CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (STZ) Stock Analysis
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC.
▾ What's in the 44/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read STZ
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
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Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
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Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
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Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
The share count we read for STZ looks wrong — common for multi-class / founder-controlled filers that report shares per share-class. That makes per-share figures (including intrinsic value) misleading, so we suppressed them. The company's total financials below are sound.
What to use instead: Lean on the totals — revenue, net income, cash flow — and the balance sheet. Multi-class share counts are being corrected; once fixed, the per-share valuation returns automatically.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — STZ's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $1,686.7M in FY2026.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $2,669.0M (was $3,152.2M the prior year).
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✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $2,669.0M vs net income $1,686.7M.
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✓ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 7.7% vs -0.4% a year ago.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)Long-term debt is 47.0% of assets vs 49.4% a year ago ($10,296.5M of $21,900.5M assets).
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✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 1.08x vs 0.92x a year ago.
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· Share count (dilution) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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✗ Pricing power (gross margin)Gross margin 51.6% vs 52.1% a year ago.Why this matters: Rising gross margin means stronger pricing power or lower input costs — a sign of competitive strength. Falling margin signals pressure.
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✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 0.42x vs 0.47x a year ago.Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Constellation Brands due to its roughly flat revenue growth (0.9%/yr over 4 years) and compressing gross margins, which make future cash flow projections unreliable for a precise intrinsic valueIntrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
Full explanation →. Investors are likely focused on the company's consistent positive operating cash flow and its established brand portfolio, betting on its ability to maintain market share and generate stable returns. The number one quantifiable risk is the compressing gross margin, which could erode profitability if it continues.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Next quarter's gross margin trend
- Revenue growth rate in upcoming earnings reports
- Updates on new product introductions or market share gains
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2025 → FY2026, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Swung to a profit of $1.69B (from a loss the prior year).
- Revenue fell -10% to $9.14B.
- Free cash flow fell to $1.73B.
- Gross margin shrank to 52% (-1 pts).
Management & Leadership
Bill Newlands serves as the President and CEO of Constellation Brands, having taken on the role in 2019. Richard Sands, a member of the founding family, continues to serve as Chairman of the Board, providing long-term strategic oversight.
What They Make
Constellation Brands produces and markets a diverse portfolio of beer, wine, and spirits, primarily serving adult consumers through retail channels and on-premise establishments.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market prices Constellation Brands based on its consistent positive operating cash flow (positive 5/5 years) and its established brand portfolio, rather than high growth expectations. Despite roughly flat revenue and compressing gross margins, investors likely value the company for its stability and ability to generate cash, with the current ratio of 1.08 indicating adequate liquidity.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
Free Cash Flow DCF
Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 0.9% |
| Historical Fcf Growth | 1.4% |
| Sector Default | 5.0% |
| Best Estimate | 3.0% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been roughly flat, growing 0.9%/yr over the last four years.
Geography & Markets
Constellation Brands is headquartered in the United States and has a significant presence across North America, with its key beer brands dominating the US market. While specific geographic mix percentages are not available, its operations are primarily concentrated in the Americas.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)35.2NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (8 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (6)
- Terminal growth (3%) capped to 2.4% (80% of near-term growth 3%).
- Shares from unknown — per-share values may be less accurate.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable.
- Shares defaulted to 1; IV is NOT meaningful — treat as data-unavailable.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.1B | 1.7B | — |
| 2025 | 10.2B | -81.4M | — |
| 2024 | 10.0B | 1.7B | — |
| 2023 | 9.5B | -71.0M | — |
| 2022 | 8.8B | -40.4M | — |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7B | 875.0M | 67.7M | 1.7B |
| 2025 | 3.2B | 1.2B | 72.2M | 1.9B |
| 2024 | 2.8B | 1.3B | 63.6M | 1.4B |
| 2023 | 2.8B | 1.0B | 68.5M | 1.7B |
| 2022 | 2.7B | 1.0B | 44.9M | 1.6B |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 2.7B − 875.0M − 67.7M (SBC & adj.) = 1.7B. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 21.9B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.5B |
| Equity | 8.1B |
| Total Debt | 10.3B |
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