AMTD IDEA GROUP (AMTD) Stock Analysis
AMTD IDEA GROUP
▾ What's in the 45/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read AMTD
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
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Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
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Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
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Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
The share count we read for AMTD looks wrong — common for multi-class / founder-controlled filers that report shares per share-class. That makes per-share figures (including intrinsic value) misleading, so we suppressed them. The company's total financials below are sound.
What to use instead: Lean on the totals — revenue, net income, cash flow — and the balance sheet. Multi-class share counts are being corrected; once fixed, the per-share valuation returns automatically.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — AMTD's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $67.3M in FY2025.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $17.8M (was $5.2M the prior year).
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✗ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $17.8M vs net income $67.3M.Why this matters: When cash generated exceeds reported earnings, profits are high-quality (not propped up by accruals or one-time items).
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✓ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 2.9% vs 2.6% a year ago.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)Long-term debt is 12.7% of assets vs 13.7% a year ago ($292.1M of $2,300.3M assets).
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✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 8.83x vs 10.62x a year ago.Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
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· Share count (dilution) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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· Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 0.04x vs 0.04x a year ago.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard DCFDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → valuation is not meaningful for AMTD IDEA GROUP because its latest FCFFree Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation →/share is only 25% of EPSEPS — Earnings per share — net income divided by shares outstanding.
Why it matters: The basis for the P/E ratio. But "earnings" is an accountant's figure — easier to manipulate than cash flow.
Full explanation →, indicating a significant disconnect between reported earnings and actual cash generation. Valuing this company would require a deep understanding of its specific financial services offerings and the regulatory environment. Investors are likely focused on its consistent profitability and positive operating cash flow, despite the rising long-term debt. The #1 quantifiable risk is the significant increase in long-term debt from $50M to $292M.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
Why it matters: The basis for the P/E ratio. But "earnings" is an accountant's figure — easier to manipulate than cash flow.
Full explanation →, indicating stronger underlying cash generation and business health.
- Next quarter's operating cash flow growth rate
- Trend in long-term debt levels
- Revenue growth rate acceleration or deceleration
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue grew +26% to $101.2M.
- Free cash flow rose to $17.1M.
- Net income grew +26% to $67.3M.
Nothing was clearly worsening year-over-year.
Management & Leadership
AMTD IDEA Group is led by Dr. Feridun Hamdullahpur as Chairman of the Board and Dr. Timothy Wai Keung Lo as CEO. The company operates in the financial services sector, with a focus on investment banking and asset management.
What They Make
AMTD IDEA Group provides a range of financial services, including investment banking, asset management, and strategic investments, primarily to corporate and institutional clients.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is likely pricing AMTD IDEA GROUP based on its consistent profitability (positive net income 5/5 yrs) and positive operating cash flow (positive 5/5 yrs), suggesting a stable underlying business. Despite the difficulty in a standard DCFDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation →, these health signals indicate operational strength that investors are betting on for future growth, even with rising long-term debt.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company funds itself through its positive operating cash flow and has seen its long-term debt rising from $50M to $292M.
Free Cash Flow DCF
Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 3.7% |
| Historical Fcf Growth | -25.7% |
| Sector Default | 8.0% |
| Best Estimate | 5.0% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project net interest income and fee-income lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been growing at 3.7%/yr over 4 years, from $88M to $101M, and net income has been positive for 5/5 years.
Geography & Markets
AMTD IDEA Group is headquartered in Hong Kong and operates primarily in Asia, with an expanding presence in other international financial hubs. Exact geographic segment splits are not available in current filings.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)39.2NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (6 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (6)
- Latest FCF/share ($17089000) is only 25% of EPS ($67251000) - using 3yr avg FCF ($20715333.33/sh) to smooth temporary depression.
- Shares from unknown — per-share values may be less accurate.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable.
- Shares defaulted to 1; IV is NOT meaningful — treat as data-unavailable.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From AMTD IDEA GROUP's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 101.2M | 67.3M | — |
| 2024 | 80.5M | 53.6M | — |
| 2023 | 130.9M | 153.4M | — |
| 2022 | 105.4M | 160.5M | — |
| 2021 | 87.5M | 157.2M | — |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17.8M | 746,000 | — | 17.1M |
| 2024 | 5.2M | 8,000 | — | 5.2M |
| 2023 | 40.0M | 72,000 | — | 39.9M |
| 2022 | 26.6M | 2,000 | — | 26.6M |
| 2021 | 55.9M | — | — | 55.9M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a trailing 3-year average, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 2.3B |
| Total Liabilities | 385.4M |
| Equity | 1.4B |
| Total Debt | 292.1M |
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