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Verdict

Deeply overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Deeply overvalued — 112 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Deeply overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: price against our probability-weighted DCF value (P/IV). Its own forward record began accruing on 2026-09-10 (daily snapshots); until a year of it exists, the panel below tests the nearest cousin we can measure point-in-time — cheap on book value — and says so.

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Proxy: price-to-book ≤ 1.2 (undervalued band has no point-in-time history yet) · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Probable Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +12.6 pts (1,427 entries, 311 companies, very unlikely to be luck). 50% of entries beat the S&P; 25% beat it by 30 points or more; 30% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is +10.9 pts.
+12.6 ptsvs S&P, average
50%beat the S&P
25%up 30+ pts vs S&P
30%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+14.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−15.1 pts 2019worst year to buy ?
6.1luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: +2.3 pts 49% beat6 mo: +4.6 pts 49% beat12 mo: +12.6 pts 50% beat24 mo: +21.8 pts 46% beat3 yr, per yr: +1.3 pts 40% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today1,245+7.9 pts t 4.6+10.1 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)182+44.5 pts t 4.0+40.7 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing466+13.0 pts t 4.0−2.2 pts
Energy126+7.4 pts t 1.2−7.8 pts
Other115+8.4 pts t 1.8+3.8 pts
Tech hardware & semis113+10.9 pts t 1.6+2.3 pts
Services96+11.9 pts t 2.7+12.2 pts
Retail & consumer87+17.2 pts t 2.1+10.2 pts
Finance & real estate72−1.7 pts t -0.5−2.4 pts
Utilities65+5.6 pts t 0.6−1.2 pts
Construction53+13.2 pts t 1.7−2.4 pts
Biotech & pharma44+47.1 pts t 1.6+10.0 pts
Telecom & media43+14.0 pts t 0.7−6.3 pts
Software & IT services35+39.9 pts t 1.8+1.2 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +10.7 pts (n 629, t 6.0). From 2018: +14.0 pts (n 798, t 4.1). Same sign in both halves.

Year2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+13 pts+5 pts+14 pts+18 pts−4 pts−4 pts+22 pts+12 pts−3 pts−15 pts+87 pts+8 pts+17 pts−9 pts−7 pts+15 pts
n254310610178841118178991297276108121115

Read the research behind this screen: Price-to-book still sorts, across all sizes → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Our model values are recomputed daily but were never stored historically, so this band cannot be backtested honestly yet. Daily snapshots began 2026-09-10; a true record accrues from there. Until then the nearest tested cousin is shown — cheap on book value — and labelled as a proxy. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
A
AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 62 · High
Price$150.27
Model IV$63.45
P/IV2.36
Premium +137% Return to IV: -57.8%
Market implies +15.5%/yr vs model +4.7% · above model
AA
Alcoa Corp
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$48.26
Model IV$11.61
P/IV3.82
Premium +316% Return to IV: -75.9%
Market implies +23.4%/yr vs model +2.5% · above model
ABAT
AMERICAN BATTERY TECHNOLOGY Co
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 44 · Elevated
Price$2.36
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +56.6%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
AEM
AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 65 · High
Price$197.55
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +33.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
AISPW
Airship AI Holdings, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$0.44
Model IV$0.23
P/IV1.98
Premium +89% Return to IV: -47.2%
Market implies +12.5%/yr vs model +15.0% · in line
AMODW
ALPHA MODUS HOLDINGS, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 75 · High
Price$0.03
Model IV$0.01
P/IV2.57
Premium +240% Return to IV: -70.6%
AMX
AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/
Deeply overvalued
Communication Services Risk 32 · Moderate
Price$23.12
Model IV$17.26
P/IV1.34
Premium +34% Return to IV: -25.3%
Market implies +0.3%/yr vs model -2.1% · in line
ANNAW
AleAnna, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Energy Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$0.35
Model IV$0.10
P/IV2.87
Premium +256% Return to IV: -71.9%
Market implies +18.0%/yr vs model +4.0% · above model
APD
Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 63 · High
Price$290.56
Model IV$82.59
P/IV3.53
Premium +252% Return to IV: -71.6%
Market implies +20.8%/yr vs model +4.2% · above model
ASBPW
Aspire Biopharma Holdings, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 60 · High
