MP Materials Corp. / DE (MP) Stock Analysis

Price updated 4 days ago · SEC data refreshed 3 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

MP Materials Corp. / DE

MP Basic Materials Metal Mining📄 SEC filings ↗
Valuation N/A
Long-term trend (200d) 20% below 200-day Risk 48/100 Elevated
▾ What's in the 48/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 40/100 → +17.1
leverage 40/100 · Altman Z not scored — input unavailable (see Financial Health)
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 57/100 → +17.9
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 50/100 → +12.9
Total48/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $50.51 · 4 days ago 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 3 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read MP (cyclical commodity producer)

A miner or energy producer earns whatever the commodity price is, so a single DCF swings with the cycle. Judge it against peers and where you think the commodity cycle is heading.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 EV/Sales peer comparison ↓
    How the price compares to similar producers is more meaningful than a through-cycle DCF.
  2. 2 Interactive calculator (test cycle assumptions) ↓
    Flex the growth/discount inputs to see how sensitive the value is to where we are in the cycle.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
A note on process: fear-driven decisions — including fear of missing out — tend to be the expensive ones. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not evidence. Whichever reader you are, the data below is there to be checked before anything is decided.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Using the right valuation lens for this business type

Standard DCF doesn't fit MP well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Rule of 40 (Pre-Profit Growth) Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value metal mining. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.

ⓘ Why a standard DCF doesn't settle this one — MP is a cyclical commodity producer

Miners, metals and energy producers earn whatever the commodity price is at the time. A discounted-cash-flow model leans on recent cash flow, so it swings with the cycle: the result is dominated by where we are in the commodity cycle rather than by durable business economics.

For this business type, lean on the EV/Sales peer comparison and Reverse-DCF below (how today's price compares to similar producers and what growth it implies), and weigh the commodity-price outlook. Treat the DCF number as a rough mid-cycle reference, not a buy/sell trigger.

ⓘ Why does MP trade at $50.51?

MP Materials Corp. / DE has 170.1 million shares outstanding. At $50.51 per share, the market values all outstanding MP equity at $8.6 billion. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash — and it matters here because MP carries substantial debt. The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values MP in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
Checking filings for failure warnings…
PEER BASKET — TIGHT COMPARABLES

How does MP stack up against its closest peers?

We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to MP (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If MP is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, FCF yield (in the table) is usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.

Peer-implied value check
Not enough clean peer EV/Sales multiples to derive a reliable median (some were dropped as implausible/outliers). The EV/EBIT and FCF-yield rows above are the better read here; also lean on the DCF.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GPEV/EBIT FCF Yield
BVN BUENAVENTURA MINING CO INC Metal Mining $9.4B — 26.1x— —
CLF CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC. Metal Mining $7.8B 0.8x —— 22.8%
AUGO Aura Minerals Inc. Metal Mining $6.5B — —— —
HBM Hudbay Minerals Inc. Metal Mining $11.5B — 15.5x— —
USAR USA Rare Earth, Inc. Metal Mining $6.1B 3,716.1x 31,310.3x— 0.0%
ALM Almonty Industries Inc. Metal Mining $5.2B — —— —
TMC TMC the metals Co Inc. Metal Mining $2.6B — —— 0.2%
IE Ivanhoe Electric Inc. Metal Mining $2.1B 656.8x 1,006.0x— 0.1%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
n/a
Not reliably computable

We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.

Piotroski-style checks (partial — not a standard F-score)
4 passed · 4 failed · 1 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 4 of 8 measurable checks passed. 1 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 8, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✗ Positive net income
    Net income -$85.9M in FY2025.
    Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
  • ✗ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow -$155.8M (was $13.3M the prior year).
    Why this matters: Profit can be an accounting figure; cash from running the business is harder to fake. Negative operating cash flow means the core business consumes cash and must be funded externally.
  • ✗ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow -$155.8M vs net income -$85.9M.
    Why this matters: When cash generated exceeds reported earnings, profits are high-quality (not propped up by accruals or one-time items).
  • ✓ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets -2.2% vs -2.8% a year ago.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 25.8% of assets vs 38.9% a year ago ($998.7M of $3,864.2M assets).
  • ✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 7.24x vs 6.29x a year ago.
  • ✓ Share count (dilution)
    Share count held roughly flat (169.9M → 170.1M year-over-year).
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • ✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.06x vs 0.09x a year ago.
    Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

Cash Runway
7.5 yrs
COMFORTABLE — 2+ years at the current burn

Plain English: the company holds about $1,166M in cash and is burning roughly $156M/year in operations. At that pace, the cash lasts 7.5 yrs before it must raise capital (diluting shareholders), take on debt, or cut spending.

Assumes constant burn and ignores financing/asset sales. For pre-profit biotech and growth companies, this matters more than a DCF — a great drug pipeline is worthless if they run out of money before approval.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for MP. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for MP because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
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—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a nominal return: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is about 6% in real terms. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF carries inflation in both the growth and the discount rate), so this switch does not change the value — it restates the return in real terms.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think MP can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$50.51
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. The other valuation lenses on this page (reverse-DCF, peers, sector lens — whichever apply to this filer) carry the read instead.

