ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC (AMD) Stock Analysis

Price updated yesterday · SEC data refreshed 3 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC

AMD Technology Semiconductors📄 SEC filings ↗ CUSIP 007903107
Valuation N/A
Long-term trend (200d) 112% above 200-day Risk 42/100 Elevated
▾ What's in the 42/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 20/100 → +8.6
leverage 20/100
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 79/100 → +24.8
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 33/100 → +8.5
Total42/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $504.20 · yesterday 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 3 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read AMD

We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Reported earnings & margins ↓
    What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
  2. 2 Balance sheet & book value ↓
    Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
  3. 3 Who's selling & betting against it ↓
    Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
A note on process: fear-driven decisions — including fear of missing out — tend to be the expensive ones. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not evidence. Whichever reader you are, the data below is there to be checked before anything is decided.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ A share-count quirk blocked the per-share math

The share count we read for AMD looks wrong — common for multi-class / founder-controlled filers that report shares per share-class. That makes per-share figures (including intrinsic value) misleading, so we suppressed them. The company's total financials below are sound.

What to use instead: Lean on the totals — revenue, net income, cash flow — and the balance sheet. Multi-class share counts are being corrected; once fixed, the per-share valuation returns automatically.

This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — AMD's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.

ⓘ Why does AMD trade at $504.20?

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC has 1.64 billion shares outstanding. At $504.20 per share, the market values all outstanding AMD equity at $824.9 billion. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash. The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values AMD in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
Checking filings for failure warnings…
VALUATION RANGE — CROSS-METHOD CHECK

Football field: where does the price sit?

Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.

$60$179$297$416$534Current price $504.20EV / Sales (p25→p75)$65.47$298
The current price sits ABOVE the high end of every method. The market is paying a premium to all of these lenses — it expects materially better growth or margins than the models assume.

Industry multiples sourced from: industry: Semiconductors. See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.

PEER BASKET — LIMITED COMPARABLES

⚠ We found only 3 genuine same-industry (Semiconductors) comparables — fewer than the 4 we require for a reliable median. So we do not derive a peer-implied share value here. Read the multiples as rough context only.

How does AMD stack up against its closest peers?

Ideally we compare AMD only to same-industry peers, but too few exist in our universe right now, so the basket below mixes in broader-sector names. Treat the multiples as rough context, not a valuation. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 3 peers (broad — see caveat); implausible multiples excluded.

Peer-implied value check
We're not showing a peer-implied price for AMD: with only 3 genuine same-industry comparables, a median built partly from broader-sector names would be misleading. Lean on the DCF above; use the multiples table only as loose context.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (3)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GPEV/EBIT FCF Yield
TSM TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING Semiconductors $2.25T suspect 25.5x 45.4x55.8x 1.2%
UMC UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP Semiconductors $259.7B suspect 36.7x 112.6x— 0.4%
MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Semiconductors $184.5B 23.1x 45.2x142.8x 0.9%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Not available for this filer

The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.

Piotroski F-Score?Piotroski F-Score — A 9-point quality checklist scoring profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
8 / 9
Strong
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✓ Positive net income
    Net income $4,335.0M in FY2025.
  • ✓ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow $7,709.0M (was $3,041.0M the prior year).
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow $7,709.0M vs net income $4,335.0M.
  • ✓ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets 5.6% vs 2.4% a year ago.
  • ✗ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 3.1% of assets vs 2.5% a year ago ($2,348.0M of $76,926.0M assets).
    Why this matters: Rising debt relative to assets means more risk and more cash going to interest instead of shareholders. Falling debt is a sign of strengthening.
  • ✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 2.85x vs 2.62x a year ago.
  • ✓ Share count (dilution)
    Share count held roughly flat (1,637.0M → 1,636.0M year-over-year).
  • ✓ Pricing power (gross margin)
    Gross margin 49.5% vs 49.4% a year ago.
  • ✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.45x vs 0.37x a year ago.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for AMD. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for AMD because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
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⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a nominal return: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is about 6% in real terms. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF carries inflation in both the growth and the discount rate), so this switch does not change the value — it restates the return in real terms.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think AMD can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$504.20
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. The other valuation lenses on this page (reverse-DCF, peers, sector lens — whichever apply to this filer) carry the read instead.

    A standard discounted cash flow?DCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
    Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
    Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
    Full explanation →     (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for AMD, as indicated by the 'Extreme valuation' flag and the price being 9.6x the model's intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →    . This suggests the market is pricing in significant future growth and optionality beyond what trailing cash flows support. Investors are likely betting on continued revenue growth, which has been 20.5% annually over the last four years, and further margin expansion. The #1 quantifiable risk is the rising long-term debt, which has grown from $1M to $2348M.

    ⚠️ Revenue/margin projection model used - trailing FCF may understate growth runway at current scale.

