BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (BXMT) Stock Analysis
BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC.
▾ What's in the 51/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read BXMT (REIT)
REITs pay out most of their cash, so judge them on cash distributions and the value of their property — not on earnings or a standard DCF.
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REIT lens (P/AFFO + dividend yield) ↓
Price-to-AFFO and the dividend yield are the real cheap/expensive gauges for real estate.
Standard DCF doesn't fit BXMT well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The REIT Valuation Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value reits. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.
How does BXMT stack up against its closest peers?
We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to BXMT (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If BXMT is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
| EV / SalesEV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt). Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices. Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding Full explanation → |
6.2x / 9.6x / 12.5x |
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (8)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/Sales | EV/GP | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMTW | PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | REITs | $2.2B | 12.6x | — | — | 6.2% |
| PMTU | PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | REITs | $2.2B | 12.5x | — | — | 6.3% |
| PMTV | PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | REITs | $2.2B | 12.4x | — | — | 6.3% |
| RYN | RAYONIER INC | REITs | $2.4B | 6.8x | — | 39.5x | 22.6% |
| TWOD | TWO HARBORS INVESTMENT CORP. | REITs | $2.7B | — | — | — | 6.0% |
| SMA | SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. | REITs | $1.7B | 6.2x | 10.0x | 29.3x | 4.3% |
| PEB | Pebblebrook Hotel Trust | REITs | $1.7B | 2.6x | — | 88.0x | 0.3% |
| RWTP | REDWOOD TRUST INC | REITs | $3.0B | — | — | — | 3.1% |
Leveraged bond portfolio dressed up as real estate
Despite the "REIT" label, this is not an equity REIT (which owns buildings). It\'s a leveraged mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) portfolio — borrow short-term, buy long-term mortgages, pocket the spread. Valued on P/Book + dividend yield + Net Interest Margin. AFFO doesn\'t apply.
- Yield curve shape — steep curve = wide net interest margin = healthy dividend. Flat/inverted curve crushes earnings.
- Prepayment speeds — refinancing waves shrink high-yield holdings; the mREIT has to reinvest at lower rates.
- Hedge book — most mREITs hedge interest-rate risk with swaps; hedging gains/losses can swing earnings dramatically.
- Leverage (debt-to-equity) — typically 5-9×. Amplifies BOTH returns and losses on the MBS portfolio.
- Distributable yield vs current yield — the dividend can outpace earnings for several quarters before being cut.
Warning: mREIT dividends are historically among the most likely to be cut during stress periods (2008, 2020, 2022). High current yield is NOT a reliable forecast.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
REITs deliberately carry high leverage backed by long-life real estate and pay out 90%+ of taxable income — both inputs that Altman Z flags as distress. See the REIT Valuation Lens above for P/AFFO, dividend yield and payout ratio.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
Piotroski F's checks (operating cash flow, gross-margin trend, current ratio, asset turnover) assume an industrial cost structure, so they misread asset-heavy or financial businesses like this one — a healthy REIT, utility, pipeline, BDC/fund or holding company can score low for reasons that aren't weakness. See the sector lens above for the metrics that actually matter.
The market appears to be discounting the stock due to its low franchise/durability score of 1/5, suggesting concerns about its long-term competitive position. The primary quantifiable risk is the tight operating cash flow, which covers dividends only 0.85x.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What's free cash flow / what do these mean?
Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.
Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.
Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.
Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Improvement in dividend coverage by operating cash flow
- Stability or growth in net interest income
- Changes in the company's loan portfolio credit quality
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Swung to a profit of $109.6M (from a loss the prior year).
- Free cash flow fell to $247.6M.
Management & Leadership
Blackstone Mortgage Trust is led by CEO Katie Keenan, who has been in the role since 2021. The company operates as part of the broader Blackstone real estate platform, a global leader in alternative asset management.
What They Make
Blackstone Mortgage Trust originates and acquires senior loans secured by commercial real estate properties, primarily in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its customers are institutional real estate investors and developers.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market prices BXMT at a 21.6% discount, likely reflecting its low franchise/durability score of 1/5. While net income and operating cash flow are positive, the market may be concerned about the company's competitive standing and the sustainability of its business model in a dynamic real estate lending environment, despite falling long-term debt.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company pays a dividend of approximately $1.89/yr, though operating cash flow covers only 0.85x dividends, indicating a tight payout.
Dividend Discount
REIT (REITs): dividend discount model - GAAP earnings distort REIT valuations.
Show advanced inputs
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project net interest income and fee-income lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Net income has been positive in 4 out of the last 5 years, and operating cash flow has been positive for 5 out of 5 years.
Geography & Markets
Blackstone Mortgage Trust primarily operates in North America, Europe, and Australia, leveraging Blackstone's global real estate presence. Specific geographic mix percentages are not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)43.4NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (4 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (3)
- Dividend derived from cash-flow statement ($1.89/yr; SEC has no per-share dividend feed).
- Operating CF covers 0.85x dividends - tight.
- Dividend data sparse; DDM using estimated yield. Confidence reduced.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | — | 109.6M | $0.64 |
| 2024 | — | -204.1M | $-1.17 |
| 2023 | — | 246.6M | $1.43 |
| 2022 | — | 248.6M | $1.46 |
| 2021 | — | 419.2M | $2.77 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
Capital expenditure isn't tagged in this filer's machine-readable data (the CapEx column shows "—"). The free-cash-flow column is therefore operating cash flow less stock-based compensation only — an upper bound on true owner earnings, not the real figure. Companies that report capex under a custom label (some large IFRS filers do) look better here than they are.
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 275.9M | — | 28.3M | 247.6M |
| 2024 | 366.5M | — | 31.8M | 334.6M |
| 2023 | 458.8M | — | 30.7M | 428.2M |
| 2022 | 396.8M | — | 33.4M | 363.4M |
| 2021 | 382.5M | — | 31.6M | 350.8M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 275.9M − — − 28.3M (SBC & adj.) = 247.6M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a TTM dividend, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 20.0B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.5B |
| Equity | 3.5B |
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