    A standard discounted cash flow?DCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
    Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
    Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
    Full explanation →     valuation is not meaningful for MP Materials due to its negative operating cash flow and declining revenue, which are typical of companies in a growth or cyclical phase. Investors are likely focused on the company's strategic position in rare earth elements and its potential for future revenue growth as global demand for these materials increases. The #1 quantifiable risk is the persistent decline in revenue, which has fallen -9.3% per year over the last four years.

    ⚠️ Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).

    As of 3 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    MP MP Materials Corp. / DE stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    −38.3%
    loss
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    For every $1 of revenue, MP currently loses 38.3¢ — costs exceed sales. A money-losing business can still be a good investment if losses are shrinking toward profitability; check the trend, not just the snapshot.
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: each share (at $51) represents $1.32 of revenue per share per year, $0.50 lost per share per year, and $2.11 of cash burned per share (negative free cash flow) from the latest fiscal year. Each share carries $5.87 of total debt (interest-bearing borrowings, current + long-term).
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    For the stock to work, revenue must re-accelerate significantly from its current -9.3%/yr decline, driven by increased demand and higher rare earth prices, leading to sustained positive operating cash flow.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The biggest fundamental risk is the continued decline in revenue and negative operating cash flow, which implies ongoing cash burn and potential need for further dilutive financing if not reversed.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Quarterly revenue growth rates
    • Progress on Stage II (magnetics) facility
    • Trends in rare earth commodity prices
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Revenue grew +10% to $224.4M.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Free cash flow is negative at -$358.3M — the cash burn widened vs last year.
    • Still unprofitable at -$85.9M — loss widening.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    James Litinsky serves as the Founder, Chairman, and CEO of MP Materials, having led the company since its inception. He has been instrumental in establishing the company's position in the rare earth market. Ryan Corbett is the Chief Financial Officer.

    James Litinsky
    Founder, Chairman, and CEO
    Ryan Corbett
    Chief Financial Officer
    WHAT

    What They Make

    MP Materials operates Mountain Pass, the only integrated rare earth mining and processing site in North America. They produce rare earth oxides and other advanced materials primarily for magnet manufacturers and other industrial customers.

    End Markets

    Electric VehiclesWind TurbinesDefense Systems

    Revenue Drivers

    Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) sales
    Lanthanum sales
    Cerium sales
    Market Cap: 8.6BBeta: 1.51
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Secure North American rare earth supply
    High-purity rare earth products
    Vertically integrated production
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer This company's reported free cash flow is negative, so a discounted-cash-flow valuation has no positive cash stream to discount. That is a fact about the business, not missing data — the reported figures below are complete.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market is pricing MP Materials based on its strategic importance as a domestic rare earth producer and the anticipated long-term demand for these materials in green energy and defense sectors, rather than current profitability. Despite negative operating cash flow and declining revenue, investors are betting on future growth and the company's unique asset, given its 1/5 franchise/durability score.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) sales
    Lanthanum sales
    Cerium sales

    Normalized FCF

    Cyclical/commodity sector (Metal Mining) with negative current FCF: normalized FCF uses multi-year median to smooth through the cycle.

    Show advanced inputs
    Revenue Growth-9.3%
    Sector Default5.0%
    Best Estimate-5.0%
    Methodblend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector)
    Growth Basistotal

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project production volumes, realized commodity prices and unit cash costs independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Cyclical / commodity-linked producer

    Moat Signals

    Only integrated rare earth facility in North America
    Strategic national asset status
    Significant mineral reserves at Mountain Pass

    Revenue has been declining at -9.3% per year over the last four years, and net income was negative in the latest period.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    MP Materials operates its primary mining and processing facility at Mountain Pass, California, making it a predominantly North American operation. Exact geographic revenue segmentation is not available in current filings.

    Geographic Risks

    Concentration risk in a single mining operation (Mountain Pass)
    Commodity price volatility for rare earth elements
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model neutral, tape neutral - aligned.
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    52.9NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
    50-Day Average$59.73Price below (-15.4%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$62.91Price belowThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossDeath50-day below 200-dayA "death cross" — the medium trend is below the long trend (often read as bearish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (6 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (6)
    • Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).
    • Median OCF: $62.70M, est. maintenance capex: $37.62M, normalized FCF: $25.08M.
    • Historical FCF growth is negative (-5.0%) - likely reflects commodity cycle peak. Flooring at 0%.
    • Price is far above the model output - market may be pricing optionality, narrative catalysts, or margin expansion beyond what trailing cash flows support.
    • Extreme valuation (P/IV withheld — see the note above); output dominated by data/units issue (often a multi-class share-count mismatch). Suppressed.
    • DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From MP Materials Corp. / DE's SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    2025224.4M-85.9M$-0.50
    2024203.9M-65.4M$-0.57
    2023253.4M24.3M$0.14
    2022527.5M289.0M$1.52
    2021332.0M135.0M$0.73

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 -155.8M 172.4M 30.2M -358.3M
    2024 13.3M 186.4M 23.2M -196.3M
    2023 62.7M 261.9M 25.2M -224.4M
    2022 343.5M 326.6M 31.8M -14.9M
    2021 102.0M 123.9M 22.9M -44.8M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: -155.8M − 172.4M − 30.2M (SBC & adj.) = -358.3M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a mid-cycle estimate (median operating cash flow less estimated maintenance capex and stock compensation — by design NOT the table's FCF, which deducts every year's full capex), not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets3.9B
    Total Liabilities1.5B
    Equity2.0B
    Total Debt998.7M
    YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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