ALLSTATE CORP (ALL) Stock Analysis

Price updated today · SEC data refreshed 2 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

ALLSTATE CORP

ALL Financial Services Property & Casualty Insurance📄 SEC filings ↗ CUSIP 020002101
Deeply overvalued by model
Price vs model IV Expensive (+161%) Long-term trend (200d) 25% above 200-day DCF applicability High Risk 69/100 High
▾ What's in the 69/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Valuation (price vs model IV) (43%) 92/100 → +39.4
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 71/100 → +22.3
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 30/100 → +7.7
Total69/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend, DCF applicability). It excludes the the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately, which relies on a proxied (estimated) input. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $258.10 · today 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 2 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read ALL (bank / insurer)

Banks and insurers are valued on what they earn on their capital, not on free cash flow — a normal DCF misleads here.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Bank / Insurance lens (P/TBV + ROE) ↓
    Price-to-tangible-book versus return-on-equity is how analysts actually judge a bank cheap or rich.
  2. 2 Financial-health screens ↓
    Watch the trend in profitability and asset quality, not the (not-applicable) bankruptcy score.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
One rule first: never trade out of fear — and that includes the fear of missing out. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not data. If you can't point to the evidence behind a trade, you're more likely to lose. So whichever of these you are, check the data below before you act.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
⚖️
"Is it worth what it costs?"
The valuation trade. Our DCF, the growth the price implies, and a calculator you drive yourself.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.

Is now a good time to buy ALL?

Macro: Neutral / mid-cycle

ALL trades at $258.10 vs an estimated intrinsic value of $98.86 — a +161.1% premium to model IV.

Margin of safety
None — price is above our value
Macro regime
Neutral / mid-cycle
No extreme readings in either direction. Stock selection matters more than macro positioning right now.

Not investment advice. The model can be wrong. Verify the assumptions in the sections below and consider consulting a licensed advisor for significant decisions.

ⓘ Why does ALL trade at $258.10?

ALLSTATE CORP has 267.1 million shares outstanding. At $258.10 per share, the market values all outstanding ALL equity at $68.9 billion. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash. The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values ALL in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
VALUATION RANGE — CROSS-METHOD CHECK

Football field: where does the price sit?

Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.

If FCF grew -5%/yr → 10%/yr (flat 10-yr DCF sweep; model assumes 3.9%)$362$1,119Our model's scenarios (cons→opt growth, weighted 40/35/25)$94$105Current: $258.10$84$357$629$902$1,175
Methods disagree: the price is BELOW 1 of 2 method ranges (If FCF grew -5%/yr → 10%/yr (flat 10-yr DCF sweep; model assumes 3.9%)). That makes the read assumption-sensitive, not "fairly valued" — the verdict depends on which lens you trust.

Industry multiples sourced from: industry similar to Insurance. See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.

PEER BASKET — TIGHT COMPARABLES

How does ALL stack up against its closest peers?

We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to ALL (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If ALL is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, FCF yield (in the table) is usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)
EV / Sales?EV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt).
Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices.
Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding
Full explanation →		 1.3x / 1.7x / 2.0x

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.

What ALL would be worth at the median peer's multiple
$402.69
If ALL traded at the typical (median) peer's EV/Sales multiple, the share price would be about $402.69.
Plain English: the stock currently trades at $258.10. That's 35.9% LESS than peer multiples imply — the stock looks cheap vs peers. Either an opportunity, or the market sees something wrong with this name that doesn't apply to peers.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GP EV/EBIT FCF Yield
TRV TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC. Property & Casualty Insura $62.1B 1.3x — — 9.5%
PGR PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ Property & Casualty Insura $111.3B 1.3x — — 10.1%
AIG AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. Property & Casualty Insura $39.4B 1.8x — — 7.3%
CB Chubb Ltd Property & Casualty Insura $120.9B 2.3x — — 8.2%
HIG HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC. Property & Casualty Insura $34.9B 26.0x — — 10.5%
ACGL ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD. Property & Casualty Insura $31.2B 1.6x — — 13.1%
CINF CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP Property & Casualty Insura $24.4B 2.0x — — 9.6%
WRB BERKLEY W R CORP Property & Casualty Insura $23.7B 42.6x — — 7.0%
BANK / FINANCIAL VALUATION LENS

How to value a bank (not a DCF question)

A bank's economic engine is the shareholder equity on its balance sheet — what the accountants say is left over after all loans, deposits, and liabilities are netted out. The bank earns a percentage on that equity each year (its ROE). So the two questions are: (1) what are you paying per dollar of equity (Price / Book)? and (2) how much is that equity actually earning (ROE)? Free cash flow doesn't work here — banks lend out their cash for a living.

