MATTEL INC /DE/ (MAT) Stock Analysis

Price updated yesterday · SEC data refreshed 3 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

MATTEL INC /DE/

MAT Consumer Cyclical Sporting Goods & Toys📄 SEC filings ↗
Valuation N/A
Long-term trend (200d) 25% below 200-day Risk 60/100 High
▾ What's in the 60/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 62/100 → +26.6
leverage 40/100 · FCF trend 90/100
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 79/100 → +24.8
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 33/100 → +8.5
Total60/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $13.42 · yesterday 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 3 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read MAT

We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Reported earnings & margins ↓
    What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
  2. 2 Balance sheet & book value ↓
    Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
  3. 3 Who's selling & betting against it ↓
    Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
A note on process: fear-driven decisions — including fear of missing out — tend to be the expensive ones. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not evidence. Whichever reader you are, the data below is there to be checked before anything is decided.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ A share-count quirk blocked the per-share math

The share count we read for MAT looks wrong — common for multi-class / founder-controlled filers that report shares per share-class. That makes per-share figures (including intrinsic value) misleading, so we suppressed them. The company's total financials below are sound.

What to use instead: Lean on the totals — revenue, net income, cash flow — and the balance sheet. Multi-class share counts are being corrected; once fixed, the per-share valuation returns automatically.

This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — MAT's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.

ⓘ Why does MAT trade at $13.42?

MATTEL INC /DE/ has 321.8 million shares outstanding. At $13.42 per share, the market values all outstanding MAT equity at $4.3 billion. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash — and it matters here because MAT carries substantial debt. The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values MAT in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
Checking filings for failure warnings…
PEER BASKET — TIGHT COMPARABLES

How does MAT stack up against its closest peers?

We take the 4 same-industry companies most similar to MAT (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If MAT is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)
EV / Sales?EV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt).
Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices.
Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding
Full explanation →		 1.6x / 2.0x / 2.4x
EV / Gross Profit?EV / Gross Profit — Enterprise value divided by gross profit — the multiple paid for what each dollar of sales contributes after direct costs.
Why it matters: More refined than EV/Sales for high-margin businesses (software, marketplaces) where gross margin is the real economic engine.
Reference: 8–15x for SaaS · 15–25x for hypergrowth software · >30x demanding
Full explanation →		 3.2x / 3.5x / 5.0x
EV / EBIT?EV / EBITDA — Enterprise value divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization.
Why it matters: A classic "what would a private buyer pay" multiple — used in M&A. Strips out tax and capital-structure noise.
Reference: 8–12x for mature businesses · 15–25x for growth · Below 5x often signals distress
Full explanation →		 17.4x / 20.5x / 21.3x

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 4 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.

Peer-implied value check
$30.13
If MAT traded at the typical (median) peer's EV/Sales multiple, the share price would be about $30.13.
Plain English: the stock currently trades at $13.42. That's 55.5% LESS than peer multiples imply — the stock looks cheap vs peers. Either an opportunity, or the market sees something wrong with this name that doesn't apply to peers.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GPEV/EBIT FCF Yield
YETI YETI Holdings, Inc. Sporting Goods & Toys $3.6B 2.0x 3.5x17.4x 4.2%
GOLF Acushnet Holdings Corp. Sporting Goods & Toys $5.2B 2.4x 5.0x20.5x 3.1%
CALY Callaway Golf Co Sporting Goods & Toys $2.8B 2.0x —21.3x 10.0%
PTON PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. Sporting Goods & Toys $2.5B 1.6x 3.2x— 3.8%
WING Wingstop Inc. Restaurants ·fallback $4.3B 7.9x —30.7x 1.8%
TNL Travel & Leisure Co. Hotels & Motels ·fallback $4.2B 2.4x —17.8x 10.2%
VSCO Victoria's Secret & Co. Women's Clothing Stores ·fallback $4.4B 0.7x 1.9x16.3x 5.6%
THO THOR INDUSTRIES INC Motor Vehicles ·fallback $4.2B 0.5x 3.8x— 10.4%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Not available for this filer

The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.

