means IRR 5–10 points over Treasuries on a believable coupon (yield ≤ 25%) (10-yr Treasury 5.22% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 0.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-10-09). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 9.9% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR 5–10 points over Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Could be luck ●●●●● Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +1.0 pts (620 entries, 292 companies, indistinguishable from luck). 45% of entries beat the S&P; 15% beat it by 30 points or more; 30% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −0.7 pts.
+1.0 ptsvs S&P, average
45%beat the S&P
15%up 30+ pts vs S&P
30%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+4.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−14.4 pts 2019worst year to buy ?
0.6luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: +0.4 pts 49% beat6 mo: −0.6 pts 46% beat12 mo: +1.0 pts 45% beat24 mo: +1.5 pts 39% beat3 yr, per yr: −4.9 pts 34% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today543+0.5 pts t 0.3+3.8 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)77+4.9 pts t 0.9+5.4 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing222−1.1 pts t -0.4−8.9 pts
Services71+5.3 pts t 1.1−0.2 pts
Retail & consumer62+0.4 pts t 0.1−8.2 pts
Tech hardware & semis50+2.6 pts t 0.4−6.0 pts
Other33−3.0 pts t -0.4−4.0 pts
Energy25−2.8 pts t -0.3−6.2 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +0.2 pts (n 268, t 0.1). From 2018: +1.6 pts (n 352, t 0.7). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P−6 pts−4 pts−1 pts−3 pts−1 pts+4 pts+3 pts+1 pts−14 pts+19 pts+14 pts+2 pts−11 pts−8 pts+9 pts
n42234525650503440424749454649

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

HLI
HOULIHAN LOKEY, INC.
Equity-like
Financial Services
Yield6.6%
Growth used4.9%
10-yr IRR11.1%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.12
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +4.9% · in line
FA
FIRST ADVANTAGE CORP
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.8%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.1%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.49
Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model +19.0% · below model
LNTH
Lantheus Holdings, Inc.
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield4.3%
Growth used12.5%
10-yr IRR11.1%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.81
Market implies +7.0%/yr vs model +12.5% · below model
CDW
CDW Corp
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield6.1%
Growth used6.2%
10-yr IRR11.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.06
Market implies +5.9%/yr vs model +6.2% · in line
GGB
GERDAU S.A.
Equity-like
Basic Materials
Yield7.5%
Growth used2.4%
10-yr IRR11.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.88
Market implies +0.1%/yr vs model +2.4% · in line
HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield5.2%
Growth used9.0%
10-yr IRR11.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.55
Market implies 0.0%/yr vs model +9.0% · below model
FLYW
Flywire Corp
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.8%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.0%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.51
Market implies +33.8%/yr vs model +25.0% · above model
FICO
FAIR ISAAC CORP
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.8%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.0%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.67
Market implies +10.2%/yr vs model +15.2% · below model
MO
ALTRIA GROUP, INC.
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield7.4%
Growth used2.7%
10-yr IRR11.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.78
Market implies -0.4%/yr vs model +2.7% · below model
GMED
GLOBUS MEDICAL INC
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield3.8%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.0%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.45
Market implies +6.7%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
NVS
NOVARTIS AG
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield5.3%
Growth used8.9%
10-yr IRR11.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.62
Market implies +1.2%/yr vs model +8.9% · below model
LOPE
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield5.1%
Growth used9.3%
10-yr IRR11.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.46
Market implies -1.0%/yr vs model +9.3% · below model
WS
Worthington Steel, Inc.
Equity-like
Basic Materials
Yield8.5%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR10.9%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.19
Market implies +8.7%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
RBA
RB GLOBAL INC.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR10.9%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.59
Market implies +9.0%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
TAYD
TAYLOR DEVICES, INC.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield3.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR10.9%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.91
Market implies +11.9%/yr vs model +17.6% · below model
CCK
CROWN HOLDINGS, INC.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield6.5%
Growth used4.8%
10-yr IRR10.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.68
Market implies -1.0%/yr vs model +4.8% · below model
FTDR
Frontdoor, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.4%
Growth used11.8%
10-yr IRR10.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.57
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +11.8% · below model
MITK
MITEK SYSTEMS INC
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.6%
Growth used11.1%
10-yr IRR10.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.05
Market implies +18.5%/yr vs model +11.1% · above model
TBRG
TruBridge, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield5.6%
Growth used7.4%
10-yr IRR10.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.36
Market implies +9.3%/yr vs model +7.4% · in line
OTIS
Otis Worldwide Corp
Equity-like
Technology
Yield5.3%
Growth used8.5%
10-yr IRR10.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.01
Market implies +6.5%/yr vs model +8.5% · in line
PAYO
Payoneer Global Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.0%
Growth used13.7%
10-yr IRR10.8%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.84
Market implies +8.3%/yr vs model +13.7% · below model
GIL
Gildan Activewear Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.5%
Growth used7.8%
10-yr IRR10.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.98
Market implies +4.8%/yr vs model +7.8% · below model
SJM
J M SMUCKER Co
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield6.6%
Growth used4.4%
10-yr IRR10.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.58
Market implies -3.5%/yr vs model +4.4% · below model
TPC
TUTOR PERINI CORP
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield6.2%
Growth used5.6%
10-yr IRR10.8%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.21
Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model +5.6% · in line
NVST
Envista Holdings Corp
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield5.5%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR10.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.01
Market implies +6.1%/yr vs model +7.6% · in line
BWA
BORGWARNER INC
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.7%
Growth used7.1%
10-yr IRR10.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.23
Market implies +8.7%/yr vs model +7.1% · in line
TK
TEEKAY CORP LTD
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield8.8%
Growth used-0.8%
10-yr IRR10.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.32
Market implies +2.5%/yr vs model -0.8% · above model
ESAB
ESAB Corp
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield6.5%
Growth used4.6%
10-yr IRR10.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.19
Market implies +10.5%/yr vs model +4.6% · above model
RYAAY
RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.4%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR10.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.01
Market implies +6.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
ETD
ETHAN ALLEN INTERIORS INC
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield10.1%
Growth used-3.4%
10-yr IRR10.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.90
Market implies +2.6%/yr vs model -3.4% · above model
ACT
Enact Holdings, Inc.
