DILLARD’S, INC. (DDT) Stock Analysis
DILLARD'S, INC.
▾ What's in the 47/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read DDT
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
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Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
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Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
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Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
Our models couldn't converge on an intrinsic value for DDT they trust, given its current filings. We show no number rather than a misleading one.
What to use instead: Use the Reverse-DCF, the peer multiples in the Football Field, and the financial statements below as your signal.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — DDT's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $570.2M in FY2026.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $717.0M (was $714.1M the prior year).
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✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $717.0M vs net income $570.2M.
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✗ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 16.3% vs 16.8% a year ago.Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $3,505.0M).
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✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 2.65x vs 2.84x a year ago.Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
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✓ Share count (dilution)Share count declined 2.9% (0.0M → 0.0M year-over-year), so the no-dilution check passed. (One-year change; the multi-year buyback pace can differ.)
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✗ Pricing power (gross margin)Gross margin 39.5% vs 39.5% a year ago. Flat year-over-year — the point requires strict improvement, so it isn't awarded, but this is not deterioration.Why this matters: Rising gross margin means stronger pricing power or lower input costs — a sign of competitive strength. Falling margin signals pressure.
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✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 1.85x vs 1.84x a year ago.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
However, the market is likely discounting the stock due to its compressing gross margins (42.3% to 39.5%) and roughly flat revenue (-0.1%/yr over 4 years). The primary quantifiable risk is the implied decline of 20.0% compared to the model's 7.0%.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Gross margin trend in upcoming quarters
- Revenue growth re-acceleration
- Changes in inventory levels
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2025 → FY2026, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Free cash flow rose to $623.6M.
- Net income fell -4% to $570.2M.
Roughly flat: Revenue was flat 0% to $6.47B. · Gross margin held to 39% (0 pts).
Management & Leadership
William Dillard II serves as the Chairman and CEO of Dillard's, having held leadership roles for several decades. His family founded the company, maintaining significant involvement in its operations and strategic direction.
What They Make
Dillard's is a department store chain offering a wide range of merchandise, including apparel, accessories, cosmetics, and home furnishings. Its primary customers are middle to upper-income consumers seeking branded and private-label goods.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market prices DDT at a 100% discount, likely reflecting concerns over its deteriorating fundamentals. Specifically, the compressing gross margin from 42.3% to 39.5% and roughly flat revenue decline of 0.1%/yr over four years suggest challenges in profitability and top-line expansion, leading to a lower valuation.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company is retiring 4% of its shares per year, which boosts per-share growth, in addition to funding operations from positive operating cash flow.
Free Cash Flow DCF Moderate franchise
Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation. Extended fade horizon (5→6 years)
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | -0.1% |
| Eps Growth | -3.4% |
| Historical Fcf Growth | -14.7% |
| Sector Default | 8.0% |
| Best Estimate | 3.0% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector)+buyback(4%) |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project same-store sales, store/showroom count and gross margin independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been roughly flat, declining at -0.1%/yr over the past four years.
Geography & Markets
Dillard's primarily operates department stores across the United States. Specific geographic mix percentages are not available from current data sources, but its footprint is concentrated in the Southern, Southeastern, and Southwestern U.S.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)47.9NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (2 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (2)
- Per-share growth boosted by buybacks: the company is retiring 4% of its shares per year, which adds directly to per-share growth on top of business growth. Final per-share growth used by the model: 7%/yr.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From DILLARD'S, INC.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.5B | 570.2M | $36.42 |
| 2025 | 6.5B | 593.5M | $36.82 |
| 2024 | 6.8B | 738.8M | $44.73 |
| 2023 | 6.9B | 891.6M | $50.81 |
| 2022 | 6.5B | 862.5M | $41.88 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 717.0M | 93.4M | — | 623.6M |
| 2025 | 714.1M | 104.6M | — | 609.6M |
| 2024 | 883.6M | 132.9M | — | 750.6M |
| 2023 | 948.4M | 120.1M | — | 828.3M |
| 2022 | 1.3B | 104.4M | — | 1.2B |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 3.5B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.7B (derived) |
| Equity | 1.8B |
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