BARCLAYS PLC (BCS) Stock Analysis
BARCLAYS PLC
▾ What's in the 37/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read BCS (bank / insurer)
Banks and insurers are valued on what they earn on their capital, not on free cash flow — a normal DCF misleads here.
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Bank / Insurance lens (P/TBV + ROE) ↓
Price-to-tangible-book versus return-on-equity is how analysts actually judge a bank cheap or rich.
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Financial-health screens ↓
Watch the trend in profitability and asset quality, not the (not-applicable) bankruptcy score.
It files little or nothing with the SEC — so our cash-flow models, financial statements, and U.S. insider data (Form 4) don't apply. What's still real: the live U.S. price and short positioning. Here's what we could pull from other sources:
Barclays is a British universal bank. We are diversified by business, by different types of customers and clients, and by geography. Our businesses include consumer banking and payments operations around the world, as well as a full-service corporate and investment bank.
📑 Read the real filings: latest SEC 6-K ↗
Identity, share count and tier from FINRA + OTC Markets; not a substitute for the home-market financial statements. Thin U.S. disclosure + OTC trading is itself a risk factor.
How does BCS stack up against its closest peers?
We take the 7 same-industry companies most similar to BCS (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If BCS is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, FCF yield (in the table) is usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 7 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (7)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCDL | UBS AG | Banks | $210.8B | — | 1.7% |
| TD | TORONTO DOMINION BANK | Banks | $191.9B | — | — |
| UBS | UBS Group AG | Banks | $178.6B | — | 4.4% |
| USML | UBS AG | Banks | $177.7B | — | 2.0% |
| BNY | Bank of New York Mellon Corp | Banks | $95.7B | — | 5.6% |
| SMFG | SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, I | Banks | $85.3B | — | — |
| VYLD | JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | Banks | $77.9B | — | 70.5% |
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Altman Z was calibrated on industrial firms and doesn't apply to banks or insurers — their balance sheets are dominated by loans/securities, not working capital. See the Bank Valuation Lens above for P/B, ROE and ROA — the metrics regulators and analysts actually use to assess bank solvency.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
Piotroski F was built for non-financial firms (gross margin, asset turnover, current ratio all assume an industrial cost structure). For banks, the equivalent quality signals are efficiency ratio, net interest margin, and provision coverage — see the Bank Valuation Lens above.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → valuation is not meaningful for Barclays PLC because the model implies no positive equity value under current assumptions, as indicated by the 'INVARIANT: weighted IV is non-positive' flag. Investors are likely focused on the bank's book value and its ability to generate excess earnings above its cost of capital. The biggest risk to our assumptions is the low franchise/durability score of 0/5, suggesting significant uncertainty in future earnings stability.
As of 53 days ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Trends in Net Interest Margin (NIM)
- Growth in fee and commission income
- Changes in Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio
Management & Leadership
Barclays PLC is led by Group Chief Executive C.S. Venkatakrishnan, who assumed the role in November 2021. He previously served as Head of Global Markets and Co-President of Barclays Bank PLC. Nigel Higgins has served as Chairman since 2019.
What They Make
Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider offering a wide range of banking and investment services. It generates revenue primarily from interest income on loans, fees for investment banking services, and trading activities, with individuals, corporations, and institutions being its paying customers.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: book value & return on equity (P/TBV + ROE — how banks are actually judged) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is likely pricing Barclays based on its book value and expectations for future excess earnings, given that a standard cash flow model implies no positive equity value. The 'residual_income' model is used, which focuses on the company's ability to generate returns above its cost of equity, rather than just free cash flowFree Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation →. The low franchise/durability score of 0/5 suggests investors are cautious about the long-term stability of its earnings power.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
As a financial institution, Barclays typically manages capital through dividends and strategic investments. Specific dividend or buyback rates are not available in the provided flags, but funding generally comes from retained earnings and debt issuance.
Residual Income
Balance-sheet financial (Banks): residual income model - book value is meaningful anchor.
Show advanced inputs
| Sector Default | 8.0% |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project net interest income and fee-income lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Geography & Markets
Barclays PLC is a UK-headquartered bank with significant international operations, particularly across Europe and the Americas. Exact geographic segment splits are not available in the current filings.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)57.3NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (6 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (6)
- Financial sector: using residual income model. IV = Book Value + PV(excess earnings).
- INVARIANT: weighted IV is non-positive. Model may not be appropriate.
- Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
- Model mismatch: residual income inappropriate for asset-light financial (BVPS $0.00 not meaningful vs price $28). Consider FCF model.
- VALUATION HELD (MODEL_MISMATCH): per-share values suppressed due to the assigned valuation model does not fit this business.
- Extreme valuation gap (P/IV withheld — see the note above): result may be dominated by model assumptions, share count issues, or sector-specific dynamics. Treat as low confidence.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From BARCLAYS PLC's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 1.4T |
| Total Liabilities | — |
| Equity | — |
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