American Bitcoin Corp. (ABTC) Stock Analysis

Price updated 2 days ago · SEC data refreshed 3 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

American Bitcoin Corp.

ABTC Financial Services Financial Services📄 SEC filings ↗
Valuation N/A
Long-term trend (200d) 162% above 200-day Risk 33/100 Moderate
▾ What's in the 33/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 20/100 → +8.6
leverage 20/100 · Altman Z not scored — input unavailable (see Financial Health)
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 49/100 → +15.4
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 35/100 → +9.0
early-warning: macro conditions deteriorating week-over-week
Total33/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $8.32 · 2 days ago 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 3 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read ABTC (Bitcoin fund)

ABTC holds Bitcoin on your behalf — it is not a business, so there are no cash flows to value. Its price tracks Bitcoin. What matters is your view on Bitcoin, the fund's fee, and how close the price trades to the value of the coins it holds.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Why normal valuation doesn't apply ↓
    Bitcoin has no earnings or cash flow — a DCF, P/E or book-value model tells you nothing here. Your return is ~100% the coin's price.
  2. 2 Anatomy of a share ↓
    What one share actually represents in terms of the fund's holdings.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
A note on process: fear-driven decisions — including fear of missing out — tend to be the expensive ones. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not evidence. Whichever reader you are, the data below is there to be checked before anything is decided.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Using the right valuation lens for this business type

Standard DCF doesn't fit ABTC well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Rule of 40 (Pre-Profit Growth) Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value financial services. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.

How to value ABTC

American Bitcoin Corp. isn't a business — it's a fund that holds Bitcoin on your behalf. There are no revenues, earnings, or cash flows to discount, so a DCF, P/E, or book-value model tells you nothing. Each share represents a fixed slice of the fund's Bitcoin, so the price simply tracks the price of Bitcoin (minus a small annual fee). An intrinsic-value "verdict" would be meaningless here, so we don't show one.

What actually matters for ABTC:
  • Your view on Bitcoin — that's ~100% of the return. This page can't tell you whether Bitcoin itself is cheap or expensive.
  • Expense ratio — the annual fee skims your holding every year. Spot Bitcoin funds range from ~0.12% to ~1.5%; for a long hold, lower is better.
  • Premium / discount to NAV — aim to pay close to the value of the coins the fund holds, not a markup over them.
  • Structure & custody — a modern spot ETF vs an older trust, and who actually custodies the coins.

Crypto is highly volatile and speculative. Educational only — not investment advice.

ⓘ Why does ABTC trade at $8.32?

American Bitcoin Corp. has 905.1 million shares outstanding. At $8.32 per share, the market values all outstanding ABTC equity at $7.5 billion. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash (ABTC carries little or no debt, so the two are close here). The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values ABTC in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
Checking filings for failure warnings…
PEER BASKET — TIGHT COMPARABLES

How does ABTC stack up against its closest peers?

We take the 6 same-industry companies most similar to ABTC (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If ABTC is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, FCF yield (in the table) is usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 6 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.

Peer-implied value check
Not enough clean peer EV/Sales multiples to derive a reliable median (some were dropped as implausible/outliers). The EV/EBIT and FCF-yield rows above are the better read here; also lean on the DCF.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GPEV/EBIT FCF Yield
KLAR Klarna Group plc Financial Services $6.9B — —— —
RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Financial Services $10.3B 17.1x —— 0.5%
WULF TERAWULF INC. Financial Services $12.7B 104.0x 238.7x— 0.0%
YRD Yiren Digital Ltd. Financial Services $12.9B 15.7x —— 1.0%
NAKA Nakamoto Inc. Financial Services $4.4B 2,392.5x —— —
HUT Hut 8 Corp. Financial Services $14.1B 59.8x —— 0.3%
SBET Sharplink, Inc. Financial Services ·fallback $6.4B 229.2x —— 0.1%
MARA MARA Holdings, Inc. Financial Services ·fallback $5.5B 154.7x —— 0.0%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
n/a
Not reliably computable

We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. The classic manufacturing-calibrated model also fits asset-light businesses like this one poorly. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.

Piotroski-style checks (partial — not a standard F-score)
3 passed · 5 failed · 1 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 3 of 8 measurable checks passed. 1 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 8, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✗ Positive net income
    Net income -$153.2M in FY2025.
    Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
  • ✗ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow -$79.6M (was -$54.0M the prior year).
    Why this matters: Profit can be an accounting figure; cash from running the business is harder to fake. Negative operating cash flow means the core business consumes cash and must be funded externally.
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow -$79.6M vs net income -$153.2M.
  • ✗ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets -12.3% vs 38.8% a year ago.
    Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $1,246.5M).
  • ✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 0.08x vs 3.04x a year ago — below 1.0, a caution flag.
    Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
  • ✗ Share count (dilution)
    Share count rose 1.5% (891.8M → 905.1M year-over-year).
    Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • ✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.15x vs 0.06x a year ago.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

Cash Runway
1 mo
CRITICAL — under 6 months of cash

Plain English: the company holds about $4M in cash and is burning roughly $80M/year in operations. At that pace, the cash lasts 1 mo before it must raise capital (diluting shareholders), take on debt, or cut spending.

