HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP (HYMC) Stock Analysis

Price updated 3 days ago · SEC data refreshed 3 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP

HYMC Basic Materials Gold & Silver Mining📄 SEC filings ↗
Valuation N/A
Long-term trend (200d) 12% below 200-day Risk 42/100 Elevated
▾ What's in the 42/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 20/100 → +8.6
leverage 20/100
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 65/100 → +20.4
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 50/100 → +12.9
Total42/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $21.18 · 3 days ago 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 3 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read HYMC (cyclical commodity producer)

A miner or energy producer earns whatever the commodity price is, so a single DCF swings with the cycle. Judge it against peers and where you think the commodity cycle is heading.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 EV/Sales peer comparison ↓
    How the price compares to similar producers is more meaningful than a through-cycle DCF.
  2. 2 Interactive calculator (test cycle assumptions) ↓
    Flex the growth/discount inputs to see how sensitive the value is to where we are in the cycle.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
A note on process: fear-driven decisions — including fear of missing out — tend to be the expensive ones. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not evidence. Whichever reader you are, the data below is there to be checked before anything is decided.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Using the right valuation lens for this business type

Standard DCF doesn't fit HYMC well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The EV/Sales Peer Comparison below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value gold & silver mining. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.

ⓘ Why a standard DCF doesn't settle this one — HYMC is a cyclical commodity producer

Miners, metals and energy producers earn whatever the commodity price is at the time. A discounted-cash-flow model leans on recent cash flow, so it swings with the cycle: the result is dominated by where we are in the commodity cycle rather than by durable business economics.

For this business type, lean on the EV/Sales peer comparison and Reverse-DCF below (how today's price compares to similar producers and what growth it implies), and weigh the commodity-price outlook. Treat the DCF number as a rough mid-cycle reference, not a buy/sell trigger.

ⓘ Why does HYMC trade at $21.18?

HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP has 43.3 million shares outstanding. At $21.18 per share, the market values all outstanding HYMC equity at $916 million. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash (HYMC carries little or no debt, so the two are close here). The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values HYMC in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
Checking filings for failure warnings…
PEER BASKET — TIGHT COMPARABLES

How does HYMC stack up against its closest peers?

We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to HYMC (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If HYMC is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, FCF yield (in the table) is usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.

Peer-implied value check
Not enough clean peer EV/Sales multiples to derive a reliable median (some were dropped as implausible/outliers). The EV/EBIT and FCF-yield rows above are the better read here; also lean on the DCF.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GPEV/EBIT FCF Yield
NEWP NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP Gold & Silver Mining $849M — —— —
VZLA Vizsla Silver Corp. Gold & Silver Mining $1.0B — —— —
TMQ Trilogy Metals Inc. Gold & Silver Mining $813M — —— 0.2%
MTA Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. Gold & Silver Mining $730M — 76.9x— —
HSLV Highlander Silver Corp. Gold & Silver Mining $720M — —— —
ODV Osisko Development Corp. Gold & Silver Mining $714M — —— —
NFGC New Found Gold Corp. Gold & Silver Mining $712M — —— —
GROY Gold Royalty Corp. Gold & Silver Mining $710M — —— —
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Not available for this filer

The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.

Piotroski-style checks (partial — not a standard F-score)
3 passed · 4 failed · 2 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 3 of 7 measurable checks passed. 2 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 7, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✗ Positive net income
    Net income -$40.7M in FY2025.
    Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
  • ✗ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow -$82.9M (was -$35.9M the prior year).
    Why this matters: Profit can be an accounting figure; cash from running the business is harder to fake. Negative operating cash flow means the core business consumes cash and must be funded externally.
  • ✗ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow -$82.9M vs net income -$40.7M.
    Why this matters: When cash generated exceeds reported earnings, profits are high-quality (not propped up by accruals or one-time items).
  • ✓ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets -15.5% vs -43.5% a year ago.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    Total debt is 0.0% of assets vs 89.2% a year ago ($0.0M of $263.0M assets).
  • ✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 24.24x vs 9.42x a year ago.
  • ✗ Share count (dilution)
    Share count rose 86.7% (23.2M → 43.3M year-over-year).
    Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • · Sales per asset (asset turnover) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

Cash Runway
2.2 yrs
COMFORTABLE — 2+ years at the current burn

Plain English: the company holds about $182M in cash and is burning roughly $83M/year in operations. At that pace, the cash lasts 2.2 yrs before it must raise capital (diluting shareholders), take on debt, or cut spending.

Assumes constant burn and ignores financing/asset sales. For pre-profit biotech and growth companies, this matters more than a DCF — a great drug pipeline is worthless if they run out of money before approval.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for HYMC. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for HYMC because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
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—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a nominal return: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is about 6% in real terms. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF carries inflation in both the growth and the discount rate), so this switch does not change the value — it restates the return in real terms.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think HYMC can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$21.18
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. The other valuation lenses on this page (reverse-DCF, peers, sector lens — whichever apply to this filer) carry the read instead.

