Axe Compute Inc. (AGPU) Stock Analysis

Price updated today · SEC data refreshed 2 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

Axe Compute Inc.

AGPU Financial Services Financial Services📄 SEC filings ↗
Speculative
Long-term trend (200d) 49% above 200-day Risk 30/100 Moderate
▾ What's in the 30/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 20/100 → +8.6
leverage 20/100 · Altman Z not scored — input unavailable (see Financial Health)
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 45/100 → +14.1
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 30/100 → +7.7
Total30/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately, which relies on a proxied (estimated) input. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $10.62 · today 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 2 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read AGPU (speculative micro-cap)

No model can pin a precise fair value on a company this small — but that does not mean there is nothing to learn. The useful questions are what the price is betting on, and whether the company can survive long enough to deliver it.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Reverse-DCF — what growth the price assumes ↓
    The single most useful number here: it backs out the growth the market is paying for. If that figure is "historically unprecedented," the price is running on hype, not fundamentals.
  2. 2 Cash runway ↓
    A pre-profit micro-cap lives or dies on whether it can fund itself to profitability before running out of money and diluting you.
  3. 3 The raw financial statements + the 10-K ↓
    At this scale, the actual numbers, insider ownership, and share-count trend tell you more than any ratio.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
One rule first: never trade out of fear — and that includes the fear of missing out. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not data. If you can't point to the evidence behind a trade, you're more likely to lose. So whichever of these you are, check the data below before you act.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Using the right valuation lens for this business type

Standard DCF doesn't fit AGPU well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Rule of 40 (Pre-Profit Growth) Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value financial services. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.

ⓘ Why does AGPU trade at $10.62?

Axe Compute Inc. has 17.4 million shares outstanding. At $10.62 per share, the market values all outstanding AGPU equity at $185 million. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash (AGPU carries little or no debt, so the two are close here). The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values AGPU in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
⚠️ BUSINESS-MODEL ADVISORY — SPECULATIVE NANO / MICRO-CAP

How to read a company this small

AGPU is too small and/or too volatile for the valuation lenses we use on larger, more stable companies. The numbers shown below should be taken as rough orientation only.

✅ What actually drives value for this kind of company
  • Latest annual revenue $125K — too small for meaningful growth percentages
❌ Metrics that DON'T apply (ignore these even if you see them below)

Growth percentages on tiny revenue bases (1000% going from $200K to $2M is not predictive). P/E and ROE swing wildly with small earnings changes. Peer comparisons fail because there often aren't comparable companies at this scale.

📚 Where to actually look

Start with the Reverse-DCF above — it backs out the growth the price is betting on; if that figure is "historically unprecedented," the price is running on hype, not fundamentals. Then the cash runway (can it fund itself to profitability before diluting you?). Then the raw Financials table and the 10-K on SEC EDGAR — at this scale, insider ownership and the share-count trend often matter more than any ratio.

Classified as Speculative Nano / Micro-cap (confidence 80%). Disagree? An admin can override via the post edit screen.

PEER BASKET — TIGHT COMPARABLES

⚠ Genuine comparables are scarce at this size, so peer multiples are unreliable here. Treat as rough context only — see 📍 What to focus on above.

How does AGPU stack up against its closest peers?

We take the 7 same-industry companies most similar to AGPU (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If AGPU is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)
EV / Sales?EV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt).
Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices.
Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding
Full explanation →		 0.7x / 5.8x / 11.5x

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 7 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.

What AGPU would be worth at the median peer's multiple
$0.66
If AGPU traded at the typical (median) peer's EV/Sales multiple, the share price would be about $0.66.
Plain English: the stock currently trades at $10.62. That's 1,506.6% MORE than the peer multiple suggests. The market is paying a big premium — AGPU looks expensive vs peers. Either the market thinks this stock deserves a premium (faster growth, better margins, brand moat), or it's overpriced.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GP EV/EBIT FCF Yield
SATA Strive, Inc. Financial Services $168M 46.0x — — 1.3%
MI NFT Ltd Financial Services $224M 308.7x 419.8x — 0.1%
OPRT Oportun Financial Corp Financial Services $224M 11.5x — — 164.5%
HKD AMTD Digital Inc. Financial Services $225M 9.7x — 432.6x 6.4%
MFIN MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP Financial Services $232M — — — 46.8%
LDI loanDepot, Inc. Financial Services $245M 2.0x — — —
SNFCA SECURITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL CORP Financial Services $247M 0.7x — — 17.2%
TONX TON Strategy Co Financial Services ·fallback $225M 17.6x — — 0.1%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
n/a
Not reliably computable

We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. The classic manufacturing-calibrated model also fits asset-light businesses like this one poorly. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.

Piotroski checks
3 passed · 5 failed · 1 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 3 of 8 measurable checks passed. 1 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 8, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✗ Positive net income
    Net income -$233.1M in the latest year.
    Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
  • ✗ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow -$9.9M (was -$10.1M the prior year).
    Why this matters: Profit can be an accounting figure; cash from running the business is harder to fake. Negative operating cash flow means the core business consumes cash and must be funded externally.
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow -$9.9M vs net income -$233.1M.
  • ✗ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets -440.7% vs -254.7% a year ago.
    Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 0.0% of assets vs 0.0% a year ago ($0.0M now).
  • ✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 10.02x vs 0.62x a year ago.
  • ✗ Share count (dilution)
    Share count rose 4,693.9% (0.4M → 17.4M year-over-year).
    Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • ✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.00x vs 0.02x a year ago.
    Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

Cash Runway
13 mo
MODERATE — 1-2 years of runway

Plain English: the company holds about $11M in cash and is burning roughly $10M/year in operations. At that pace, the cash lasts 13 mo before it must raise capital (diluting shareholders), take on debt, or cut spending.

