Vitesse Energy, Inc. (VTS) Stock Analysis

Price updated today · SEC data refreshed 2 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

Vitesse Energy, Inc.

VTS Energy Oil & Gas Extraction📄 SEC filings ↗
Deeply undervalued by model
Price vs model IV Well below (79% below model IV) Long-term trend (200d) 23% below 200-day DCF applicability High Risk 22/100 Moderate
▾ What's in the 22/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Valuation (price vs model IV) (30%) 10/100 → +3.0
Fundamental health (30%) 24/100 → +7.2
leverage 20/100 · FCF trend 25/100 · DCF applicability 30/100 · Altman Z not scored — input unavailable (see Financial Health)
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (22%) 31/100 → +6.8
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (18%) 28/100 → +5.0
Total22/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend, DCF applicability). It excludes the the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately, which relies on a proxied (estimated) input. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $16.22 · today 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 2 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read VTS (cyclical commodity producer)

A miner or energy producer earns whatever the commodity price is, so a single DCF swings with the cycle. Judge it against peers and where you think the commodity cycle is heading.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 EV/Sales peer comparison ↓
    How the price compares to similar producers is more meaningful than a through-cycle DCF.
  2. 2 Interactive calculator (test cycle assumptions) ↓
    Flex the growth/discount inputs to see how sensitive the value is to where we are in the cycle.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
One rule first: never trade out of fear — and that includes the fear of missing out. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not data. If you can't point to the evidence behind a trade, you're more likely to lose. So whichever of these you are, check the data below before you act.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
⚖️
"Is it worth what it costs?"
The valuation trade. Our DCF, the growth the price implies, and a calculator you drive yourself.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Why a standard DCF doesn't settle this one — VTS is a cyclical commodity producer

Miners, metals and energy producers earn whatever the commodity price is at the time. A discounted-cash-flow model leans on recent cash flow, so it swings with the cycle: right now VTS trades well below our through-cycle DCF — typical when commodity prices (and therefore profits) are near a cycle low. That isn't automatically "deep value"; depressed cash flow can stay depressed while the cycle is weak.

For this business type, lean on the EV/Sales peer comparison and Reverse-DCF below (how today's price compares to similar producers and what growth it implies), and weigh the commodity-price outlook. Treat the DCF number as a rough mid-cycle reference, not a buy/sell trigger.

ⓘ Why does VTS trade at $16.22?

Vitesse Energy, Inc. has 39.6 million shares outstanding. At $16.22 per share, the market values all outstanding VTS equity at $642 million. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash (VTS carries little or no debt, so the two are close here). The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values VTS in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
VALUATION LENS — REVERSE DCF

What cash-flow improvement must the market believe? ?Reverse DCF — Instead of asking "what is this stock worth?", asks "what growth rate is the current market price already assuming?"
Why it matters: It crystallizes the bull thesis as a single number you can argue with. If the market expects 40% growth for 10 years and you do not believe that, the stock is overvalued.
Reference: 10–15% = sustainable for strong companies · 20–25% = exceptional · 30%+ = historically very rare

Reverse DCF treats today's price as correct and solves for the cash-flow path that justifies it. For a cyclical, read the result as the annual improvement in through-cycle free cash flow the price requires — which could come from higher realized commodity prices, margin recovery, lower input costs, more volume, or reduced capex, not just organic growth. The starting base is our normalized mid-cycle median, not last year's number.

To justify today's $16.22 price, VTS's through-cycle free cash flow?Free Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation → must improve by:
-14.6%
10-year flat improvement in through-cycle FCF implied by today's price
This is a different figure from the -17.9% in the verdict at the top: that one is the 5-year implied per-share growth on the model's scenario-weighted path, while this is a 10-year flat rate. Different horizon and shape, so a different number — not a contradiction. Both are solved at today's live price.
▾ Exactly how this 10-year figure is computed
Starting FCF/share: $2.97 (normalized multi-year median)
Forecast length: 10 years, single flat growth rate (no fade)
Terminal growth after year 10: 2.5%
Discount rate: 7.6% (the rate the model used)
Price used: $16.22 — the live price shown on this page (not frozen)
Method: solve for the constant annual growth rate that makes the discounted 10-year FCF stream + terminal value equal today's price.
Priced for decline

Market is pricing in shrinking cash flow — often a sign of undervaluation OR a dying business. Check leverage, the cash-flow trend and the measurable financial-health screens below to tell them apart.

