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Verdict

Deeply overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Deeply overvalued — 112 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Deeply overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: price against our probability-weighted DCF value (P/IV). Its own forward record began accruing on 2026-09-10 (daily snapshots); until a year of it exists, the panel below tests the nearest cousin we can measure point-in-time — cheap on book value — and says so.

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Proxy: price-to-book ≤ 1.2 (undervalued band has no point-in-time history yet) · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Probable Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +12.6 pts (1,427 entries, 311 companies, very unlikely to be luck). 50% of entries beat the S&P; 25% beat it by 30 points or more; 30% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is +10.9 pts.
+12.6 ptsvs S&P, average
50%beat the S&P
25%up 30+ pts vs S&P
30%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+14.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−15.1 pts 2019worst year to buy ?
6.1luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: +2.3 pts 49% beat6 mo: +4.6 pts 49% beat12 mo: +12.6 pts 50% beat24 mo: +21.8 pts 46% beat3 yr, per yr: +1.3 pts 40% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today1,245+7.9 pts t 4.6+10.1 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)182+44.5 pts t 4.0+40.7 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing466+13.0 pts t 4.0−2.2 pts
Energy126+7.4 pts t 1.2−7.8 pts
Other115+8.4 pts t 1.8+3.8 pts
Tech hardware & semis113+10.9 pts t 1.6+2.3 pts
Services96+11.9 pts t 2.7+12.2 pts
Retail & consumer87+17.2 pts t 2.1+10.2 pts
Finance & real estate72−1.7 pts t -0.5−2.4 pts
Utilities65+5.6 pts t 0.6−1.2 pts
Construction53+13.2 pts t 1.7−2.4 pts
Biotech & pharma44+47.1 pts t 1.6+10.0 pts
Telecom & media43+14.0 pts t 0.7−6.3 pts
Software & IT services35+39.9 pts t 1.8+1.2 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +10.7 pts (n 629, t 6.0). From 2018: +14.0 pts (n 798, t 4.1). Same sign in both halves.

Year2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+13 pts+5 pts+14 pts+18 pts−4 pts−4 pts+22 pts+12 pts−3 pts−15 pts+87 pts+8 pts+17 pts−9 pts−7 pts+15 pts
n254310610178841118178991297276108121115

