Deeply overvalued Archives

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.

"Deeply overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: price against our probability-weighted DCF value (P/IV). Its own forward record began accruing on 2026-09-10 (daily snapshots); until a year of it exists, the panel below tests the nearest cousin we can measure point-in-time — cheap on book value — and says so.

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).

S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.

Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR 10–30 points over Treasuries, yield ≤ 25% · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months

Could be luck Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +2.9 pts (823 entries, 256 companies, could be luck). 47% of entries beat the S&P; 18% beat it by 30 points or more; 27% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is +1.2 pts.

+2.9 ptsvs S&P, average

47%beat the S&P

18%up 30+ pts vs S&P

27%down 20+ pts vs S&P

+6.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo

−14.6 pts 2024worst year to buy ?

1.8luck check ?

Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −0.5 pts 47% beat6 mo: +0.1 pts 45% beat12 mo: +2.9 pts 47% beat24 mo: +3.3 pts 42% beat3 yr, per yr: −0.9 pts 39% beat

Market state at entry	Company-years	vs S&P 12 mo	vs small caps
Calm ◀ today	686	+1.9 pts t 1.2	+5.3 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)	137	+7.9 pts t 1.4	+9.6 pts

Sector (SEC group)	n	vs S&P 12 mo	3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing	256	+0.9 pts t 0.4	−5.1 pts
Retail & consumer	106	+10.5 pts t 1.9	+1.9 pts
Services	78	−3.2 pts t -0.5	−2.1 pts
Energy	69	+3.1 pts t 0.5	−4.9 pts
Other	61	−4.4 pts t -0.8	−3.3 pts
Tech hardware & semis	58	−2.8 pts t -0.6	−1.4 pts
Finance & real estate	46	+5.9 pts t 1.5	+6.8 pts
Biotech & pharma	28	−5.0 pts t -0.7	−4.3 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +5.1 pts (n 291, t 2.3). From 2018: +1.7 pts (n 532, t 0.8). Same sign in both halves.

Year	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
vs S&P	−11 pts	+5 pts	+6 pts	−5 pts	−4 pts	+17 pts	+8 pts	−10 pts	−14 pts	+46 pts	+8 pts	+8 pts	−14 pts	−15 pts	+3 pts
n	1	29	43	51	55	70	42	53	62	72	56	76	87	69	57

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.