Franklin XRP Trust (XRPZ) Stock Analysis
Franklin XRP Trust
▾ What's in the 44/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend, DCF applicability). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read XRPZ (Bitcoin fund)
XRPZ holds Bitcoin on your behalf — it is not a business, so there are no cash flows to value. Its price tracks Bitcoin. What matters is your view on Bitcoin, the fund's fee, and how close the price trades to the value of the coins it holds.
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Why normal valuation doesn't apply ↓
Bitcoin has no earnings or cash flow — a DCF, P/E or book-value model tells you nothing here. Your return is ~100% the coin's price.
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Anatomy of a share ↓
What one share actually represents in terms of the fund's holdings.
How to value XRPZ
Franklin XRP Trust isn't a business — it's a fund that holds Bitcoin on your behalf. There are no revenues, earnings, or cash flows to discount, so a DCF, P/E, or book-value model tells you nothing. Each share represents a fixed slice of the fund's Bitcoin, so the price simply tracks the price of Bitcoin (minus a small annual fee). An intrinsic-value "verdict" would be meaningless here, so we don't show one.
- Your view on Bitcoin — that's ~100% of the return. This page can't tell you whether Bitcoin itself is cheap or expensive.
- Expense ratio — the annual fee skims your holding every year. Spot Bitcoin funds range from ~0.12% to ~1.5%; for a long hold, lower is better.
- Premium / discount to NAV — aim to pay close to the value of the coins the fund holds, not a markup over them.
- Structure & custody — a modern spot ETF vs an older trust, and who actually custodies the coins.
Crypto is highly volatile and speculative. Educational only — not investment advice.
Football field: where does the price sit?
Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.
Industry multiples sourced from: broad market average (sector unknown). See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.
How does XRPZ stack up against its closest peers?
We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to XRPZ (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If XRPZ is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (8)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/Sales | EV/GP | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTM | GraniteShares Platinum Trust | Investment Banking | $223M | — | — | — | 21.5% |
| SOYB | Teucrium Commodity Trust | Investment Banking | $196M | — | — | — | — |
| TAGS | Teucrium Commodity Trust | Investment Banking | $192M | — | — | — | — |
| PPLT | abrdn Platinum ETF Trust | Investment Banking | $237M | — | — | — | 603.5% |
| WEAT | Teucrium Commodity Trust | Investment Banking | $182M | — | — | — | — |
| PALL | abrdn Palladium ETF Trust | Investment Banking | $149M | — | — | — | 265.3% |
| UDN | INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH | Investment Banking | $144M | — | — | 35.0x | 6.2% |
| TOXR | 21Shares XRP ETF | Investment Banking | $143M | — | — | — | — |
How to value a bank (not a DCF question)
A bank's economic engine is the shareholder equity on its balance sheet — what the accountants say is left over after all loans, deposits, and liabilities are netted out. The bank earns a percentage on that equity each year (its ROE). So the two questions are: (1) what are you paying per dollar of equity (Price / Book)? and (2) how much is that equity actually earning (ROE)? Free cash flow doesn't work here — banks lend out their cash for a living.
Why it matters: For banks and insurers, book value is the regulatory capital they earn returns on. P/B is the cleanest comparison: 1.0× means buying the bank at the same price the accountants say it's worth.
Reference: 0.8–1.2× = fair for average bank · 1.5–2.0× = solid franchise · >2.5× = premium · <0.8× = potentially cheap or distress
Full explanation →
Below $1 = you're paying less than the equity is "worth" on paper.
Note: this lens skips Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score (validated on industrial companies, not banks). For deeper bank-specific health analysis: check the 10-K's Tier 1 capital ratio, Non-Performing Loan ratio, and CET1 — these are what regulators actually monitor.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Altman Z was calibrated on industrial firms and doesn't apply to banks or insurers — their balance sheets are dominated by loans/securities, not working capital. See the Bank Valuation Lens above for P/B, ROE and ROA — the metrics regulators and analysts actually use to assess bank solvency.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
Piotroski F was built for non-financial firms (gross margin, asset turnover, current ratio all assume an industrial cost structure). For banks, the equivalent quality signals are efficiency ratio, net interest margin, and provision coverage — see the Bank Valuation Lens above.
Franklin XRP Trust (XRPZ) trades at a 2.1% premium to our model's intrinsic valueIntrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
Full explanation →. The market is paying up for its exposure to XRP, despite a low franchise/durability score of 0/5. The biggest risk to our model's base assumptions is that the underlying asset's value declines, as the trust's franchise/durability score is 0/5, indicating no inherent competitive advantage.
As of 11 days ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Changes in XRP price performance
- Regulatory developments concerning XRP and digital assets
- Inflows/outflows of assets under management for the trust
Management & Leadership
Franklin Templeton, a well-established asset manager, launched the Franklin XRP Trust. While specific executives for this particular trust are not widely publicized, Jenny Johnson serves as the President and CEO of Franklin Templeton, overseeing its broad range of investment products.
What They Make
Franklin XRP Trust is an investment vehicle that provides investors with exposure to XRP, a digital asset. Investors pay the trust for shares that represent a fractional ownership of the XRP held by the trust.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
XRPZ trades at a premium of +2.1% to our model, indicating the market is willing to pay more for direct exposure to XRP through a regulated trust. This optimism persists despite the trust's franchise/durability score of 0/5, suggesting the market values the underlying asset's potential growth over the trust's inherent competitive advantages.
Three Scenarios, Weighted
| Scenario | IV | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $10.62 | -2.2% | 40% |
| Base | $11.74 | 8.2% | 35% |
| Optimistic | $12.58 | 15.9% | 25% |
| Weighted | $11.50 | 6.0% | 100% |
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
As a trust, XRPZ primarily generates revenue through management fees and does not engage in dividends or buybacks; its capital structure is tied to the value of its underlying XRP holdings.
Residual Income High
Balance-sheet financial (Investment Banking): residual income model - book value is meaningful anchor.
Show advanced inputs
| SectorDefault | 8.0% |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project net interest income and fee-income lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Geography & Markets
Franklin XRP Trust operates within the global financial markets, offering exposure to XRP, a digital asset with worldwide accessibility. The trust itself is likely domiciled in a jurisdiction favorable to digital asset investment products, though specific geographic revenue mix is not available.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)45.7NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (2 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (2)
- Financial sector: using residual income model. IV = Book Value + PV(excess earnings).
- Illiquidity discount 15% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Franklin XRP Trust's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 215.1M |
| Total Liabilities | — |
| Equity | 323.8M |