Price-to-Book (P/B)?Price-to-Book (P/B) — Share price divided by book value per share — what you pay for $1 of accounting equity.
Why it matters: For banks and insurers, book value is the regulatory capital they earn returns on. P/B is the cleanest comparison: 1.0× means buying the bank at the same price the accountants say it's worth.
Reference: 0.8–1.2× = fair for average bank · 1.5–2.0× = solid franchise · >2.5× = premium · <0.8× = potentially cheap or distress
Full explanation →
1.80×
Plain English: you pay $1.80 for every $1 of the bank's accounting equity ($114.60/share).
Premium to book — market expects above-average returns on this equity.
Return on Equity (ROE)?Return on Equity (ROE) — How much profit the company generates on every dollar of shareholder equity.
Why it matters: For a bank, ROE is the engine. A bank earning 15% on equity will compound book value at ~15%/year if it retains earnings. Combined with P/B, ROE tells you whether a premium price is supported by returns.
Reference: <8% = weak · 10–12% = solid · 15%+ = excellent · >20% sustained = exceptional franchise
Full explanation →
+33.2%
Plain English: each $100 of shareholder equity earned $33 last year. This is the strong-bank zone.
Return on Assets (ROA)?Return on Assets (ROA) — Net income divided by total assets — how productive each dollar of assets is.
Why it matters: For banks especially, ROA isolates underwriting and operating efficiency from leverage. Two banks with identical ROE may have very different ROAs — one earning it cleanly, one earning it on borrowed money.
Reference: <0.8% = weak · 1.0–1.2% = solid · >1.5% = excellent (very rare for big banks)
Full explanation →
+8.59%
Plain English: the bank earned $8.59 for every $100 of total assets. Strong for a bank (most earn 0.8-1.2%).
ROA differs from ROE because banks borrow ~10× their equity. Big asset base, smaller equity sliver.
Price / Earnings (P/E)?P/E Ratio — Stock price divided by annual earnings per share — how much you pay for $1 of yearly earnings.
Why it matters: High P/E = market expects fast growth or you are overpaying. Low P/E = market expects slow growth or the stock is cheap (sometimes for good reason).
Reference: 12–20 for mature businesses · 25–50 for growth · 80+ for speculative
Full explanation →
5.4×
Plain English: at $38.06 earnings per share, you'd take 5 years of current earnings to recover the share price (if earnings stayed flat).
Modest premium to book — supports 33.2% ROE
Plain English: you pay above book value, but the bank is earning a reasonable return on equity. Typical for solid commercial banks.

Note: this lens skips Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score (validated on industrial companies, not banks). For deeper bank-specific health analysis: check the 10-K's Tier 1 capital ratio, Non-Performing Loan ratio, and CET1 — these are what regulators actually monitor.

FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Not Applicable

Altman Z was calibrated on industrial firms and doesn't apply to banks or insurers — their balance sheets are dominated by loans/securities, not working capital. See the Bank Valuation Lens above for P/B, ROE and ROA — the metrics regulators and analysts actually use to assess bank solvency.

Piotroski F-Score?Piotroski F-Score — A 9-point quality checklist scoring profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
Not Applicable

Piotroski F was built for non-financial firms (gross margin, asset turnover, current ratio all assume an industrial cost structure). For banks, the equivalent quality signals are efficiency ratio, net interest margin, and provision coverage — see the Bank Valuation Lens above.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 9.0%, the figure our model used for ALL. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: at default inputs this calculator mirrors the headline model's three-scenario weighting (conservative/base/optimistic, 40/35/25), so its opening value should land close to the headline intrinsic value of $98.86. A small gap is rounding; a large one would be a data problem — and we check for it below.