Assumes constant burn and ignores financing/asset sales. For pre-profit biotech and growth companies, this matters more than a DCF — a great drug pipeline is worthless if they run out of money before approval.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for AGPU. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for AGPU because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation quietly eats returns: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is only ~6% in real purchasing power. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF cancels inflation out of both growth and the discount rate), so this doesn't change the value — it shows what's left of your return after the tax.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think AGPU can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$10.62
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. See Reverse DCF and Football Field below.

    A standard discounted cash flow?DCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
    Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
    Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
    Full explanation →     valuation is not meaningful for Axe Compute Inc. because the company exhibits negative operating cash flow and declining revenue, making future cash flows highly uncertain. Investors are likely betting on a significant turnaround or the realization of optionality not captured by historical financials. The market may be assigning value to the potential for new product development in high-performance computing, which is not in the model. The number one quantifiable risk is the severe revenue decline of -45.5% per year over the last four years.

    ⚠️ FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.

    As of 2 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    AGPU Axe Compute Inc. stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    −186,053.4%
    loss
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    For every $1 of revenue, AGPU currently loses 186,053.4¢ — costs exceed sales. A money-losing business can still be a good investment if losses are shrinking toward profitability; check the trend, not just the snapshot.
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: $11/share buys $0.01 of revenue per share per year, generates $13.37 lost per share per year, and $0.63 of cash burned per share (negative free cash flow). Each share carries $0.00 of debt.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    For the stock to work, revenue must re-accelerate significantly from the current -45.5%/yr decline, indicating successful product development or market penetration.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The biggest fundamental risk is the continued negative operating cash flow and declining revenue, which implies an unsustainable business model if not reversed.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • A re-acceleration in revenue growth in upcoming filings.
    • A shift to positive operating cash flow.
    • Announcements of new product segments or strategic partnerships.
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (2024 → 2025)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Revenue grew +48% to $125K.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Free cash flow is negative at -$10.9M — the cash burn widened vs last year.
    • Still unprofitable at -$233.1M — loss widening.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Limited executive data available. Axe Compute Inc. operates in the financial services sector, and information regarding its current leadership is not readily available in public filings for this analysis.

    CEO Full Name
    Chief Executive Officer
    Other Exec Full Name
    Their title
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Axe Compute Inc. is a company operating within the financial services sector. Specific details about its products or services and target customers are not available from the provided description.

    End Markets

    Financial ServicesHigh-Performance ComputingData Analytics
    Market Cap: 185.1MBeta: 2.02
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer This company's reported free cash flow is negative, so a discounted-cash-flow valuation has no positive cash stream to discount. That is a fact about the business, not missing data — the reported figures below are complete.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market's pricing for AGPU is likely driven by expectations of future growth or a significant strategic shift rather than current profitability, given its negative net income and operating cash flow. The market may be assigning value to potential technological breakthroughs in compute infrastructure for financial applications, which is not in the model. The adequate current ratio of 10.02 suggests some liquidity, which might be a factor for investors looking at its cash runway.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    Business model analysis not yet available for this stock.

    Growth / Revenue DCF

    Negative free cash flow: revenue/margin growth model used - standard FCF DCF is unreliable for companies still scaling.

    Show advanced inputs
    RevenueGrowth2.0%

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project net interest income and fee-income lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Growth / re-investment phase

    Revenue is declining at -45.5% per year over the last four years, from $1M to $0M.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Geographic mix data is not available from current data sources. The company's primary operational regions are not specified in the provided information.

    Geographic Risks

    Concentration risk due to undefined customer base or product focus.
    Lack of geographic diversification due to unavailable data.
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model neutral, tape neutral - aligned.
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    60.0NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
    50-Day Average$4.71Price above (+125.5%)Price above its 50-day average = near-term uptrend.
    200-Day Average$7.11Price aboveThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossDeath50-day below 200-dayA "death cross" — the medium trend is below the long trend (often read as bearish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (5 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (5)
    • FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
    • Terminal growth (3%) capped to 1.6% (80% of near-term growth 2%).
    • INVARIANT: weighted IV is non-positive. Model may not be appropriate.
    • Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
    • Illiquidity discount 15% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From Axe Compute Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    2025125,284-233.1M$-13.37
    202484,812-12.7M$-34.83
    20231.6M-14.0M$-3.48
    20221.5M-25.7M$-6.98
    20211.4M-19.7M$-0.36

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 -9.9M — 1.0M -10.9M
    2024 -10.1M 9,510 — -10.1M
    2023 -11.8M 21,533 — -11.8M
    2022 -12.4M 419,869 166,312 -13.0M
    2021 -12.2M 910,429 715,938 -13.8M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: -9.9M − — − 1.0M (SBC & adj.) = -10.9M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets52.9M
    Total Liabilities5.2M
    Equity47.7M
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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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