Equity-like
Financial Services
Yield5.9%
Growth used6.4%
10-yr IRR10.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.75
Market implies +1.1%/yr vs model +6.4% · below model
XZO
Exzeo Group, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR10.6%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.38
Market implies +5.0%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
PAYS
Paysign, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR10.6%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.41
Market implies +15.1%/yr vs model +24.0% · below model
PAG
PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, INC.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.6%
Growth used7.3%
10-yr IRR10.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.13
Market implies +6.7%/yr vs model +7.3% · in line
ZM
Zoom Communications, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield5.8%
Growth used6.7%
10-yr IRR10.6%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.52
Market implies +10.8%/yr vs model +6.7% · above model
ACEL
Accel Entertainment, Inc.
Equity-like
Communication Services
Yield4.7%
Growth used10.4%
10-yr IRR10.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.02
Market implies +7.5%/yr vs model +10.4% · in line
DUOL
Duolingo, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR10.5%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.46
Market implies +13.4%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
BUD
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield7.0%
Growth used3.1%
10-yr IRR10.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.76
Market implies -0.9%/yr vs model +3.1% · below model
LOCO
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.4%
Growth used7.7%
10-yr IRR10.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.13
Market implies +7.3%/yr vs model +7.7% · in line
EXEL
EXELIXIS, INC.
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield3.6%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR10.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.57
Market implies +6.6%/yr vs model +15.2% · below model
UTHR
UNITED THERAPEUTICS Corp
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield3.6%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR10.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.55
Market implies +4.6%/yr vs model +15.1% · below model
INVX
Innovex International, Inc.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield4.8%
Growth used9.9%
10-yr IRR10.5%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.63
Market implies +0.5%/yr vs model +9.9% · below model
BZUN
Baozun Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield6.2%
Growth used5.3%
10-yr IRR10.5%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.60
Market implies -4.1%/yr vs model +5.3% · below model
HALO
HALOZYME THERAPEUTICS, INC.
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield3.6%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR10.4%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.21
Market implies +5.1%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
RL
RALPH LAUREN CORP
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.4%
Growth used11.2%
10-yr IRR10.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.22
Market implies +12.4%/yr vs model +11.2% · in line
HAYW
Hayward Holdings, Inc.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield7.1%
Growth used2.6%
10-yr IRR10.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.07
Market implies +1.6%/yr vs model +2.6% · in line
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield6.2%
Growth used5.0%
10-yr IRR10.4%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.77
Market implies -1.0%/yr vs model +5.0% · below model
USPH
U S PHYSICAL THERAPY INC /NV
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield4.6%
Growth used10.6%
10-yr IRR10.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.07
Market implies +8.7%/yr vs model +10.6% · in line
CCZ
COMCAST CORP
Equity-like
Communication Services
Yield7.1%
Growth used2.6%
10-yr IRR10.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.77
Market implies -1.4%/yr vs model +2.6% · below model
CPNG
Coupang, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield3.7%
Growth used14.3%
10-yr IRR10.3%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.99
Market implies +20.2%/yr vs model +14.3% · above model
YUMC
Yum China Holdings, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.9%
Growth used9.5%
10-yr IRR10.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.74
Market implies +3.9%/yr vs model +9.5% · below model
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.0%
Growth used13.0%
10-yr IRR10.3%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.74
Market implies +7.6%/yr vs model +13.0% · below model
ABM
ABM INDUSTRIES INC /DE/
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.4%
Growth used11.1%
10-yr IRR10.3%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.18
Market implies +11.0%/yr vs model +11.1% · in line
ITRI
ITRON, INC.
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield5.8%
Growth used6.2%
10-yr IRR10.3%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.88
Market implies +3.9%/yr vs model +6.2% · in line
ST
Sensata Technologies Holding plc
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield6.2%
Growth used5.0%
10-yr IRR10.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.96
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
HITI
High Tide Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.0%
Growth used8.8%
10-yr IRR10.2%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.58
Market implies +18.0%/yr vs model +8.8% · above model