STUDIO CITY INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS Ltd (MSC) Stock Analysis
STUDIO CITY INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS Ltd
▾ What's in the 70/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read MSC (pre-profit growth)
This company is reinvesting instead of generating profit, so a standard DCF cannot price it. The useful question is whether the growth the market is paying for is achievable — and whether the company can fund itself until then.
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Reverse-DCF — the growth the price demands ↓
It shows exactly how fast the business must grow to justify today's price. Compare that to what comparable companies have actually achieved.
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Cash runway ↓
Can it reach profitability before it has to raise money and dilute shareholders?
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Interactive calculator ↓
Set your own growth + margin assumptions and see what the business would be worth if you are right.
The share count we read for MSC looks wrong — common for multi-class / founder-controlled filers that report shares per share-class. That makes per-share figures (including intrinsic value) misleading, so we suppressed them. The company's total financials below are sound.
What to use instead: Lean on the totals — revenue, net income, cash flow — and the balance sheet. Multi-class share counts are being corrected; once fixed, the per-share valuation returns automatically.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — MSC's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✗ Positive net incomeNet income -$58.8M in FY2025.Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $210.3M (was $189.9M the prior year).
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✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $210.3M vs net income -$58.8M.
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✓ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets -2.1% vs -3.2% a year ago.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)Long-term debt is 72.4% of assets vs 72.5% a year ago ($2,024.6M of $2,796.4M assets).
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✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 0.73x vs 0.92x a year ago — below 1.0, a caution flag.Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
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· Share count (dilution) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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· Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 0.25x vs 0.21x a year ago.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → valuation is not meaningful for Studio City International Holdings Ltd due to its negative net income in the latest period and only two profitable years out of five. Investors are likely betting on continued revenue growth and the potential for sustained positive operating cash flow. The primary quantifiable risk is the current ratio of 0.73, indicating current liabilities exceed liquid assets.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue grew +9% to $694.6M.
- Free cash flow rose to $210.3M.
- Still unprofitable at -$58.8M — loss narrowing.
Nothing was clearly worsening year-over-year.
Management & Leadership
Studio City International Holdings Ltd is a developer and operator of integrated resort facilities in Macau. Lawrence Ho serves as the Chairman and CEO, a position he has held for many years, overseeing the company's strategic direction and expansion in the entertainment and gaming sector.
What They Make
Studio City International Holdings Ltd develops and operates a cinematically-themed integrated resort in Macau, offering gaming, entertainment, retail, and hotel services primarily to tourists and leisure travelers.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is pricing MSC based on expectations of future growth and its ability to achieve sustained profitability, rather than current cash flow. Despite negative net income, the company has shown significant revenue growth of 59.7%/yr over four years, and operating cash flow was positive in the latest period, suggesting a path to improved financial health.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
Free Cash Flow DCF
Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation. FCF negative in 3/5 years.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 59.7% |
| Historical Fcf Growth | 10.8% |
| Sector Default | 8.0% |
| Best Estimate | 40.0% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Geography & Markets
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)46.4NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (7 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (7)
- Growth 44.2% capped to 40% (no analyst confirmation).
- Growth capped at 25%/yr: the company is buying back 0% of shares per year on top of the underlying business growth, which would push per-share growth above 25% — we cap that to keep the model conservative.
- Shares from unknown — per-share values may be less accurate.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable.
- Shares defaulted to 1; IV is NOT meaningful — treat as data-unavailable.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From STUDIO CITY INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS Ltd's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 694.6M | -58.8M | — |
| 2024 | 639.1M | -96.7M | — |
| 2023 | 445.5M | -133.5M | — |
| 2022 | 11.5M | -326.5M | — |
| 2021 | 106.9M | -252.6M | — |
Cash Flow (5yr)
Capital expenditure isn't tagged in this filer's machine-readable data (the CapEx column shows "—"). The free-cash-flow column is therefore operating cash flow less stock-based compensation only — an upper bound on true owner earnings, not the real figure. Companies that report capex under a custom label (some large IFRS filers do) look better here than they are.
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 210.3M | — | — | 210.3M |
| 2024 | 189.9M | — | — | 189.9M |
| 2023 | -18.9M | — | — | -18.9M |
| 2022 | -178.8M | — | — | -179.1M |
| 2021 | -136.8M | — | — | -137.3M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 2.8B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.2B |
| Equity | 523.9M |
| Total Debt | 2.0B |
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