    As of 3 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    12.5%
    profit
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    Net profit — 12.5¢ of every dollar ($2.65/sh — latest fiscal-year net income per share)
    Costs & taxes — 87.5¢ (on $21.17 revenue/sh)
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: each share (at $504) represents $21.17 of revenue per share per year, $2.65 of net income per current share, and $3.12 of free cash flow per share from the latest fiscal year. Each share carries $1.44 of total debt (interest-bearing borrowings, current + long-term).
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    For the stock to work, AMD must continue its revenue growth trajectory, maintaining or accelerating the current 20.5% annual growth rate, especially in high-margin segments like data center and AI accelerators. This would validate the market's pricing of future optionality.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The biggest fundamental risk is that the rising long-term debt, which has increased from $1M to $2348M, could become a burden if revenue growth slows or if the company's significant investments in R&D do not yield expected returns, potentially impacting future profitability and cash flow.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Next quarter's data center revenue growth rate
    • Gross margin trend in upcoming earnings reports
    • Updates on new product launches and design wins
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Revenue grew +34% to $34.64B.
    • Free cash flow rose to $5.10B.
    • Net income grew +164% to $4.34B.

    Nothing was clearly worsening year-over-year.

    Roughly flat: Gross margin held to 50% (+0 pts).

    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Dr. Lisa Su has served as CEO of AMD since October 2014, leading the company through a significant turnaround and period of growth. She is also the Chair of the Board. Victor Peng serves as President and oversees the company's product development and technology strategy.

    Lisa Su
    Chief Executive Officer and Chair
    Victor Peng
    President
    WHAT

    What They Make

    AMD designs and produces a wide range of high-performance microprocessors, graphics processing units (GPUs), and chipsets. These products are sold to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), cloud service providers, and consumers for use in PCs, servers, and gaming consoles.

    End Markets

    Data CenterGamingClient Computing

    Revenue Drivers

    Data Center GPUs and CPUs
    Gaming Console Processors
    Client PC Processors
    Market Cap: 824.9BBeta: 2.07
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    High-performance computing solutions for demanding workloads
    Energy-efficient processors for data centers
    Advanced graphics for immersive gaming experiences
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer We aren't publishing a discounted-cash-flow value here: the model's output failed our plausibility checks, so showing it would imply more precision than we have.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market is pricing AMD based on expectations of continued high revenue growth (20.5%/yr over 4yr) and further gross margin expansion (from 48.2% to 49.5%), which are positive health signals. The market may be assigning value to their future product pipeline in AI accelerators and data center solutions, which is not in the model, anticipating these will drive significant future cash flows. The company has also been consistently profitable and cash flow positive, suggesting a strong operational foundation for future growth bets.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Sales of CPUs and GPUs to PC manufacturers
    Sales of server processors and accelerators to data centers
    Sales of semi-custom chips for gaming consoles

    AMD has positive operating cash flow and funds its operations and growth through retained earnings and, increasingly, long-term debt, which has risen to $2348M.

    Growth / Revenue DCF Moderate franchise

    Extreme market premium (P/FCF 165x): market is pricing future growth far beyond current FCF. Using revenue/margin model.

    Show advanced inputs
    Revenue Growth20.5%

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project product, services and recurring/cloud lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Growth / re-investment phase

    Moat Signals

    Strong intellectual property in chip design
    Established relationships with major OEMs and cloud providers
    Continuous innovation in CPU and GPU technology

    Revenue has been growing at 20.5% per year over the last four years, from $16434M to $34639M, and net income has been positive for the last five years.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    AMD is a global company headquartered in the US, with significant international exposure across various regions, including North America, Europe, and Asia. Specific geographic revenue mix percentages are not available from current data sources.

    Geographic Risks

    Global semiconductor market cyclicality
    Intense competition from established industry players
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model neutral, tape bullish
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    76.0OverboughtBought up hard recently — stretched; pullbacks are common from here.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
    50-Day Average$328.15Price above (+53.6%)Price above its 50-day average = near-term uptrend.
    200-Day Average$237.58Price aboveThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossGolden50-day above 200-dayA "golden cross" — the medium trend has overtaken the long trend (often read as bullish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (4 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (4)
    • Revenue/margin projection model used - trailing FCF may understate growth runway at current scale.
    • Price is far above the model output - market may be pricing optionality, narrative catalysts, or margin expansion beyond what trailing cash flows support.
    • Extreme valuation (P/IV withheld — see the note above); output dominated by data/units issue (often a multi-class share-count mismatch). Suppressed.
    • DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC's SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    202534.6B4.3B$2.65
    202425.8B1.6B$1.00
    202322.7B854.0M$0.53
    202223.6B1.3B$0.84
    202116.4B3.2B$2.57

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 7.7B 974.0M 1.6B 5.1B
    2024 3.0B 636.0M 1.4B 998.0M
    2023 1.7B 546.0M 1.4B -263.0M
    2022 3.6B 450.0M 1.1B 2.0B
    2021 3.5B 301.0M 379.0M 2.8B

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 7.7B − 974.0M − 1.6B (SBC & adj.) = 5.1B. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets76.9B
    Total Liabilities13.9B (derived)
    Equity63.0B
    Total Debt2.3B
    VIDEOS

    Recent video coverage

    Top recent YouTube videos by date. We don't endorse the channels — these are surfaced for context.

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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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