Assumes constant burn and ignores financing/asset sales. For pre-profit biotech and growth companies, this matters more than a DCF — a great drug pipeline is worthless if they run out of money before approval.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for ABTC. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for ABTC because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a nominal return: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is about 6% in real terms. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF carries inflation in both the growth and the discount rate), so this switch does not change the value — it restates the return in real terms.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think ABTC can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$8.32
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. The other valuation lenses on this page (reverse-DCF, peers, sector lens — whichever apply to this filer) carry the read instead.

    The market appears to be paying for the company's high revenue growth of 80%/yr over four years, despite negative net income and operating cash flow. The market may be assigning value to potential future applications of blockchain technology beyond current revenue streams, which is not in the model. The #1 quantifiable risk is the current ratio of 0.08, indicating severe liquidity issues.

    ⚠️ FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.

    As of 3 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    ABTC American Bitcoin Corp. stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    −82.7%
    loss
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    For every $1 of revenue, ABTC currently loses 82.7¢ — costs exceed sales. A money-losing business can still be a good investment if losses are shrinking toward profitability; check the trend, not just the snapshot.
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: each share (at $8) represents $0.20 of revenue per share per year, $0.17 lost per share per year, and $0.09 of cash burned per share (negative free cash flow) from the latest fiscal year. The filing reports no interest-bearing debt — the 580.7M of total liabilities on the balance sheet are operating items (payables, leases, deferred taxes), not borrowings.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    For the stock to work, ABTC must achieve sustained profitability and positive operating cash flow, as it has been negative for the latest period and 0/5 years respectively. This would validate the market's premium valuation.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The biggest fundamental risk is the current ratio of 0.08, which implies severe liquidity issues and a high risk of not meeting short-term obligations if not addressed.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Improvement in net income to positive territory
    • Operating cash flow turning positive
    • Increase in the current ratio above 1.0
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Revenue grew +159% to $185.2M.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Free cash flow is negative at -$81.8M — the cash burn widened vs last year.
    • Swung to a loss of -$153.2M (from a profit the prior year).
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Limited executive data available. American Bitcoin Corp. operates in the financial services sector, focusing on blockchain and cryptocurrency-related services. Without specific executive information provided, it's difficult to assess leadership tenure or specific strategic initiatives.

    WHAT

    What They Make

    American Bitcoin Corp. (ABTC) provides services related to blockchain and cryptocurrency, likely targeting businesses and individuals interested in digital asset transactions and infrastructure.

    End Markets

    Cryptocurrency usersBlockchain developersDigital asset investors

    Revenue Drivers

    Blockchain transaction services
    Digital asset management
    Cryptocurrency mining/hosting
    Market Cap: 7.5BBeta: 2.02
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Facilitates secure digital transactions
    Provides access to cryptocurrency markets
    Offers blockchain infrastructure
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer This company's reported free cash flow is negative, so a discounted-cash-flow valuation has no positive cash stream to discount. That is a fact about the business, not missing data — the reported figures below are complete.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market prices ABTC at a premium of +259.3% to the model, likely due to its impressive revenue growth of 80%/yr over four years. Investors may be optimistic about the company's future prospects in the rapidly evolving blockchain and cryptocurrency space, despite its negative net income and operating cash flow. The market may be assigning value to the potential for new, high-growth blockchain applications or regulatory shifts favoring digital assets, which is not in the model.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Blockchain transaction processing fees
    Digital asset custody and management services
    Consulting or development for blockchain solutions

    The company funds itself through equity raises, as indicated by negative operating cash flow and the 'FCF?Free Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
    Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
    Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
    Full explanation →     negative' flag.

    Growth / Revenue DCF

    Negative free cash flow: revenue/margin growth model used - standard FCF DCF is unreliable for companies still scaling.

    Show advanced inputs
    Revenue Growth50.0%

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project net interest income and fee-income lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Growth / re-investment phase

    Moat Signals

    Early mover in specific blockchain niches
    Proprietary blockchain technology
    Network effects from user adoption

    Revenue has been growing at 80%/yr over four years, from $18M to $185M.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Not available from current data sources. The company's operations are likely concentrated in regions with active cryptocurrency markets.

    Geographic Risks

    Regulatory changes in cryptocurrency markets
    High competition in the blockchain sector
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model bearish, tape neutral
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    51.2NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
    50-Day Average$1.08Price above (+670.4%)Price above its 50-day average = near-term uptrend.
    200-Day Average$3.17Price aboveThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossDeath50-day below 200-dayA "death cross" — the medium trend is below the long trend (often read as bearish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (3 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (3)
    • FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
    • Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
    • Illiquidity discount 15% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From American Bitcoin Corp.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    2025185.2M-153.2M$-0.17
    202471.5M428.9M$0.49
    202365.0M39.6M$0.04
    202210.5M-79.1M$-546.56
    202117.6M-31.3M$-24.44

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    Capital expenditure isn't tagged in this filer's machine-readable data (the CapEx column shows "—"). The free-cash-flow column is therefore operating cash flow less stock-based compensation only — an upper bound on true owner earnings, not the real figure. Companies that report capex under a custom label (some large IFRS filers do) look better here than they are.

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 -79.6M — 2.1M -81.8M
    2024 -54.0M 6.6M 9.2M -69.8M
    2023 -56.0M 1.9M 9.1M -67.0M
    2022 -10.9M 31,884 873,929 -11.8M
    2021 -8.2M 39,263 2.1M -10.3M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: -79.6M − — − 2.1M (SBC & adj.) = -81.8M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets1.2B
    Total Liabilities580.7M
    Equity665.8M
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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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