ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (STKS) Stock Analysis

Price updated 2 days ago · SEC data refreshed 3 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.

STKS Consumer Cyclical Restaurants📄 SEC filings ↗
Speculative
Long-term trend (200d) 25% below 200-day Risk 49/100 Elevated
▾ What's in the 49/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 62/100 → +26.6
leverage 62/100
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 45/100 → +14.1
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 33/100 → +8.5
Total49/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $1.58 · 2 days ago 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 3 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read STKS (speculative micro-cap)

No model can pin a precise fair value on a company this small — but that does not mean there is nothing to learn. The useful questions are what the price is betting on, and whether the company can survive long enough to deliver it.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Reverse-DCF — what growth the price assumes ↓
    The single most useful number here: it backs out the growth the market is paying for. If that figure is "historically unprecedented," the price is running on hype, not fundamentals.
  2. 2 Cash runway ↓
    A pre-profit micro-cap lives or dies on whether it can fund itself to profitability before running out of money and diluting you.
  3. 3 The raw financial statements + the 10-K ↓
    At this scale, the actual numbers, insider ownership, and share-count trend tell you more than any ratio.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
A note on process: fear-driven decisions — including fear of missing out — tend to be the expensive ones. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not evidence. Whichever reader you are, the data below is there to be checked before anything is decided.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Using the right valuation lens for this business type

Standard DCF doesn't fit STKS well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Rule of 40 (Pre-Profit Growth) Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value restaurants. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.

ⓘ Why does STKS trade at $1.58?

ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. has 31.0 million shares outstanding. At $1.58 per share, the market values all outstanding STKS equity at $49 million. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash — and it matters here because STKS carries substantial debt. The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values STKS in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
Checking filings for failure warnings…
⚠️ BUSINESS-MODEL ADVISORY — SPECULATIVE NANO / MICRO-CAP

How to read a company this small

STKS is too small and/or too volatile for the valuation lenses we use on larger, more stable companies. The numbers shown below should be taken as rough orientation only.

✅ What actually drives value for this kind of company
  • Market cap $49.0M — nano-cap territory (below $50M)
❌ Metrics that DON'T apply (ignore these even if you see them below)

Growth percentages on tiny revenue bases (1000% going from $200K to $2M is not predictive). P/E and ROE swing wildly with small earnings changes. Peer comparisons fail because there often aren't comparable companies at this scale.

📚 Where to actually look

Start with the Reverse-DCF above — it backs out the growth the price is betting on; if that figure is "historically unprecedented," the price is running on hype, not fundamentals. Then the cash runway (can it fund itself to profitability before diluting you?). Then the raw Financials table and the 10-K on SEC EDGAR — at this scale, insider ownership and the share-count trend often matter more than any ratio.

Classified as Speculative Nano / Micro-cap (confidence 80%). Disagree? An admin can override via the post edit screen.

PEER BASKET — TIGHT COMPARABLES

⚠ Genuine comparables are scarce at this size, so peer multiples are unreliable here. Treat as rough context only — see 📍 What to focus on above.

How does STKS stack up against its closest peers?

We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to STKS (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If STKS is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)
EV / Sales?EV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt).
Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices.
Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding
Full explanation →		 0.2x / 0.4x / 0.7x

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.

Peer-implied value check
Peer-implied value isn't meaningful for STKS: its net debt per share is larger than what peers' sales multiples imply the whole enterprise is worth — a sign of heavy leverage, where almost all of the enterprise value belongs to lenders rather than shareholders. The multiples table above still works as context.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GPEV/EBIT FCF Yield
BDL FLANIGANS ENTERPRISES INC Restaurants $63M 0.4x —9.6x 7.4%
THCH TH International Ltd Restaurants $64M — —— —
NDLS NOODLES & Co Restaurants $74M 0.4x —— 159.5%
LVO LiveOne, Inc. Restaurants $77M 0.7x —— 1.9%
RRGB RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS INC Restaurants $94M 0.2x —94.6x 5.3%
ARKR ARK RESTAURANTS CORP Restaurants $23M 0.1x —— 145.8%
MB MASTERBEEF GROUP Restaurants $122M — —— —
BRCB Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Restaurants $142M 0.8x —188.1x 5.7%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Bankruptcy + quality screens

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
0.88
Distress zone

Distress zone under the classic Altman thresholds — scores here have historically preceded a high rate of financial distress within ~2 years. This is a warning signal, not a direct bankruptcy probability, and its reliability varies by industry. Be very skeptical of any "cheap" valuation on this name.

The classic Z-score was calibrated on manufacturers. It is less reliable for asset-light or non-manufacturing businesses (broadcasters, media, software, services) and not applicable to banks, REITs, or insurers — for those the coefficients and the asset-turnover term distort the result. Read it as one screening input, not a verdict.

Piotroski-style checks (partial — not a standard F-score)
4 passed · 4 failed · 1 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 4 of 8 measurable checks passed. 1 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 8, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✗ Positive net income
    Net income -$92.2M in FY2025.
    Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
  • ✓ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow $30.3M (was $44.2M the prior year).
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow $30.3M vs net income -$92.2M.
  • ✗ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets -10.4% vs -1.8% a year ago.
    Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
  • ✗ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 40.1% of assets vs 36.3% a year ago ($354.2M of $884.2M assets).
    Why this matters: Rising debt relative to assets means more risk and more cash going to interest instead of shareholders. Falling debt is a sign of strengthening.
  • ✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 0.43x vs 0.53x a year ago — below 1.0, a caution flag.
    Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
  • ✓ Share count (dilution)
    Share count held roughly flat (31.2M → 31.0M year-over-year).
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • ✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.91x vs 0.70x a year ago.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for STKS. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for STKS because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a nominal return: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is about 6% in real terms. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF carries inflation in both the growth and the discount rate), so this switch does not change the value — it restates the return in real terms.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think STKS can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$1.58
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. The other valuation lenses on this page (reverse-DCF, peers, sector lens — whichever apply to this filer) carry the read instead.

