Frontline plc (FRO) Stock Analysis
Frontline plc
▾ What's in the 51/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read FRO
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
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Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
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Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
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Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
A discounted-cash-flow model can only discount POSITIVE cash flows. FRO's free cash flow is currently negative — it's reinvesting / still pre-profit — so a forward DCF can't produce a meaningful number. That's a property of the model, not missing data; the full financials and story are below.
What to use instead: This is exactly where the Reverse-DCF earns its keep: it shows the growth the market is ALREADY pricing in, so you can judge whether that's achievable. Pair it with the EV/Sales peer lens, the Rule-of-40 read, and the cash-runway section — the right tools for a pre-profit company.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — FRO's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
⚠ We found no genuine same-industry (Deep Sea Foreign Transportation of Freight) comparables at all — fewer than the 4 we require for a reliable median. The 8 names in the table below therefore include 8 broader Industrials names marked fallback, whose business models and margins differ — which is why any median below is computed over that wider set, not over true comparables. So we do not derive a peer-implied share value here. Read the multiples as rough context only.
How does FRO stack up against its closest peers?
Ideally we compare FRO only to same-industry peers, but too few exist in our universe right now, so the basket below mixes in broader-sector names. Treat the multiples as rough context, not a valuation. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
| EV / SalesEV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt). Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices. Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding Full explanation → |
1.9x / 2.6x / 4.3x |
| EV / Gross ProfitEV / Gross Profit — Enterprise value divided by gross profit — the multiple paid for what each dollar of sales contributes after direct costs. Why it matters: More refined than EV/Sales for high-margin businesses (software, marketplaces) where gross margin is the real economic engine. Reference: 8–15x for SaaS · 15–25x for hypergrowth software · >30x demanding Full explanation → |
6.9x / 8.5x / 8.7x |
| EV / EBITEV / EBITDA — Enterprise value divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization. Why it matters: A classic "what would a private buyer pay" multiple — used in M&A. Strips out tax and capital-structure noise. Reference: 8–12x for mature businesses · 15–25x for growth · Below 5x often signals distress Full explanation → |
19.3x / 23.6x / 31.0x |
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 peers (broad — see caveat); implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (8)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/Sales | EV/GP | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPXC | SPX Technologies, Inc. | Metalworking Machinery ·fallback | $10.8B | 4.8x | — | 31.0x | 2.1% |
| AIT | APPLIED INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGIES IN | Machinery, Equipment & Sup ·fallback | $11.2B | 2.6x | 8.5x | 23.7x | 3.8% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Co /NV/ | Auto Rental & Leasing ·fallback | $11.4B | 25.6x | — | 45.0x | 0.1% |
| WTS | WATTS WATER TECHNOLOGIES INC | Miscellaneous Fabricated M ·fallback | $10.4B | 4.3x | 8.7x | 23.5x | 3.2% |
| VMI | VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC | Fabricated Metal ·fallback | $10.1B | 2.7x | 8.8x | 26.2x | 2.8% |
| TOL | Toll Brothers, Inc. | Construction (Residential) ·fallback | $13.1B | 1.2x | — | 7.6x | 7.2% |
| TTC | TORO CO | Farm Machinery ·fallback | $8.7B | 2.1x | 6.4x | 23.5x | 6.2% |
| WSO | WATSCO INC | Hardware & Plumbing & Heat ·fallback | $13.9B | 1.9x | 6.9x | 19.3x | 3.6% |
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $379.1M in FY2025.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $62.9M (was $604.1M the prior year).
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✗ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $62.9M vs net income $379.1M.Why this matters: When cash generated exceeds reported earnings, profits are high-quality (not propped up by accruals or one-time items).
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✗ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 6.6% vs 8.0% a year ago.Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $5,753.6M).
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· Short-term liquidity (current ratio) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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✓ Share count (dilution)Share count held roughly flat (222.6M → 222.6M year-over-year).
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· Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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· Sales per asset (asset turnover) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
What if you assume different inputs?
Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount RateDiscount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for FRO. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.
Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.
A full intrinsic value isn't shown for FRO because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.
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⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Frontline plc, as the model implies no positive equity value under its assumptions, indicating the valuation is speculative and low-confidence. This is primarily due to the model's inability to capture the full value of the company's operational cash flows and future growth prospects in the shipping industry. Investors are likely betting on the company's consistent positive operating cash flow and its ability to generate profits, as evidenced by positive net income in 4 out of 5 years. The number one quantifiable risk is the model's inability to produce a positive equity value, suggesting potential mispricing or uncaptured optionality.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What's free cash flow / what do these mean?
Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.
Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.
Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.
Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Trends in global crude oil demand and supply
- Average daily charter rates for VLCCs and Suezmax tankers
- Company's dividend policy and payout ratios
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Free cash flow fell to $62.9M.
- Net income fell -24% to $379.1M.
Nothing was clearly improving year-over-year.
Management & Leadership
Lars H. Barstad serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Frontline plc, a role he has held since 2021. John Fredriksen is a notable figure as the company's founder and primary shareholder, with a long-standing influence on its strategic direction.
What They Make
Frontline plc is a leading international shipping company that transports crude oil and refined petroleum products globally. Its services are primarily utilized by major oil companies, refiners, and traders.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is likely pricing Frontline based on its consistent positive operating cash flow (positive 5/5 years) and profitability (net income positive 4/5 years), rather than a traditional DCFDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → model which struggles with the cyclical nature of shipping. The market may be assigning value to the potential for sustained high charter rates in a tight shipping market, which is not in the model, and the company's ability to reduce long-term debt from $2341M to $0M, significantly strengthening its balance sheet.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
Frontline plc has significantly reduced its long-term debt from $2341M to $0M, indicating a focus on balance sheet strength and potentially future shareholder returns through dividends or buybacks, though specific rates are not provided.
Growth / Revenue DCF
Extreme market premium (P/FCF 123x): market is pricing future growth far beyond current FCF. Using revenue/margin model.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 15.0% |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
The company has demonstrated positive net income in 4 out of 5 years and positive operating cash flow in 5 out of 5 years.
Geography & Markets
Frontline plc operates globally, transporting crude oil and refined products across major international shipping routes. While specific geographic revenue mix percentages are not available, its operations span key regions for oil production and consumption worldwide.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)40.3NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (4 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (3)
- Revenue/margin projection model used - trailing FCF may understate growth runway at current scale.
- INVARIANT: weighted IV is non-positive. Model may not be appropriate.
- Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Frontline plc's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | — | 379.1M | $1.70 |
| 2024 | — | 495.6M | $2.23 |
| 2023 | — | 656.4M | $2.95 |
| 2022 | — | 475.5M | $2.14 |
| 2021 | 640.3M | -15.0M | $-0.06 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
Capital expenditure isn't tagged in this filer's machine-readable data (the CapEx column shows "—"). The free-cash-flow column is therefore operating cash flow less stock-based compensation only — an upper bound on true owner earnings, not the real figure. Companies that report capex under a custom label (some large IFRS filers do) look better here than they are.
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 62.9M | — | — | 62.9M |
| 2020 | 604.1M | — | — | 604.1M |
| 2019 | 280.2M | — | — | 280.2M |
| 2018 | 46.2M | — | — | 46.2M |
| 2017 | 130.5M | — | — | 130.5M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 5.8B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.2B |
| Equity | — |