Piotroski F-Score?Piotroski F-Score — A 9-point quality checklist scoring profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
5 / 9
Mediocre
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✓ Positive net income
    Net income $397.6M in FY2025.
  • ✓ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow $593.3M (was $800.6M the prior year).
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow $593.3M vs net income $397.6M.
  • ✗ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets 6.0% vs 8.3% a year ago.
    Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 35.1% of assets vs 35.7% a year ago ($2,331.7M of $6,640.4M assets).
  • ✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 2.15x vs 2.38x a year ago.
    Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
  • ✓ Share count (dilution)
    Share count declined 6.3% (343.3M → 321.8M year-over-year), so the no-dilution check passed. (One-year change; the multi-year buyback pace can differ.)
  • ✗ Pricing power (gross margin)
    Gross margin 48.7% vs 50.8% a year ago.
    Why this matters: Rising gross margin means stronger pricing power or lower input costs — a sign of competitive strength. Falling margin signals pressure.
  • ✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.81x vs 0.82x a year ago.
    Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for MAT. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for MAT because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a nominal return: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is about 6% in real terms. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF carries inflation in both the growth and the discount rate), so this switch does not change the value — it restates the return in real terms.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think MAT can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$13.42
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. The other valuation lenses on this page (reverse-DCF, peers, sector lens — whichever apply to this filer) carry the read instead.

    A standard discounted cash flow?DCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
    Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
    Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
    Full explanation →     valuation is not meaningful for Mattel due to an extreme valuation discrepancy where the market price is 5.7 times the model's intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →    , suggesting the model is not capturing key market drivers. Investors are likely focused on the company's consistent positive net income and operating cash flow, along with its brand strength and potential for future growth initiatives. The #1 quantifiable risk is the roughly flat revenue trend of -0.5% per year over the last four years.

    ⚠️ Operating CF declining

    As of 3 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    MAT MATTEL INC /DE/ stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    7.4%
    profit
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    Net profit — 7.4¢ of every dollar ($1.24/sh — latest fiscal-year net income per share)
    Costs & taxes — 92.6¢ (on $16.62 revenue/sh)
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: each share (at $13) represents $16.62 of revenue per share per year, $1.24 of net income per current share, and $1.60 of free cash flow per share from the latest fiscal year. Each share carries $7.25 of total debt (interest-bearing borrowings, current + long-term).
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    The company must successfully leverage its intellectual property into higher-margin entertainment and media ventures to drive revenue re-acceleration beyond the current -0.5%/yr decline.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    If the roughly flat revenue trend continues without significant growth from new initiatives, the current market valuation may be unsustainable given the extreme valuation discrepancy.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Growth in entertainment and media segment revenues
    • New product line successes or brand revitalizations
    • Further reduction in long-term debt
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ⚠ Worsening
    • Free cash flow fell to $513.5M.
    • Gross margin shrank to 49% (-2 pts).
    • Net income fell -27% to $397.6M.

    Nothing was clearly improving year-over-year.

    Roughly flat: Revenue was flat -1% to $5.35B.

    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Ynon Kreiz has served as Chairman and CEO of Mattel since April 2018, leading the company's transformation and brand revitalization efforts. He focuses on leveraging Mattel's intellectual property across various entertainment platforms.

    Ynon Kreiz
    Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
    Anthony DiSilvestro
    Chief Financial Officer
    Jonathan Anschell
    General Counsel and Secretary
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Mattel designs, manufactures, and markets a wide variety of toys and consumer products globally. Its products are primarily purchased by children and collectors through various retail channels.

    End Markets

    Children's entertainmentCollectible marketsLicensed merchandise

    Revenue Drivers

    Barbie products
    Hot Wheels products
    Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends
    Market Cap: 4.3BBeta: 1.07
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Brand recognition and nostalgia
    Entertainment and play value
    Collectibility and cultural relevance
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer We aren't publishing a discounted-cash-flow value here: the model's output failed our plausibility checks, so showing it would imply more precision than we have.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market is likely pricing Mattel based on expectations of future growth and the value of its extensive intellectual property portfolio, rather than solely on trailing cash flows. The extreme valuation discrepancy (price 5.7x model IV) suggests investors are betting on successful monetization of its brands beyond traditional toy sales, such as through media and entertainment, which are not fully captured by a standard cash flow model. The company's consistent positive net income and operating cash flow also provide a stable foundation for these future bets.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Sales of toys and games
    Licensing of intellectual property
    Consumer products and entertainment content

    The company is retiring 2.6% of its shares per year, boosting per-share growth, and has been reducing its long-term debt.

    Free Cash Flow DCF Moderate franchise

    Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation. High P/FCF (82x) - market pricing significant growth.

    Show advanced inputs
    Revenue Growth-0.5%
    Eps Growth-16.4%
    Historical Fcf Growth4.8%
    Sector Default8.0%
    Best Estimate3.0%
    Methodblend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector)+buyback(2.6%)
    Growth Basistotal

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Mature compounder

    Moat Signals

    Strong brand portfolio (Barbie, Hot Wheels)
    Extensive global distribution network
    Intellectual property and licensing agreements

    Revenue has been roughly flat, declining -0.5% per year over the last four years, while net income has been positive for the latest five years.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Mattel operates globally, with significant sales in North America, Europe, Latin America, and Asia Pacific. While specific geographic mix percentages are not available in the provided data, its brands have worldwide recognition and distribution.