Probability-weighted model IV
$98.86
It trades at
$258.10
Premium to model IV
+161.1%
Price is 161% above model IV — it looks overvalued. Change the assumptions below to see what would justify today's price.
We value this stock at two discount rates and report the range between them:
7.5% — beta-based (CAPM), from this stock's Beta?Beta — How much the stock moves when the overall market moves. 1.0 = moves with the market; 1.5 = moves 50% more than the market.
Why it matters: Higher beta = more volatile = should demand higher discount rate. Low beta stocks (utilities, consumer staples) move less.
Reference: Most stocks 0.5–1.5 · Defensives ~0.3 · High-vol tech ~1.5–2.0
Full explanation → of 0.55. The safe Treasury rate plus a premium scaled by how much more (or less) volatile the stock is than the market.
9.0% — sector/quality tier. A simpler hurdle set by industry and business durability: lower for stable, wide-moat companies; higher for speculative or micro-caps.
The headline value and this calculator start at 9.0% — the more conservative sector/quality rate. Drag the slider to the other rate to see the full range.
4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for ALL because it's valued with a bank residual-income model this quick calculator doesn't replicate — see our published value above and the sector lens for the right metrics.

For comparison — the FCF growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation quietly eats returns: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is only ~6% in real purchasing power. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF cancels inflation out of both growth and the discount rate), so this doesn't change the value — it shows what's left of your return after the tax.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think ALL can grow FCF for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$258.10
    Model IV$98.86
    Premium to IV+161.1%
    DCF applicabilityHigh
    Return to IV (3yr, annualized)-27.4%

    ALLSTATE CORP is deeply overvalued, trading at a premium of +108.5% to the model's intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →     of $98.86. The market appears to be paying up for the company's consistent positive operating cash flow, which has been positive for 5/5 years, and its revenue growth of 7.5%/yr over four years. The primary quantifiable risk is the significant divergence between the market price and the model's valuation.

    ⚠️ Financial sector: using residual income model. IV = Book Value + PV(excess earnings).

    As of 2 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    ALL ALLSTATE CORP stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    15.2%
    profit
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    Net profit — 15.2¢ of every dollar ($38.49/sh = latest fiscal-year net income ÷ current shares. The table below shows GAAP diluted EPS of $38.06, computed on that year's weighted-average diluted shares — the share count moved, which is why they differ)
    Costs & taxes — 84.8¢ (on $253.41 revenue/sh)
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: $258/share buys $253.41 of revenue per share per year, generates $38.49 of net income per current share, and $36.54 of owner-earnings free cash flow per current share (latest fiscal year). Each share carries $28.04 of debt. The DCF does not start from that single year — it instead starts from a EPS basis (residual-income model) of $38.49 per share to capture a full cycle.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    For the stock to justify its premium, Allstate must continue its revenue growth trajectory of 7.5%/yr and maintain its consistent positive operating cash flow, demonstrating sustained profitability and market share gains.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The biggest fundamental risk is the significant +108.5% premium to the model's intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →    , implying that if growth rates normalize or profitability faces headwinds, the stock could experience a substantial correction.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Next quarter's revenue growth rate
    • Operating cash flow trends in upcoming reports
    • Changes in the long-term debt levels
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (2024 → 2025)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Revenue grew +6% to $67.69B.
    • Free cash flow rose to $9.76B.
    • Net income grew +120% to $10.28B.
    ⚠ Worsening

    Nothing clearly worsening year-over-year.

    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Tom Wilson has served as the CEO of Allstate since 2007, also holding the Chairman position since 2008. He has overseen the company's operations and strategic direction for over a decade and a half, focusing on its core insurance businesses.

    Tom Wilson
    Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
    Mario Rizzo
    President, Allstate Protection
    Jessie M. Burgett
    Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, General Counsel and Secretary
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Allstate Corporation is a major American insurance company, primarily offering property and casualty insurance products to individuals and businesses. They also provide life insurance and other financial services.

