Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM) Stock Analysis
Black Stone Minerals, L.P.
▾ What's in the 53/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read BSM (cyclical commodity producer)
A miner or energy producer earns whatever the commodity price is, so a single DCF swings with the cycle. Judge it against peers and where you think the commodity cycle is heading.
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EV/Sales peer comparison ↓
How the price compares to similar producers is more meaningful than a through-cycle DCF.
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Interactive calculator (test cycle assumptions) ↓
Flex the growth/discount inputs to see how sensitive the value is to where we are in the cycle.
Standard DCF doesn't fit BSM well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The EV/Sales Peer Comparison below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value oil & gas extraction. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.
Miners, metals and energy producers earn whatever the commodity price is at the time. A discounted-cash-flow model leans on recent cash flow, so it swings with the cycle: the result is dominated by where we are in the commodity cycle rather than by durable business economics.
For this business type, lean on the EV/Sales peer comparison and Reverse-DCF below (how today's price compares to similar producers and what growth it implies), and weigh the commodity-price outlook. Treat the DCF number as a rough mid-cycle reference, not a buy/sell trigger.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $299.9M in FY2025.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $310.2M (was $389.0M the prior year).
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✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $310.2M vs net income $299.9M.
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✓ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 22.5% vs 22.3% a year ago.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $1,335.6M).
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✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 3.88x vs 2.58x a year ago.
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· Share count (dilution) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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· Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 0.32x vs 0.36x a year ago.Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → valuation is not meaningful for Black Stone Minerals, L.P. because its historical free cash flowFree Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation → growth is negative (-1.9%), reflecting its cyclical nature and commodity price sensitivity. Investors are likely focused on the company's consistent positive net income and operating cash flow, which indicate a stable, albeit mature, business. The primary quantifiable risk is the declining revenue, which has fallen -4.4% per year over the last four years.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Trends in oil and gas commodity prices
- Changes in production volumes from its acreage
- Acquisition activity for new mineral interests
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Net income grew +11% to $299.9M.
- Revenue fell -4% to $422.3M.
- Free cash flow fell to $300.5M.
Management & Leadership
Thomas L. Carter, Jr. serves as the Chief Executive Officer and President of Black Stone Minerals, L.P., a role he has held for many years, guiding the company's strategy in mineral and royalty interests. Jeffrey P. Wood is the Chief Financial Officer, overseeing the company's financial operations and capital structure.
What They Make
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. is one of the largest owners of oil and natural gas mineral interests in the United States, generating revenue from royalties and lease bonuses. Its customers are primarily exploration and production companies that lease its mineral rights.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is pricing Black Stone Minerals based on its consistent positive net income and operating cash flow, indicating a stable, cash-generating business despite declining revenue. Given its cyclical sector and negative historical FCFFree Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation → growth (-1.9%), investors are likely valuing it as a mature, income-producing asset rather than a growth stock, focusing on its ability to generate cash in varying commodity cycles.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
Normalized FCF
Cyclical/commodity sector (Oil & Gas Extraction): normalized FCF uses 5-year median to smooth peak/trough distortions.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | -4.4% |
| Historical Fcf Growth | 5.3% |
| Sector Default | 4.0% |
| Best Estimate | -1.9% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project production volumes, realized commodity prices and unit cash costs independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been declining at -4.4% per year over the last four years, though net income and operating cash flow have been positive for the last five years.
Geography & Markets
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. primarily operates across major oil and gas producing regions within the United States, holding mineral and royalty interests in various basins. Exact geographic segment splits are not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)43.2NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (9 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (8)
- Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).
- Median OCF: $389.04M, est. maintenance capex: $77.81M, normalized FCF: $311.23M.
- Historical FCF growth is negative (-1.9%) - likely reflects commodity cycle peak. Flooring at 0%.
- Shares from unknown — per-share values may be less accurate.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable.
- Shares defaulted to 1; IV is NOT meaningful — treat as data-unavailable.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Black Stone Minerals, L.P.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 422.3M | 299.9M | — |
| 2024 | 439.4M | 271.3M | — |
| 2023 | 501.1M | 422.5M | — |
| 2022 | 784.3M | 476.5M | — |
| 2021 | 505.7M | 182.0M | — |
Cash Flow (5yr)
Capital expenditure isn't tagged in this filer's machine-readable data (the CapEx column shows "—"). The free-cash-flow column is therefore operating cash flow less stock-based compensation only — an upper bound on true owner earnings, not the real figure. Companies that report capex under a custom label (some large IFRS filers do) look better here than they are.
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 310.2M | — | 9.6M | 300.5M |
| 2024 | 389.0M | — | 8.6M | 380.5M |
| 2023 | 521.3M | — | 10.8M | 510.4M |
| 2022 | 425.0M | — | 17.4M | 407.6M |
| 2021 | 256.9M | — | 12.2M | 244.7M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 310.2M − — − 9.6M (SBC & adj.) = 300.5M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a mid-cycle estimate (median operating cash flow less estimated maintenance capex and stock compensation — by design NOT the table's FCF, which deducts every year's full capex), not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 1.3B |
| Total Liabilities | 207.1M |
| Equity | — |
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