Moelis & Co (MC) Stock Analysis
Moelis & Co
▾ What's in the 42/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read MC
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
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Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
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Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
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Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
The share count we read for MC looks wrong — common for multi-class / founder-controlled filers that report shares per share-class. That makes per-share figures (including intrinsic value) misleading, so we suppressed them. The company's total financials below are sound.
What to use instead: Lean on the totals — revenue, net income, cash flow — and the balance sheet. Multi-class share counts are being corrected; once fixed, the per-share valuation returns automatically.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — MC's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $259.6M in FY2025.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $576.3M (was $427.5M the prior year).
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✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $576.3M vs net income $259.6M.
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✓ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 14.9% vs 11.0% a year ago.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $1,740.7M).
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· Short-term liquidity (current ratio) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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· Share count (dilution) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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· Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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· Sales per asset (asset turnover) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → valuation is not meaningful for Moelis & Co. due to the nature of its business as an advisory firm, where cash flows can be highly variable and dependent on market conditions. While operating cash flow has been positive for 5/5 years and net income is positive, the market likely focuses on its advisory deal pipeline and market share in investment banking. The #1 quantifiable risk is that stock-based compensation equals 43% of pre-SBCSBC (Stock-Based Compensation) — Paying employees with company shares instead of cash.
Why it matters: It's a real cost — it dilutes your ownership — so we subtract it from free cash flow even though accounting rules add it back, which would otherwise flatter cash-heavy tech companies.
Reference: Can be 10–30% of revenue at high-growth software firms.
Full explanation → free cash flowFree Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation →, indicating significant dilution.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Quarterly M&A advisory revenue trends
- Announcements of new significant mandates
- Changes in stock-based compensation as a percentage of free cash flow
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Free cash flow rose to $309.7M.
- Net income grew +71% to $259.6M.
Nothing was clearly worsening year-over-year.
Management & Leadership
Ken Moelis is the Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer of Moelis & Company, having founded the firm in 2007. He has led the company since its inception, building it into a prominent independent investment bank.
What They Make
Moelis & Company is a global independent investment bank that provides financial advisory services to corporations, governments, and financial sponsors. They primarily advise on mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations, and other strategic matters.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market prices Moelis & Co. based on expectations for future advisory mandates and its ability to capture market share in a competitive environment. Despite positive operating cash flow for 5/5 years, the variability inherent in deal-driven revenue means investors are likely betting on sustained deal activity and the firm's reputation to secure future engagements, rather than a predictable cash flow stream.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company funds itself through its positive operating cash flow and manages shareholder returns, though specific dividend or buyback rates are not available from current data; stock-based compensation is a significant factor.
Free Cash Flow DCF
Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation. FCF negative in 2/5 years.
Show advanced inputs
| Historical Fcf Growth | -35.9% |
| Sector Default | 8.0% |
| Best Estimate | 8.0% |
| Method | sector_default |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project net interest income and fee-income lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Net income has been positive for 4/5 years, and operating cash flow has been positive for 5/5 years.
Geography & Markets
Moelis & Company operates globally, with a significant presence in major financial centers across North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Exact geographic segment percentages are not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)61.1NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (6 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (6)
- Stock-based compensation equals 43% of pre-SBC free cash flow; FCF used here is net of SBC (a real shareholder-dilution cost), so it is lower than the headline GAAP cash-flow figure.
- Shares from unknown — per-share values may be less accurate.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable.
- Shares defaulted to 1; IV is NOT meaningful — treat as data-unavailable.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Moelis & Co's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | — | 259.6M | — |
| 2024 | — | 151.5M | — |
| 2023 | — | -27.5M | — |
| 2022 | — | 168.7M | — |
| 2021 | — | 423.0M | — |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 576.3M | 36.3M | 230.3M | 309.7M |
| 2024 | 427.5M | 12.1M | 161.4M | 253.9M |
| 2023 | 158.5M | 16.7M | 158.2M | -16.4M |
| 2022 | 33.0M | 6.0M | 128.9M | -101.9M |
| 2021 | 937.0M | 16.4M | 167.9M | 752.6M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 576.3M − 36.3M − 230.3M (SBC & adj.) = 309.7M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 1.7B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.1B |
| Equity | 568.4M |
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