HONDA MOTOR CO LTD (HMC) Stock Analysis
HONDA MOTOR CO LTD
▾ What's in the 58/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read HMC (pre-profit growth)
This company is reinvesting instead of generating profit, so a standard DCF cannot price it. The useful question is whether the growth the market is paying for is achievable — and whether the company can fund itself until then.
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Reverse-DCF — the growth the price demands ↓
It shows exactly how fast the business must grow to justify today's price. Compare that to what comparable companies have actually achieved.
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Cash runway ↓
Can it reach profitability before it has to raise money and dilute shareholders?
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Interactive calculator ↓
Set your own growth + margin assumptions and see what the business would be worth if you are right.
HMC's SEC filings give us limited machine-readable financials — common for some foreign or newly-listed filers that report under IFRS or file abbreviated statements. We can't run a full valuation on a partial dataset.
What to use instead: What we have parsed is shown below. As more complete filings arrive (or IFRS support lands), the valuation will populate.
How does HMC stack up against its closest peers?
We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to HMC (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If HMC is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
| EV / SalesEV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt). Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices. Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding Full explanation → |
0.4x / 1.0x / 1.9x |
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (8)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/Sales | EV/GP | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Auto Manufacturers | $62.9B | — | — | — | — |
| F | FORD MOTOR CO | Auto Manufacturers | $69.4B | 0.4x | — | — | 10.4% |
| GM | General Motors Co | Auto Manufacturers | $75.1B | 0.4x | — | 25.8x | 13.4% |
| LI | Li Auto Inc. | Auto Manufacturers | $30.4B | 1.9x | 10.3x | — | 1.8% |
| PCAR | PACCAR INC | Auto Manufacturers | $23.5B | 0.8x | — | — | 14.3% |
| STLA | Stellantis N.V. | Auto Manufacturers | $23.1B | — | — | — | — |
| RIVN | Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE | Auto Manufacturers | $20.5B | 4.6x | 173.5x | — | 0.1% |
| NIO | NIO Inc. | Auto Manufacturers | $13.9B | 1.2x | 8.9x | — | 0.2% |
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
The F-score compares two consecutive years of income, cash-flow and balance-sheet data. We have 5 years of income data for this filer, but no machine-readable cash-flow statement or balance sheet — so several of the nine checks have no input at all. We show nothing rather than score a partial year against itself. The reported figures in the financial tables below are unaffected.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Honda Motor Co Ltd because its net income is negative, indicating a lack of consistent profitability. The model projects no positive equity value under its assumptions, suggesting that current cash flows do not support a traditional valuation. Investors are likely focused on Honda's future growth prospects in evolving automotive markets, particularly its investments in new technologies. The number one quantifiable risk is the continued negative net income, which could deplete cash reserves if not reversed.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Quarterly net income turning positive and sustained
- Announcements of new EV models and sales targets
- Progress in autonomous driving partnerships or deployments
Management & Leadership
Toshihiro Mibe has served as the CEO of Honda Motor Co., Ltd. since April 2021, leading the company's strategic direction. He oversees global operations, focusing on electrification and advanced mobility solutions. Shinji Aoyama serves as the Executive Vice President.
What They Make
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells automobiles, motorcycles, and power equipment globally. Its primary customers are individual consumers and businesses seeking reliable transportation and machinery.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
The income statement and balance sheet are also too incomplete here to substitute another lens honestly, so this page carries price, momentum and disclosure facts only.
The market is likely pricing Honda based on expectations for its future growth and strategic shifts, rather than its current cash flow, given that net income is negative. The market may be assigning value to Honda's ongoing investments in electric vehicles and autonomous driving technology, which are not yet fully reflected in current financial filings. These initiatives represent potential future revenue streams that could significantly alter its profitability.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
Honda funds itself through its operations and may utilize debt or equity markets as needed, with no specific dividend or buyback rates provided in the FLAGS.
Growth / Revenue DCF
No cash flow statement data available - using revenue/margin growth model as fallback.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 15.0% |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Net income was negative in the latest period and profitable in 0 out of the last 5 years.
Geography & Markets
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. is a Japanese multinational conglomerate that operates globally, with significant presence in North America, Asia, and Europe. Specific geographic revenue percentages are not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)64.4NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (3 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (3)
- FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
- INVARIANT: weighted IV is non-positive. Model may not be appropriate.
- Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From HONDA MOTOR CO LTD's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2013 | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2012 | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2011 | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2010 | — | — | $0.00 |
Similar companies worth a look
Same sector and industry, similar fundamentals shape. Verify everything yourself — this list is computed mechanically and does not reflect our judgment about whether any of these are a good investment.