Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) Stock Analysis
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
▾ What's in the 36/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read GRDN
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
-
1
Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
-
2
Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
-
3
Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
The share count we read for GRDN looks wrong — common for multi-class / founder-controlled filers that report shares per share-class. That makes per-share figures (including intrinsic value) misleading, so we suppressed them. The company's total financials below are sound.
What to use instead: Lean on the totals — revenue, net income, cash flow — and the balance sheet. Multi-class share counts are being corrected; once fixed, the per-share valuation returns automatically.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — GRDN's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
-
✓ Positive net incomeNet income $49.2M in FY2025.
-
✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $100.3M (was $58.0M the prior year).
-
✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $100.3M vs net income $49.2M.
-
✓ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 11.9% vs -34.3% a year ago.
-
✓ Debt load (vs assets)The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $412.7M).
-
✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 1.38x vs 1.05x a year ago.
-
· Share count (dilution) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
-
✓ Pricing power (gross margin)Gross margin 20.2% vs 19.9% a year ago.
-
✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 3.51x vs 3.83x a year ago.Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → valuation is not meaningful for Guardian Pharmacy Services due to the 'Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable' flag, making per-share metrics unreliable. Investors are likely focused on the company's consistent revenue growth and positive operating cash flow, betting on its continued expansion in the pharmacy services sector. The number one quantifiable risk is the 'Franchise/durability score 0/5', indicating a lack of clear competitive advantages.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Continued revenue growth rates above 15%
- Maintenance of positive operating cash flow
- Expansion into new geographic markets
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue grew +18% to $1.45B.
- Free cash flow turned positive at $73.0M.
- Swung to a profit of $49.2M (from a loss the prior year).
Nothing was clearly worsening year-over-year.
Roughly flat: Gross margin held to 20% (+0 pts).
Management & Leadership
Guardian Pharmacy Services is led by its CEO, Fred Burke, who has been instrumental in guiding the company's growth in the long-term care pharmacy market. As a private company, detailed executive tenure and compensation data are not publicly disclosed.
What They Make
Guardian Pharmacy Services provides pharmacy services to long-term care facilities, including assisted living, skilled nursing, and other institutional settings, ensuring residents receive necessary medications.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is likely pricing GRDN based on its consistent revenue growth of 17.9%/yr over the last year and its positive operating cash flow, which has been positive for 2/2 years. Investors are betting on the company's ability to continue expanding its footprint in the long-term care pharmacy market, despite the 'Shares/market cap missing or defaulted' flag making per-share valuation unreliable.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
As a private company, specific dividend or buyback rates are not available; it likely funds growth through retained earnings and potentially private equity or debt financing.
Free Cash Flow DCF
Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 17.9% |
| Sector Default | 8.0% |
| Best Estimate | 15.0% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project same-store sales, store/showroom count and gross margin independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue is growing at 17.9%/yr over 1yr, from $1228M to $1449M.
Geography & Markets
Guardian Pharmacy Services operates primarily across the United States, serving long-term care facilities in various regions. Exact geographic segment percentages are not publicly available.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)60.6NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (5 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (5)
- Shares from unknown — per-share values may be less accurate.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable.
- Shares defaulted to 1; IV is NOT meaningful — treat as data-unavailable.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.4B | 49.2M | — |
| 2024 | 1.2B | -110.0M | — |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 100.3M | 13.4M | 13.9M | 73.0M |
| 2024 | 58.0M | 14.7M | 131.5M | -88.2M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 100.3M − 13.4M − 13.9M (SBC & adj.) = 73.0M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 412.7M |
| Total Liabilities | 194.7M |
| Equity | 217.9M |
Similar companies worth a look
Same sector and industry, similar fundamentals shape. Verify everything yourself — this list is computed mechanically and does not reflect our judgment about whether any of these are a good investment.