    A standard discounted cash flow?DCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
    Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
    Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
    Full explanation →     (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (STKS) because the model projects an implausibly high intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →     compared to its current price, likely due to a share-count or units error, and the company has negative net income in the latest period. Investors are likely betting on continued revenue growth, which has been strong at 30.6% annually, and the company's ability to sustain positive operating cash flow. The number one quantifiable risk is the rising long-term debt, which has increased from $25M to $354M.

    ⚠️ Operating CF declining

    As of 3 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    STKS ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    −11.4%
    loss
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    For every $1 of revenue, STKS currently loses 11.4¢ — costs exceed sales. A money-losing business can still be a good investment if losses are shrinking toward profitability; check the trend, not just the snapshot.
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: each share (at $2) represents $25.98 of revenue per share per year, $2.97 lost per share per year, and $1.05 of cash burned per share (negative free cash flow) from the latest fiscal year. Each share carries $11.42 of total debt (interest-bearing borrowings, current + long-term).
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    Operating cash flow must continue to be positive and grow, allowing the company to fund expansion and reduce reliance on debt, especially given the current ratio of 0.43.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The rising long-term debt from $25M to $354M, coupled with negative net income in the latest period, implies increasing financial risk if profitability does not improve to service this debt.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Next quarter's revenue growth rate
    • Improvement in net income profitability
    • Reduction in long-term debt or improvement in current ratio
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Revenue grew +20% to $805.7M.
    • Free cash flow is negative at -$32.7M — the cash burn narrowed vs last year.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Still unprofitable at -$92.2M — loss widening.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Emanuel 'Manny' Hilario serves as the President and CEO of ONE Group Hospitality, Inc., a role he has held since 2014. He also serves as a member of the Board of Directors. Jonathan Segal is the Founder and Executive Chairman.

    Emanuel Hilario
    President and Chief Executive Officer
    Jonathan Segal
    Founder and Executive Chairman
    WHAT

    What They Make

    ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. develops, manages, and operates upscale restaurants and lounges, primarily under The STK and Kona Grill brands, catering to diners seeking a premium dining and entertainment experience.

    End Markets

    Upscale DiningHospitality & EntertainmentCasual Dining

    Revenue Drivers

    STK restaurant sales
    Kona Grill restaurant sales
    Venue management services
    Market Cap: 49.0MBeta: 1.17
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Premium dining experience
    Vibrant social atmosphere
    Diverse menu offerings
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer This company's reported free cash flow is negative, so a discounted-cash-flow valuation has no positive cash stream to discount. That is a fact about the business, not missing data — the reported figures below are complete.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market is likely pricing STKS based on its strong revenue growth of 30.6% annually over four years and consistent positive operating cash flow, which has been positive for five consecutive years. The market may be assigning value to the potential for further brand expansion and new venue openings, which is not fully captured in a backward-looking cash flow model, despite the company's negative net income in the latest period and rising long-term debt.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Restaurant food and beverage sales
    Management and consulting fees from managed venues
    Franchise fees and royalties

    The company funds its operations and growth through its positive operating cash flow and has seen its long-term debt rise from $25M to $354M.

    Growth / Revenue DCF

    Negative free cash flow: revenue/margin growth model used - standard FCF DCF is unreliable for companies still scaling.

    Show advanced inputs
    Revenue Growth30.6%

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Growth / re-investment phase

    Moat Signals

    Established brand recognition (STK, Kona Grill)
    Proprietary operational expertise in upscale dining
    Strategic urban and high-traffic locations

    Revenue has been growing at 30.6% per year over the last four years, from $277M to $806M.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. primarily operates its restaurants and lounges across major metropolitan areas within the United States, with some international locations. Exact geographic segment percentages are not available from current data sources.

    Geographic Risks

    Concentration risk in urban entertainment districts
    Sensitivity to discretionary consumer spending
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model neutral, tape neutral - aligned.
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    47.4NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
    50-Day Average$1.84Price below (-14.1%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$2.10Price belowThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossDeath50-day below 200-dayA "death cross" — the medium trend is below the long trend (often read as bearish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (5 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    MEDIUM Operating CF declining
    Guardrail Notes (4)
    • FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
    • Illiquidity discount 15% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
    • Extreme valuation: intrinsic value ($54.84) is implausibly HIGH vs price $1.85 (P/IV withheld — see the note above) — usually a share-count or units error. Suppressed.
    • DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    2025805.7M-92.2M$-4.05
    2024673.3M-17.1M$-1.16
    2023332.8M4.7M$0.15
    2022316.6M13.5M$0.40
    2021277.2M31.3M$0.93

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 30.3M 57.6M 5.4M -32.7M
    2024 44.2M 71.6M 6.0M -33.4M
    2023 30.8M 53.6M 5.0M -27.8M
    2022 25.3M 32.6M 4.0M -11.4M
    2021 31.0M 11.5M 3.2M 16.3M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 30.3M − 57.6M − 5.4M (SBC & adj.) = -32.7M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets884.2M
    Total Liabilities772.7M
    Equity-75.8M
    Total Debt354.2M
    YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed June 11, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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