    A standard discounted cash flow?DCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
    Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
    Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
    Full explanation →     valuation is not meaningful for Hycroft Mining due to its consistently negative operating cash flow and net income, indicating a cash-burning growth stage. Investors are likely focused on the company's ability to successfully develop its mining assets and achieve positive cash flow from operations. The primary quantifiable risk is the continued negative operating cash flow.

    ⚠️ Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).

    As of 3 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    HYMC HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    −183.1%
    loss
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    For every $1 of revenue, HYMC currently loses 183.1¢ — costs exceed sales. A money-losing business can still be a good investment if losses are shrinking toward profitability; check the trend, not just the snapshot.
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: each share (at $21) represents revenue that isn't reported in machine-readable form for this filer (so no revenue-per-share figure here), $0.94 lost per share per year, and $1.97 of cash burned per share (negative free cash flow) from the latest fiscal year. The filing reports no interest-bearing debt — the 49.3M of total liabilities on the balance sheet are operating items (payables, leases, deferred taxes), not borrowings.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    Operating cash flow must turn positive and sustain profitability, demonstrating the economic viability of the Hycroft Mine's development plan.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    Continued negative operating cash flow, as seen in the latest period, implies ongoing cash burn and potential need for further dilutive financing.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Updates on mine development and production ramp-up
    • Quarterly operating cash flow figures
    • Changes in gold and silver prices
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Still unprofitable at -$40.7M — loss narrowing.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Free cash flow is negative at -$85.3M — the cash burn widened vs last year.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Diane R. Garrett serves as the President and CEO of Hycroft Mining, leading the company's strategic direction and operational development. Stephen Jones is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    Diane R. Garrett
    President and Chief Executive Officer
    Stephen Jones
    Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation is a gold and silver producer focused on the development and operation of its Hycroft Mine in Nevada. It sells unrefined gold and silver doré to refiners.

    End Markets

    Precious Metals MarketGold Mining IndustrySilver Mining Industry

    Revenue Drivers

    Gold production volume
    Silver production volume
    Market prices of gold and silver
    Market Cap: 916.3MBeta: 1.62
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Source of precious metals
    Diversification for investors
    Inflation hedge
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer This company's reported free cash flow is negative, so a discounted-cash-flow valuation has no positive cash stream to discount. That is a fact about the business, not missing data — the reported figures below are complete.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market is pricing Hycroft Mining based on its potential to become a significant gold and silver producer, rather than current cash flows, which are negative. Investors are betting on the successful development of its Hycroft Mine, despite the company's negative operating cash flow and net income, as indicated by the health signals.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Extraction and processing of gold ore
    Extraction and processing of silver ore
    Sale of gold and silver doré

    The company funds itself through equity raises and has reduced its long-term debt from $160M to $0M, indicating a focus on strengthening its balance sheet.

    Normalized FCF

    Cyclical/commodity sector (Gold & Silver Mining) with negative current FCF: normalized FCF uses multi-year median to smooth through the cycle.

    Show advanced inputs
    Revenue Growth-70.0%
    Sector Default5.0%
    Best Estimate5.0%
    Methodsector_default
    Growth Basistotal

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project production volumes, realized commodity prices and unit cash costs independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Cyclical / commodity-linked producer

    Moat Signals

    Large mineral resource base
    Strategic location in Nevada
    Existing mining infrastructure

    Net income and operating cash flow have been negative in the latest period and for 0/5 years, indicating a challenging financial trend.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Hycroft Mining operates exclusively in the United States, with its primary asset being the Hycroft Mine located in northern Nevada.

    Geographic Risks

    Concentration risk in a single mining asset (Hycroft Mine)
    Regulatory and environmental risks inherent to mining operations
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model neutral, tape neutral - aligned.
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    42.5NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
    50-Day Average$36.68Price below (-42.3%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$23.94Price belowThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossGolden50-day above 200-dayA "golden cross" — the medium trend has overtaken the long trend (often read as bullish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (7 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (7)
    • Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).
    • Median OCF is negative — OCF-based normalization not applicable.
    • Normalized OCF-capex was negative. Falling back to median raw FCF.
    • No positive normalized FCF. Using EPS as proxy.
    • Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
    • Extreme valuation (P/IV withheld — see the note above); output dominated by data/units issue (often a multi-class share-count mismatch). Suppressed.
    • DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP's SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    2025—-40.7M$-0.94
    2024—-60.9M$-2.63
    2023—-55.0M$-2.61
    202233.2M-60.8M$-3.58
    2021110.7M-88.6M$-1.47

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 -82.9M 564,000 1.9M -85.3M
    2024 -35.9M 1.3M 2.6M -39.8M
    2023 -41.4M 1.1M 2.9M -45.4M
    2022 -34.9M 951,000 2.5M -38.3M
    2021 -37.0M 7.0M 2.3M -46.3M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: -82.9M − 564,000 − 1.9M (SBC & adj.) = -85.3M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a mid-cycle estimate (median operating cash flow less estimated maintenance capex and stock compensation — by design NOT the table's FCF, which deducts every year's full capex), not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets263.0M
    Total Liabilities49.3M
    Equity213.7M
    YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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