SPIRE INC (SRJN) Stock Analysis
SPIRE INC
▾ What's in the 35/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read SRJN (regulated utility)
A regulator sets what a utility can earn, so its value tracks book value, dividend yield and payout — not a free-market DCF.
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Utility lens (P/B, yield, payout) ↓
These are the metrics utility-fund managers actually use.
Standard DCF doesn't fit SRJN well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Utility Valuation Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value gas utilities. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Regulated utilities carry high leverage backed by long-life assets and regulator-set rate-base returns — Altman Z flags both as distress signals even when the business is stable. See the Utility Lens above for the metrics that matter (P/B, dividend yield, payout ratio).
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
Piotroski F's checks (operating cash flow, gross-margin trend, current ratio, asset turnover) assume an industrial cost structure, so they misread asset-heavy or financial businesses like this one — a healthy REIT, utility, pipeline, BDC/fund or holding company can score low for reasons that aren't weakness. See the sector lens above for the metrics that actually matter.
SRJN (Spire Inc.) trades at a deep discount of 100% to the model's intrinsic valueIntrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
Full explanation →. The market is likely discounting the stock due to its current ratio of 0.32, indicating current liabilities exceed liquid assets, and its rising long-term debt. The primary quantifiable risk is the significant disparity between the current price and the model's valuation, suggesting potential underlying issues not fully captured by the model or significant market skepticism.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Improvement in the current ratio in upcoming filings
- Stabilization or reduction in long-term debt
- Continued positive operating cash flow trends
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Net income grew +8% to $271.7M.
- Revenue fell -4% to $2.48B.
- Free cash flow is negative at -$351.1M — the cash burn widened vs last year.
Management & Leadership
Suzanne S. Sitherwood has served as President and CEO of Spire Inc. since 2012, also holding the Chairman position since 2013. She has overseen the company's strategic direction and operations for over a decade.
What They Make
Spire Inc. is a natural gas utility company that delivers natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. It also operates gas marketing and storage businesses.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market prices SRJN at a 100% discount to the model, likely due to concerns about its financial health. Specifically, the current ratio of 0.32, which is below 1, indicates a potential liquidity issue where current liabilities exceed liquid assets. Additionally, long-term debt has been rising from $2939M to $3369M, which could be a factor in the market's cautious valuation despite positive net income and operating cash flow.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company pays a dividend derived from its cash-flow statement, estimated at $3103918.23/yr, indicating a return of capital to shareholders.
Dividend Discount
Utility (Gas Utilities): dividend discount model - growth is regulated and yield is the primary driver.
Show advanced inputs
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project production volumes, realized commodity prices and unit cash costs independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been roughly flat, growing at 2.6%/yr over the last four years, while net income and operating cash flow have been positive for 5/5 years.
Geography & Markets
Spire Inc. is a US-headquartered utility company primarily serving customers across the Midwest, including Missouri, Alabama, and Mississippi. Specific geographic revenue mix percentages are not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)28.9OversoldHeavily sold off recently — sometimes a bounce setup, sometimes a falling knife.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (4 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (3)
- Dividend derived from cash-flow statement ($3103918.23/yr; SEC has no per-share dividend feed).
- Illiquidity discount 7% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Dividend data sparse; DDM using estimated yield. Confidence reduced.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From SPIRE INC's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.5B | 271.7M | $4.37 |
| 2024 | 2.6B | 250.9M | $4.19 |
| 2023 | 2.7B | 217.5M | $3.85 |
| 2022 | 2.2B | 220.8M | $3.95 |
| 2021 | 2.2B | 271.7M | $4.96 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 578.0M | 922.4M | 6.7M | -351.1M |
| 2024 | 912.4M | 861.3M | 5.8M | 45.3M |
| 2023 | 440.2M | 662.5M | 9.8M | -232.1M |
| 2022 | 55.0M | 552.2M | 6.4M | -503.6M |
| 2021 | 249.8M | 624.8M | 13.9M | -388.9M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 578.0M − 922.4M − 6.7M (SBC & adj.) = -351.1M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a TTM dividend, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 11.6B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.2B (derived) |
| Equity | 3.4B |
| Total Debt | 3.4B |
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