Price$0.01
Model IV$0.01
P/IV1.75
Premium +75% Return to IV: -42.7%
Market implies +0.0%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
ASML
ASML HOLDING NV
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$1,575.15
Model IV$433.47
P/IV3.92
Premium +263% Return to IV: -72.5%
Market implies +28.6%/yr vs model +11.5% · above model
AU
AngloGold Ashanti PLC
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$100.48
Model IV$19.45
P/IV5.37
Premium +417% Return to IV: -80.6%
Market implies +30.5%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
AWR
AMERICAN STATES WATER CO
Deeply overvalued
Utilities Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$86.45
Model IV$58.50
P/IV1.48
Premium +48% Return to IV: -32.3%
B
BARRICK MINING CORP
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 61 · High
Price$42.43
Model IV$10.05
P/IV4.35
Premium +322% Return to IV: -76.3%
Market implies +27.0%/yr vs model +7.8% · above model
BAC
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$62.69
Model IV$44.34
P/IV1.40
Premium +41% Return to IV: -29.3%
BFRGW
BullFrog AI Holdings, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Healthcare Risk 36 · Moderate
Price$0.09
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +31.3%/yr vs model +15.0% · above model
BHP
BHP Group Ltd
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$87.15
Model IV$44.70
P/IV1.95
Premium +95% Return to IV: -48.7%
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
BMRA
BIOMERICA INC
Valuation N/A
Healthcare Risk 28 · Moderate
Price$2.36
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +27.1%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
BNAIW
Brand Engagement Network Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$0.08
Model IV$0.05
P/IV1.71
Premium +43% Return to IV: -30.0%
Market implies +6.3%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
CAT
CATERPILLAR INC
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 61 · High
Price$818.57
Model IV$238.33
P/IV3.43
Premium +243% Return to IV: -70.9%
Market implies +23.6%/yr vs model +6.9% · above model
CHT
CHUNGHWA TELECOM CO LTD
Deeply overvalued
Communication Services Risk 38 · Moderate
Price$45.37
Model IV$21.63
P/IV2.10
Premium +110% Return to IV: -52.3%
Market implies +7.4%/yr vs model 0.0% · above model
COST
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$901.35
Model IV$364.14
P/IV2.48
Premium +148% Return to IV: -59.6%
Market implies +18.9%/yr vs model +8.6% · above model
CRMLW
Critical Metals Corp.
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 44 · Elevated
Price$2.06
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +54.4%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
CRS
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 28 · Moderate
Price$443.19
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +39.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
CSCO
CISCO SYSTEMS, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$112.13
Model IV$39.27
P/IV2.79
Premium +186% Return to IV: -65.0%
Market implies +20.7%/yr vs model +7.3% · above model
CTVA
Corteva, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$83.90
Model IV$35.70
P/IV2.35
Premium +135% Return to IV: -57.4%
Market implies +14.3%/yr vs model +3.4% · above model
CVX
CHEVRON CORP
Deeply overvalued
Energy Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$217.77
Model IV$132.76
P/IV1.61
Premium +64% Return to IV: -39.0%
Market implies +10.2%/yr vs model +3.9% · above model
CXM
Sprinklr, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$5.65
Model IV$2.55
P/IV2.45
Premium +122% Return to IV: -54.9%
Market implies +21.0%/yr vs model +14.0% · above model
DD
DuPont de Nemours, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 60 · High
Price$126.99
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +38.2%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
ECXJ
CXJ GROUP CO., Ltd
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical
Price$1.30
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +39.8%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
ETD
ETHAN ALLEN INTERIORS INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$21.93
Model IV$11.49
P/IV1.90
Premium +91% Return to IV: -47.6%
Market implies +3.7%/yr vs model -3.4% · above model
FBYDW
Falcon's Beyond Global, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Communication Services Risk 43 · Elevated
Price$0.95
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +32.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
FCX
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$71.07
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +36.8%/yr vs model +3.7% · above model
FMSTW
Foremost Clean Energy Ltd.
