Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Stock Analysis
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
▾ What's in the 39/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read JEF (holding company)
A holding company is worth the sum of its parts plus its investment portfolio — value it on book value / sum-of-parts, not a single DCF.
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Sum-of-parts / book value lens ↓
Price-to-book and the value of the underlying businesses/holdings are the right yardstick.
Standard DCF doesn't fit JEF well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Conglomerate Sum-of-Parts Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value investment brokerage. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.
How does JEF stack up against its closest peers?
We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to JEF (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If JEF is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
| EV / SalesEV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt). Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices. Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding Full explanation → |
2.2x / 3.8x / 5.5x |
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (8)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/Sales | EV/GP | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEIC | SEI INVESTMENTS CO | Investment Brokerage | $10.6B | 4.6x | 13.1x | 16.8x | 4.8% |
| TIGR | UP Fintech Holding Ltd | Investment Brokerage | $14.4B | 23.6x | — | — | 4.8% |
| FRHC | Freedom Holding Corp. | Investment Brokerage | $8.7B | 217.9x | — | — | 17.7% |
| SF | STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP | Investment Brokerage | $7.7B | 2.2x | — | — | 11.5% |
| NMR | NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | Investment Brokerage | $24.0B suspect | — | — | — | — |
| PIPR | PIPER SANDLER COMPANIES | Investment Brokerage | $5.6B | 3.0x | — | — | 33.2% |
| RJF | RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC | Investment Brokerage | $27.9B | 1.8x | — | — | 6.7% |
| MKTX | MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC | Investment Brokerage | $4.6B | 5.5x | — | 13.5x | 7.1% |
Valued like a holding company, not an operating business
JEF is structured as a holding company with multiple operating subsidiaries and/or a large equity portfolio. Standard DCF on consolidated free cash flow misses the value of investments + cash on the balance sheet. The relevant anchor is book value per share — what each share owns of the underlying assets.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
▾ Why book value matters more than DCF for conglomerates
Caveats: book value uses historical cost — understates appreciated equity holdings. A premium of 30-60% to book is historically normal for well-managed conglomerates.
▾ View top 10 holdings
| Company | Value | % of portfolio |
|---|---|---|
| STATE STR SPDR S&P 500 ETF | $2.1B | 13.9% |
| SPACE EXPLORATION TECHN CORP | $0.8B | 5.5% |
| INVESCO QQQ TR | $0.6B | 3.9% |
| ISHARES TR | $0.5B | 3.1% |
| SPDR SERIES TRUST | $0.3B | 2.3% |
| APPLE INC | $0.2B | 1.6% |
| SPDR GOLD TR | $0.2B | 1.6% |
| ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC | $0.2B | 1.1% |
| META PLATFORMS INC | $0.2B | 1.1% |
| AMAZON COM INC | $0.2B | 1.1% |
Source: SEC Form 13F-HR · 45-day quarterly reporting lag · Top 10 of 1241 positions shown.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Insurance/investment holding companies (e.g. Berkshire) sit on huge securities portfolios and float liabilities — Altman Z reads that capital structure as "distress" even with tens of billions in earnings and cash. See the Sum-of-Parts / Book Value lens above instead.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
Piotroski F's checks (operating cash flow, gross-margin trend, current ratio, asset turnover) assume an industrial cost structure, so they misread asset-heavy or financial businesses like this one — a healthy REIT, utility, pipeline, BDC/fund or holding company can score low for reasons that aren't weakness. See the sector lens above for the metrics that actually matter.
What if you assume different inputs?
Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount RateDiscount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for JEF. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.
Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.
A full intrinsic value isn't shown for JEF because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.
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⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Jefferies Financial Group Inc. because the model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory, and the company has experienced declining revenue over the past four years. Additionally, operating cash flow has been negative in the latest period, making a traditional cash flow valuation unreliable. Investors are likely focused on the company's ability to stabilize and grow its core financial services businesses. The #1 quantifiable risk is the continued decline in revenue, which could further impair profitability and cash generation.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What's free cash flow / what do these mean?
Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.
Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.
Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.
Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Quarterly revenue growth returning to positive territory
- Operating cash flow turning consistently positive
- Reduction in long-term debt levels
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue grew +14% to $5.55B.
- Free cash flow is negative at -$1.79B — the cash burn widened vs last year.
- Net income fell -5% to $682.0M.
Management & Leadership
Richard Handler serves as the Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Jefferies Financial Group, a role he has held for many years, overseeing the firm's diverse financial services operations. Brian Friedman is President of the company, working closely with Handler on strategic direction and execution.
What They Make
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is a diversified financial services company that provides investment banking, equities, fixed income, and wealth management services to corporations, institutions, and high-net-worth individuals.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is pricing JEF based on expectations for a turnaround in its core financial services businesses, despite the reported revenue DECLINING (-2.5%/yr over 4yr) and operating cash flow being NEGATIVE latest. The market may be assigning value to the potential for a rebound in investment banking activity and trading volumes, which is not fully captured in a backward-looking cash flow model. The company's consistent profitability (Net income POSITIVE latest, 5/5 yrs) likely provides some floor to the valuation.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company funds itself through a combination of retained earnings and long-term debt, which has been RISING ($9126M → $15896M).
Growth / Revenue DCF
Negative free cash flow: revenue/margin growth model used - standard FCF DCF is unreliable for companies still scaling.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 2.0% |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project net interest income and fee-income lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been DECLINING (-2.5%/yr over 4yr), while net income has been POSITIVE for 5/5 years.
Geography & Markets
Jefferies Financial Group operates globally, with a significant presence in major financial centers across North America, Europe, and Asia, serving a diverse international client base. Exact geographic segment splits are not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)63.7NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (4 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (4)
- FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
- Terminal growth (3%) capped to 1.6% (80% of near-term growth 2%).
- Extreme valuation (P/IV withheld — see the note above); output dominated by data/units issue (often a multi-class share-count mismatch). Suppressed.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.5B | 682.0M | $2.83 |
| 2024 | 4.9B | 716.0M | $2.99 |
| 2023 | 3.2B | 262.4M | $1.10 |
| 2022 | 4.7B | 781.7M | $3.06 |
| 2021 | 6.1B | 1.7B | $6.13 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -1.5B | 207.5M | 88.2M | -1.8B |
| 2024 | -140.5M | 250.6M | 63.1M | -454.2M |
| 2023 | -1.9B | 1.2M | 45.4M | -2.0B |
| 2022 | 1.8B | 224.3M | 43.9M | 1.5B |
| 2021 | 1.6B | 165.6M | 78.2M | 1.3B |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: -1.5B − 207.5M − 88.2M (SBC & adj.) = -1.8B. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 76.0B |
| Total Liabilities | 65.4B |
| Equity | 10.6B |
| Total Debt | 15.9B |
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