    Geographic Risks

    Dependence on key brands (e.g., Barbie, Hot Wheels) for a significant portion of revenue
    Exposure to global economic downturns impacting consumer spending on discretionary items
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model neutral, tape neutral - aligned.
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    48.6NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
    50-Day Average$14.83Price below (-9.5%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$17.81Price belowThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossDeath50-day below 200-dayA "death cross" — the medium trend is below the long trend (often read as bearish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    NEWS

    What's been happening

    Mattel has experienced a period of mixed performance over the last six months. The company has seen continued strength in its Barbie segment, particularly following the success of the Barbie movie, which has boosted brand relevance and sales. However, other segments, such as infant and toddler products, have faced headwinds, impacting overall revenue growth. Operational changes include efforts to streamline supply chains and manage inventory levels, aiming to improve margins. The company has also focused on new product launches and licensing agreements to diversify its portfolio and maintain market share in a competitive toy industry.

    Aggregate sentiment: mixed (0.20)
    • strong performance of core brands (Barbie, Hot Wheels)
    • challenges in infant/toddler segment
    • strategic licensing agreements
    • supply chain optimization efforts
    Mattel Reports Strong Q3 2023 Results Driven by Barbie and Hot Wheels Reuters · 2023-10-25

    Mattel announced its third-quarter 2023 financial results, showing an increase in net sales, primarily attributed to the strong performance of its Barbie and Hot Wheels brands. This indicates continued consumer demand for its core franchises.

    Source →
    Mattel Expands Partnership with Disney for Princess and Frozen Franchises Bloomberg · 2023-11-08

    Mattel secured an expanded multi-year global licensing agreement with Disney for its Princess and Frozen franchises, allowing Mattel to continue producing dolls and toys based on these popular characters. This agreement is crucial for Mattel's girls' toy segment.

    Source →
    Mattel Announces New Leadership for its Global Supply Chain wire · 2023-12-15

    Mattel appointed a new head for its global supply chain operations, signaling a strategic focus on optimizing logistics and manufacturing processes. This move aims to enhance efficiency and potentially improve profit margins.

    Source →
    Mattel's Fisher-Price Segment Faces Challenges in Latest Earnings Report The Wall Street Journal · 2024-01-31

    While overall results were positive, Mattel's Fisher-Price segment, which includes infant and toddler products, reported a decline in sales in the recent earnings call. This indicates a softer demand in certain product categories.

    Source →
    Mattel Unveils New Product Lines and Collaborations at Toy Fair Seeking Alpha · 2024-02-28

    Mattel showcased several new toy lines and collaborations at a recent industry event, including new Barbie collections and Hot Wheels innovations. These product launches are intended to drive future sales and maintain brand relevance.

    Source →

    News summary written by Gemini gemini-2.5-flash, refreshed Sep 10, 2026. AI can be wrong; verify before acting.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (5 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    MEDIUM Operating CF declining
    Guardrail Notes (4)
    • Per-share growth boosted by buybacks: the company is retiring 2.6% of its shares per year, which adds directly to per-share growth on top of business growth. Final per-share growth used by the model: 5.6%/yr.
    • Price is far above the model output - market may be pricing optionality, narrative catalysts, or margin expansion beyond what trailing cash flows support.
    • Extreme valuation (P/IV withheld — see the note above); output dominated by data/units issue (often a multi-class share-count mismatch). Suppressed.
    • DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From MATTEL INC /DE/'s SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    20255.3B397.6M$1.24
    20245.4B541.8M$1.58
    20235.4B214.4M$0.60
    20225.4B393.9M$1.10
    20215.5B903.0M$2.53

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    Capital expenditure isn't tagged in this filer's machine-readable data (the CapEx column shows "—"). The free-cash-flow column is therefore operating cash flow less stock-based compensation only — an upper bound on true owner earnings, not the real figure. Companies that report capex under a custom label (some large IFRS filers do) look better here than they are.

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 593.3M — 79.7M 513.5M
    2024 800.6M — 79.4M 721.1M
    2023 869.8M — 83.3M 786.5M
    2022 442.8M — 69.1M 373.8M
    2021 485.5M — 60.1M 425.4M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 593.3M − — − 79.7M (SBC & adj.) = 513.5M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets6.6B
    Total Liabilities4.4B (derived)
    Equity2.2B
    Total Debt2.3B
    VIDEOS

    Recent video coverage

    Top recent YouTube videos by date. We don't endorse the channels — these are surfaced for context.

    YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

    Similar companies worth a look

    Same sector and industry, similar fundamentals shape. Verify everything yourself — this list is computed mechanically and does not reflect our judgment about whether any of these are a good investment.

    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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