Read the research behind this screen: Price-to-book still sorts, across all sizes → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Our model values are recomputed daily but were never stored historically, so this band cannot be backtested honestly yet. Daily snapshots began 2026-09-10; a true record accrues from there. Until then the nearest tested cousin is shown — cheap on book value — and labelled as a proxy. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
PG
PROCTER & GAMBLE Co
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$145.27
Model IV$102.52
P/IV1.42
Premium +42% Return to IV: -29.4%
Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
PROV
PROVIDENT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$18.63
Model IV$13.05
P/IV1.40
Premium +43% Return to IV: -30.0%
RIO
RIO TINTO PLC
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$99.96
Model IV$48.34
P/IV2.07
Premium +107% Return to IV: -51.6%
Market implies +8.5%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
ROKU
ROKU, INC
Deeply overvalued
Communication Services Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$156.62
Model IV$67.04
P/IV2.34
Premium +134% Return to IV: -57.2%
Market implies +14.2%/yr vs model +14.4% · in line
RTX
RTX Corp
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$195.34
Model IV$136.06
P/IV1.56
Premium +44% Return to IV: -30.3%
Market implies +10.8%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 33 · Moderate
Price$11.84
Model IV$3.47
P/IV3.61
Premium +241% Return to IV: -70.7%
Market implies +18.0%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
SCCO
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP/
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 64 · High
Price$189.39
Model IV$37.59
P/IV5.15
Premium +404% Return to IV: -80.2%
Market implies +29.1%/yr vs model +5.2% · above model
SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A.
Deeply overvalued
Communication Services Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$556.31
Model IV$287.19
P/IV1.94
Premium +94% Return to IV: -48.4%
Market implies +17.1%/yr vs model +10.5% · above model
STLD
STEEL DYNAMICS INC
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 68 · High
Price$239.79
Model IV$77.33
P/IV3.10
Premium +210% Return to IV: -67.8%
Market implies +17.3%/yr vs model +1.3% · above model
TJX
TJX COMPANIES INC /DE/
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$124.60
Model IV$85.04
P/IV1.48
Premium +47% Return to IV: -31.7%
Market implies +10.2%/yr vs model +6.3% · above model
TM
TOYOTA MOTOR CORP/
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Price$195.47
Model IV$55.73
P/IV3.18
Premium +251% Return to IV: -71.5%
Market implies +15.6%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
TRX
TRX GOLD Corp
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$1.20
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +32.4%/yr vs model +15.0% · above model
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$356.58
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +58.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
TTAM
Titan America SA
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$14.60
Model IV$9.42
P/IV1.70
Premium +55% Return to IV: -35.5%
Market implies +7.8%/yr vs model +6.9% · in line
TTAN
ServiceTitan, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$54.68
Model IV$43.67
P/IV1.87
Premium +25% Return to IV: -20.1%
Market implies +2.6%/yr vs model +27.1% · below model
TTE
TotalEnergies SE
Deeply overvalued
Energy Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$91.89
Model IV$66.12
P/IV1.39
Premium +39% Return to IV: -28.0%
Market implies +5.3%/yr vs model +0.8% · above model
TWOD
TWO HARBORS INVESTMENT CORP.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 62 · High
Price$26.16
Model IV$16.46
P/IV1.54
Premium +59% Return to IV: -37.1%
UCO
ProShares Trust II
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 60 · High
Price$51.56
Model IV$12.62
P/IV2.82
Premium +309% Return to IV: -75.5%
UDN
INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH FUND
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 62 · High
Price$18.30
Model IV$8.15
P/IV2.22
Premium +124% Return to IV: -55.5%
UGL
ProShares Trust II
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 70 · High
Price$48.79
Model IV$11.69
P/IV3.83
Premium +317% Return to IV: -76.0%
UGP
ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS INC
Deeply overvalued
Utilities Risk 66 · High
Price$7.45
Model IV$3.26
P/IV1.94
Premium +129% Return to IV: -56.2%
USAU
U.S. GOLD CORP.
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 62 · High
Price$15.20
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +84.3%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
USCB
USCB FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 64 · High
Price$23.16
Model IV$12.00
P/IV1.88
Premium +93% Return to IV: -48.2%
USGO
U.S. GoldMining Inc.
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 61 · High
Price$8.16
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +71.4%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
VABK
Virginia National Bankshares Corp
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 69 · High
Price$49.22
Model IV$32.33
P/IV1.47
Premium +52% Return to IV: -34.3%
VGAS
Verde Clean Fuels, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$1.41
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +44.5%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
VGZ
VISTA GOLD CORP
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 64 · High
Price$2.17
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +49.6%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
VIXY
ProShares Trust II
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$17.30
Model IV$12.62
P/IV1.62
Premium +37% Return to IV: -27.1%
VLO
VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX
Deeply overvalued
Energy Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$390.42
Model IV$167.67
P/IV2.33
Premium +133% Return to IV: -57.1%
Market implies +14.1%/yr vs model +2.5% · above model
VLYPN
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 64 · High
Price$26.10
Model IV$12.86
P/IV2.00
Premium +103% Return to IV: -50.7%
VLYPO
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 75 · High
Price$25.11
Model IV$12.86
P/IV1.94
Premium +95% Return to IV: -48.8%
VLYPP
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 72 · High
Price$25.28
Model IV$12.86
P/IV1.95
Premium +97% Return to IV: -49.1%
VMC
Vulcan Materials CO
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 61 · High
Price$249.20
Model IV$105.96
P/IV2.39
Premium +135% Return to IV: -57.5%
Market implies +18.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
VMET
Versamet Royalties Corp
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 73 · High
Price$9.65
Model IV$3.18
P/IV3.02
Premium +203% Return to IV: -67.0%
WAVE
Eco Wave Power Global AB (publ)
Deeply overvalued
Utilities Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$5.56
Model IV$3.08
P/IV2.42
Premium +81% Return to IV: -44.6%
WBD
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Communication Services Risk 36 · Moderate
Price$28.10
Model IV$12.85
P/IV2.19
Premium +119% Return to IV: -54.3%
Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model -2.5% · above model
WDS
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD
Deeply overvalued
Energy Risk 65 · High
Price$23.69
Model IV$13.11
P/IV1.71
Premium +81% Return to IV: -44.7%
Market implies +7.5%/yr vs model +16.9% · below model
WHFCL
WhiteHorse Finance, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Unknown Risk 61 · High
Price$25.09
Model IV$16.96
P/IV1.50
Premium +48% Return to IV: -32.4%
Market implies -4.6%/yr vs model -10.0% · above model
WILC
G WILLI FOOD INTERNATIONAL LTD
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$27.75
Model IV$16.65
P/IV1.78
Premium +67% Return to IV: -40.0%
Market implies +2.4%/yr vs model +10.6% · below model
WMT
Walmart Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Price$108.09
Model IV$28.82
P/IV3.75
Premium +275% Return to IV: -73.3%
Market implies +22.7%/yr vs model +6.3% · above model
WNEB
Western New England Bancorp, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 64 · High
Price$13.77
Model IV$8.17
P/IV1.66
Premium +69% Return to IV: -40.7%
WPM
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 38 · Moderate
Price$154.12
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +45.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
WSBF
Waterstone Financial, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$21.26
Model IV$14.42
P/IV1.45
Premium +47% Return to IV: -32.2%
WSBK
Winchester Bancorp, Inc./MD/
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 68 · High
Price$12.96
Model IV$6.60
P/IV1.97
Premium +96% Return to IV: -49.1%
WTBA
WEST BANCORPORATION INC
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 66 · High
Price$29.51
Model IV$18.73
P/IV1.53
Premium +58% Return to IV: -36.5%
WWR
WESTWATER RESOURCES, INC.
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 62 · High
Price$0.56
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +30.5%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
XOM
EXXON MOBIL CORP
Deeply overvalued
Energy Risk 37 · Moderate
Price$165.08
Model IV$104.62
P/IV1.59
Premium +58% Return to IV: -36.6%
Market implies +9.6%/yr vs model +3.9% · above model
XPEV
XPENG INC.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High
Price$10.71
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +72.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
XPL
SOLITARIO RESOURCES CORP.
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$0.62
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +29.7%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
YCL
ProShares Trust II
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$19.19
Model IV$12.62
P/IV1.45
Premium +52% Return to IV: -34.3%
YCS
ProShares Trust II
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 62 · High
Price$51.17
Model IV$12.62
P/IV4.25
Premium +305% Return to IV: -75.3%
ZSL
ProShares Trust II
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$24.52
Model IV$12.62
P/IV2.33
Premium +94% Return to IV: -48.5%