BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ (BMO) Stock Analysis
BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/
▾ What's in the 32/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read BMO (bank / insurer)
Banks and insurers are valued on what they earn on their capital, not on free cash flow — a normal DCF misleads here.
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Bank / Insurance lens (P/TBV + ROE) ↓
Price-to-tangible-book versus return-on-equity is how analysts actually judge a bank cheap or rich.
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Financial-health screens ↓
Watch the trend in profitability and asset quality, not the (not-applicable) bankruptcy score.
It files little or nothing with the SEC — so our cash-flow models, financial statements, and U.S. insider data (Form 4) don't apply. What's still real: the live U.S. price and short positioning. Here's what we could pull from other sources:
📑 Read the real filings: latest SEC 6-K ↗
Identity, share count and tier from FINRA + OTC Markets; not a substitute for the home-market financial statements. Thin U.S. disclosure + OTC trading is itself a risk factor.
How does BMO stack up against its closest peers?
We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to BMO (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If BMO is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, FCF yield (in the table) is usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (8)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNY | Bank of New York Mellon Corp | Banks | $95.7B | — | 5.6% |
| USML | UBS AG | Banks | $177.7B | — | 2.0% |
| UBS | UBS Group AG | Banks | $178.6B | — | 4.4% |
| SMFG | SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, I | Banks | $85.3B | — | — |
| TD | TORONTO DOMINION BANK | Banks | $191.9B | — | — |
| VYLD | JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | Banks | $77.9B | — | 70.5% |
| SCDL | UBS AG | Banks | $210.8B | — | 1.7% |
| WF | WOORI FINANCIAL GROUP INC. | Banks | $51.3B | — | 4.2% |
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Altman Z was calibrated on industrial firms and doesn't apply to banks or insurers — their balance sheets are dominated by loans/securities, not working capital. See the Bank Valuation Lens above for P/B, ROE and ROA — the metrics regulators and analysts actually use to assess bank solvency.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
Piotroski F was built for non-financial firms (gross margin, asset turnover, current ratio all assume an industrial cost structure). For banks, the equivalent quality signals are efficiency ratio, net interest margin, and provision coverage — see the Bank Valuation Lens above.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → valuation is not meaningful for BMO because the model implies no positive equity value under its assumptions, as indicated by the 'INVARIANT: weighted IV is non-positive' flag. This suggests that traditional cash flow metrics are not the primary driver of its current market price. Investors are likely focused on its stability as a financial institution and its ability to generate consistent, albeit not rapidly growing, earnings. The #1 quantifiable risk is its low franchise/durability score of 0/5, indicating potential vulnerability.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Quarterly net interest margin trends
- Growth in loan and deposit volumes
- Changes in non-interest revenue
Management & Leadership
Darryl White has served as the Chief Executive Officer of BMO Financial Group since November 2017, leading the bank's strategic direction and operations. He has been with the bank for over 25 years in various leadership roles.
What They Make
BMO (Bank of Montreal) is a diversified financial services provider offering a broad range of personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and investment banking products and services to individuals, businesses, and institutions.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
The income statement and balance sheet are also too incomplete here to substitute another lens honestly, so this page carries price, momentum and disclosure facts only.
The market prices BMO based on its role as a stable financial institution, where investors prioritize consistent earnings and dividend payouts over rapid growth. The residual income model, often used for banks, suggests that its intrinsic valueIntrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
Full explanation → is tied to its book value and excess earnings. The market is likely focusing on its ability to maintain profitability and manage risk within a regulated environment, despite the low 0/5 franchise/durability score flagged.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
Residual Income
Balance-sheet financial (Banks): residual income model - book value is meaningful anchor.
Show advanced inputs
| Sector Default | 8.0% |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project net interest income and fee-income lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue and EPSEPS — Earnings per share — net income divided by shares outstanding.
Why it matters: The basis for the P/E ratio. But "earnings" is an accountant's figure — easier to manipulate than cash flow.
Full explanation → trends for BMO are generally stable, reflecting its mature status as a financial institution.
Geography & Markets
BMO operates primarily in North America, with significant banking operations in Canada and the United States. Exact geographic mix percentages are not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)69.3NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (5 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (5)
- Financial sector: using residual income model. IV = Book Value + PV(excess earnings).
- INVARIANT: weighted IV is non-positive. Model may not be appropriate.
- Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
- Model mismatch: residual income inappropriate for asset-light financial (BVPS $0.00 not meaningful vs price $162). Consider FCF model.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
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