    End Markets

    Personal Lines InsuranceCommercial Lines InsuranceLife & Retirement Solutions

    Revenue Drivers

    Auto insurance premiums
    Homeowners insurance premiums
    Commercial insurance premiums
    Market Cap: 68.9BBeta: 0.55
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Comprehensive coverage options
    Established brand trust and reliability
    Extensive agent network for personalized service
    Intrinsic Value$98.86
    Premium to IV +161.1%
    Return to IV (3yr, annualized) -27.4%

    The market prices ALL at a premium of +108.5% to the model's intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →    , likely due to its consistent financial health signals. Investors are paying for the company's ability to generate positive operating cash flow for 5/5 years and its revenue growth of 7.5%/yr over the last four years, suggesting perceived stability and growth potential despite the model's valuation.

    Three Scenarios, Weighted
    ScenarioIVvs PriceWeight
    Conservative$93.54-63.8%40%
    Base$100.80-60.9%35%
    Optimistic$104.64-59.5%25%
    Weighted$98.86-61.7%100%
    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Collecting premiums for property and casualty insurance policies
    Generating investment income from policyholder reserves
    Selling life insurance and retirement products

    Allstate likely funds itself through retained earnings and premium income, with long-term debt falling from $7976M to $7490M.

    Residual Income High

    Balance-sheet financial (Property & Casualty Insurance): residual income model - book value is meaningful anchor.

    In plain English: we estimate ALL's value by projecting its book value plus the excess return it earns on that capital into the future and converting it back to what it's worth today. We start from $38.49 per share (EPS basis (residual-income model)), assume it grows 3.9% per year for about 5 years (then gradually fades), and discount everything at 9.0% — the yearly return a buyer should demand for this much risk. After that it's assumed to grow 3.0% per year forever (roughly the long-run pace of the whole economy). A higher discount rate or slower growth means a lower value, and vice-versa — change any of these yourself in the calculator above.
    Book value / share$38.49EPS basis (residual-income model) — smoothed, not the latest single year
    Growth (g₁) — 5yr3.9%Source: historical CAGR + sector defaults
    Discount Rate (r)9.0%
    Terminal Growth (gT)3.0%
    Show advanced inputs
    SectorDefault8.0%

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project premium growth, underwriting (combined ratio) and investment income independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Financial institution

    Moat Signals

    Strong brand recognition and customer loyalty
    Extensive distribution network of agents
    Regulatory barriers to entry in insurance markets

    Revenue has shown a positive trend, growing at 7.5%/yr over four years from $50601M to $67685M.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Allstate is headquartered in the United States and primarily operates across all 50 states, offering its insurance and financial products to a broad domestic customer base. Exact geographic segment splits are not available in the provided data.

    Geographic Risks

    Concentration risk in the U.S. property and casualty insurance market, making it susceptible to regional catastrophic events.
    Interest rate fluctuations impacting investment income and policy liabilities.
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model bearish, tape neutral
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    37.6NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
    50-Day Average$212.95Price above (+21.2%)Price above its 50-day average = near-term uptrend.
    200-Day Average$206.90Price aboveThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossGolden50-day above 200-dayA "golden cross" — the medium trend has overtaken the long trend (often read as bullish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (2 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (2)
    • Financial sector: using residual income model. IV = Book Value + PV(excess earnings).
    • Discount rate floored from 7.5% to 9.0% (financial sector minimum).
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From ALLSTATE CORP's SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    202567.7B10.3B$38.06
    202464.1B4.7B$16.99
    202357.1B-188.0M$-1.20
    202251.4B-1.3B$-5.14
    202150.6B1.6B$5.01

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 10.1B 228.0M 123.0M 9.8B
    2024 8.9B 210.0M 125.0M 8.6B
    2023 4.2B 267.0M 73.0M 3.9B
    2022 5.1B 420.0M 93.0M 4.6B
    2021 5.1B 345.0M 120.0M 4.7B

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 10.1B − 228.0M − 123.0M (SBC & adj.) = 9.8B. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a EPS basis (residual-income model), not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets119.8B
    Total Liabilities89.2B
    Equity30.6B
    Total Debt7.5B
    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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