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$0.30
Model IV$0.10
P/IV3.08
Premium +208% Return to IV: -67.5%
Market implies +15.6%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
FOXA
Fox Corp
Deeply overvalued
Communication Services Risk 29 · Moderate
Price$67.57
Model IV$47.21
P/IV1.43
Premium +43% Return to IV: -30.1%
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model +4.3% · above model
FPS
Forgent Power Solutions, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials
Price$31.36
Model IV$11.78
P/IV2.66
Premium +166% Return to IV: -62.4%
Market implies +22.1%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
GCBC
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$35.71
Model IV$24.40
P/IV1.44
Premium +46% Return to IV: -31.7%
GFI
GOLD FIELDS LTD
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 26 · Moderate
Price$45.10
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +34.0%/yr vs model +6.8% · above model
GRUSF
Grown Rogue International Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 66 · High
Price$0.44
Model IV$0.09
P/IV4.92
Premium +371% Return to IV: -78.7%
Market implies +25.0%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
HD
HOME DEPOT, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 63 · High
Price$308.74
Model IV$206.27
P/IV1.50
Premium +50% Return to IV: -33.2%
Market implies +8.8%/yr vs model +3.9% · above model
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$229.61
Model IV$74.46
P/IV3.08
Premium +208% Return to IV: -67.6%
Market implies +24.3%/yr vs model +11.3% · above model
ILLRW
Triller Group Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 29 · Moderate
Price$0.06
Model IV$0.02
P/IV2.53
Premium +153% Return to IV: -60.5%
Market implies +15.6%/yr vs model +17.2% · in line
ISPR
Ispire Technology Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 38 · Moderate
Price$1.44
Model IV$0.71
P/IV2.02
Premium +102% Return to IV: -50.4%
Market implies +6.8%/yr vs model +2.2% · above model
JPM
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 71 · High
Price$356.23
Model IV$234.24
P/IV1.51
Premium +52% Return to IV: -34.2%
KGC
KINROSS GOLD CORP
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 27 · Moderate
Price$29.13
Model IV$7.21
P/IV4.04
Premium +304% Return to IV: -75.2%
Market implies +26.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
KMB
KIMBERLY CLARK CORP
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 61 · High
Price$98.15
Model IV$47.30
P/IV2.07
Premium +108% Return to IV: -51.8%
Market implies +8.6%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
KO
COCA COLA CO
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$88.71
Model IV$30.95
P/IV2.85
Premium +187% Return to IV: -65.1%
Market implies +18.2%/yr vs model +5.4% · above model
LCFYW
Locafy Ltd
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$4.80
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +28.9%/yr vs model +6.1% · above model
LIN
LINDE PLC
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 62 · High
Price$466.22
Model IV$174.78
P/IV2.67
Premium +167% Return to IV: -62.5%
Market implies +16.0%/yr vs model +3.3% · above model
LLY
ELI LILLY & Co
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$1,115.70
Model IV$748.36
P/IV1.60
Premium +49% Return to IV: -32.9%
Market implies +19.9%/yr vs model +19.2% · in line
MCD
MCDONALDS CORP
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 63 · High
Price$252.53
Model IV$172.09
P/IV1.47
Premium +47% Return to IV: -31.9%
Market implies +9.4%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
MT
ArcelorMittal
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 38 · Moderate
Price$74.51
Model IV$31.07
P/IV2.40
Premium +140% Return to IV: -58.3%
Market implies +12.1%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
NEM
NEWMONT Corp /DE/
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$123.07
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +33.4%/yr vs model +0.9% · above model
NFLX
NETFLIX INC
Deeply overvalued
Communication Services Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$77.90
Model IV$50.70
P/IV1.53
Premium +54% Return to IV: -34.9%
Market implies +13.7%/yr vs model +10.1% · above model
NUE
NUCOR CORP
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 60 · High
Price$259.43
Model IV$150.47
P/IV1.72
Premium +72% Return to IV: -42.0%
Market implies +6.0%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
NVDA
NVIDIA CORP
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$212.17
Model IV$83.33
P/IV2.62
Premium +155% Return to IV: -60.7%
Market implies +29.3%/yr vs model +20.0% · above model
OCC
OPTICAL CABLE CORP
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$13.20
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +85.1%/yr vs model +5.3% · above model
OPTT
Ocean Power Technologies, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Utilities Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$2.73
Model IV$0.64
P/IV4.25
Premium +325% Return to IV: -76.5%
PAGP
PLAINS GP HOLDINGS LP
Deeply overvalued
Energy Risk 35 · Moderate
Price$27.99
Model IV$16.56
P/IV1.68
Premium +69% Return to IV: -40.8%
Market implies +9.3%/yr vs model +2.1% · above model
PBSV
Pharma-Bio Serv, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials
Price$0.41
Model IV$0.14
P/IV4.00
Premium +204% Return to IV: -67.1%
Market implies +16.4%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model