Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) Stock Analysis
Bitdeer Technologies Group
▾ What's in the 27/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read BTDR (pre-profit growth)
This company is reinvesting instead of generating profit, so a standard DCF cannot price it. The useful question is whether the growth the market is paying for is achievable — and whether the company can fund itself until then.
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Reverse-DCF — the growth the price demands ↓
It shows exactly how fast the business must grow to justify today's price. Compare that to what comparable companies have actually achieved.
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Cash runway ↓
Can it reach profitability before it has to raise money and dilute shareholders?
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Interactive calculator ↓
Set your own growth + margin assumptions and see what the business would be worth if you are right.
BTDR's SEC filings give us limited machine-readable financials — common for some foreign or newly-listed filers that report under IFRS or file abbreviated statements. We can't run a full valuation on a partial dataset.
What to use instead: What we have parsed is shown below. As more complete filings arrive (or IFRS support lands), the valuation will populate.
How to read a company this small
This is a crypto-mining operation, not a traditional business. The SEC may have classified it as "Financial Services" but the economics are completely different from a bank.
- Bitcoin (or other crypto) price — the most important variable; mining revenue scales linearly with the coin price
- Hash rate / network difficulty — how much of the total mining capacity this company controls
- Cost of electricity — typically 60-80% of operating cost; cheap power = competitive edge
- Hardware refresh cycle — ASIC miners depreciate fast (2-3 years); CapEx is huge and recurring
- Balance-sheet crypto holdings — how much BTC sits on their balance sheet (HODL strategy)
- Capital structure — share issuance is constant; check for dilution
P/B, ROE, ROA, P/E — these are bank-style metrics that don't describe a crypto miner. Standard DCF projects revenue trajectory but crypto price is wildly volatile so projections are speculative.
The 10-K explains hash rate, fleet size, electricity cost per kWh, and crypto holdings. Quarterly reports show production numbers. Glassnode and CoinMetrics track on-chain economics.
Classified as Cryptocurrency Mining Company (confidence 90%). Disagree? An admin can override via the post edit screen.
How does BTDR stack up against its closest peers?
We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to BTDR (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If BTDR is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
| EV / SalesEV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt). Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices. Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding Full explanation → |
1.4x / 4.1x / 17.9x |
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (8)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/Sales | EV/GP | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LU | Lufax Holding Ltd | Financial Services | $2.9B | — | — | — | — |
| UPST | Upstart Holdings, Inc. | Financial Services | $3.2B | 3.1x | — | 75.9x | 0.1% |
| SII | SPROTT INC. | Financial Services | $3.4B | — | — | — | — |
| KEEL | Keel Infrastructure Corp. | Financial Services | $3.4B | 17.9x | — | — | 0.1% |
| QFIN | Qfin Holdings, Inc. | Financial Services | $3.9B | 1.4x | — | 4.1x | 34.2% |
| SUIG | SUI Group Holdings Ltd. | Financial Services | $2.0B | 513.6x | — | — | 0.0% |
| WLTH | WEALTHFRONT CORP | Financial Services | $1.8B | 5.0x | — | — | 5.9% |
| NAKA | Nakamoto Inc. | Financial Services | $4.4B | 2,392.5x | — | — | — |
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
The F-score compares two consecutive years of income, cash-flow and balance-sheet data. We have 5 years of income data for this filer, but no machine-readable cash-flow statement — so several of the nine checks have no input at all. We show nothing rather than score a partial year against itself. The reported figures in the financial tables below are unaffected.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Bitdeer Technologies Group because the company has negative net income and negative free cash flowFree Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation →, indicating it is not yet generating consistent profits. Investors are likely betting on future growth in the cryptocurrency mining sector and the potential for increased Bitcoin prices. The primary quantifiable risk is the company's continued negative net income, which suggests ongoing cash burn without a clear path to profitability.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What's free cash flow / what do these mean?
Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.
Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.
Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.
Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Quarterly net income turning positive
- Increase in deployed hashrate capacity
- Stable or increasing Bitcoin prices
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2023 → FY2024, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Still unprofitable at -$599.2M — loss widening.
Nothing was clearly improving year-over-year.
Management & Leadership
Jihan Wu is the Chairman and CEO of Bitdeer Technologies Group, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency industry, having co-founded Bitmain before establishing Bitdeer. He has led the company since its inception, focusing on its growth in digital asset mining.
What They Make
Bitdeer Technologies Group provides cryptocurrency mining services and solutions, primarily focusing on Bitcoin mining. Its customers include institutional and individual investors interested in participating in the digital asset economy.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is likely pricing BTDR based on its exposure to the volatile but potentially high-growth cryptocurrency sector, rather than current cash flows, as indicated by its negative net income. The market may be assigning value to the company's future growth potential in digital asset mining and its ability to scale operations, which is not in the model. This optionality may or may not materialize, depending on market conditions and operational execution.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company funds itself primarily through equity raises and operational cash flow, as it does not currently pay dividends or engage in share buybacks.
Growth / Revenue DCF
No cash flow statement data available - using revenue/margin growth model as fallback.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 15.0% |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project net interest income and fee-income lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Net income has been negative in the latest period, with profitability in only 1 out of the last 5 years.
Geography & Markets
Bitdeer Technologies Group operates globally, with mining data centers strategically located in regions with access to cost-effective and sustainable energy sources, though specific geographic revenue mix percentages are not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)68.0NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (3 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (3)
- FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
- INVARIANT: weighted IV is non-positive. Model may not be appropriate.
- Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Bitdeer Technologies Group's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | — | -599.2M | $-2.54 |
| 2023 | — | -56.7M | $-0.24 |
| 2022 | — | -60.4M | $-0.26 |
| 2021 | — | 82.6M | $0.35 |
| 2020 | — | -55.8M | $-0.24 |
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 1.6B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.3B |
| Equity | — |
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