For reference: The market is pricing in a material multi-year contraction in cash flow (≈14.6%/yr) — a significant decline, not a flat business.

The market is pricing in a material multi-year contraction in cash flow (≈14.6%/yr). That points to one of two things: the business is genuinely in decline (so a low price is fair), or the market is overreacting (a bargain). Revenue has actually been growing at 13.0%/yr over the last 4 years — one data point in that debate. The way to tell them apart is the financial-health trend: check leverage, the cash-flow trend and the measurable Piotroski checks below. Strong and improving health behind a "decline" price often signals opportunity; weak and deteriorating health usually means the market is right.
▾ How we computed this · Reality check thresholds · Assumptions
Inputs:
  • Starting FCF/share: $2.97 (normalized multi-year median)
  • Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
    Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
    Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
    Full explanation →    : 7.6% — standard 8-12%; 9-10% matches S&P 500 historical return
  • Terminal Growth Rate?Terminal Growth Rate — The growth rate we assume the company holds forever, after the explicit 10-year forecast period ends.
    Why it matters: It anchors the long-tail value. Cannot mathematically exceed long-term GDP growth or the company eventually becomes larger than the global economy.
    Reference: 2–3% (matches long-term US GDP growth) · Above 4% is mathematically problematic
    Full explanation →    : 2.5% — matches long-term GDP growth
  • Forecast horizon: 10 years explicit + terminal perpetuity
Reality-check scale:
≤ 0%Priced for decline — likely undervalued OR dying business
5-12%Reasonable; sustainable for quality businesses
12-18%Demanding — strong execution required
18-25%Exceptional — few companies sustain for a decade
25-35%Heroic — historically very rare
35%+Borderline impossible at scale

Sustaining 30%+ cash-flow growth for a full decade at scale is exceedingly rare — the bar is brutally high.

Use the interactive calculator below to change the discount rate, growth and terminal-growth assumptions and watch the value move.

VALUATION RANGE — CROSS-METHOD CHECK

Football field: where does the price sit?

Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.

If FCF grew -5%/yr → 14%/yr (flat 10-yr DCF sweep; model assumes 8.0%)$33$149Our model's scenarios (cons→opt growth, weighted 40/35/25)$65$91Current: $16.22$15$50$85$121$156
Every model's range sits above the current price, but that does not prove mispricing. The gap may reflect secular or cyclical pressures, leverage, or information not yet captured by the model. Review recent filings and test lower normalized cash-flow assumptions before relying on the valuation.

Industry multiples sourced from: industry similar to Oil & Gas. See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.

PEER BASKET — TIGHT COMPARABLES

How does VTS stack up against its closest peers?

We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to VTS (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If VTS is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)
EV / Sales?EV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt).
Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices.
Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding
Full explanation →		 1.8x / 2.3x / 2.7x
EV / EBIT?EV / EBITDA — Enterprise value divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization.
Why it matters: A classic "what would a private buyer pay" multiple — used in M&A. Strips out tax and capital-structure noise.
Reference: 8–12x for mature businesses · 15–25x for growth · Below 5x often signals distress
Full explanation →		 7.0x / 8.9x / 21.7x

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.

What VTS would be worth at the median peer's multiple
$15.98
If VTS traded at the typical (median) peer's EV/Sales multiple, the share price would be about $15.98.
Plain English: the stock currently trades at $16.22. That's within ~10% of the peer-implied value — fairly priced vs peers.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GP EV/EBIT FCF Yield
GRNT Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. Oil & Gas Extraction $641M 2.2x — 21.7x 37.4%
REPX Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Oil & Gas Extraction $679M 2.4x — 7.0x 23.5%
TXO TXO Partners, L.P. Oil & Gas Extraction $703M 2.7x — — 13.8%
GFR Greenfire Resources Ltd. Oil & Gas Extraction $706M — — — —
OBE OBSIDIAN ENERGY LTD. Oil & Gas Extraction $737M — — — —
WTI W&T OFFSHORE INC Oil & Gas Extraction $548M 1.8x — — 16.9%
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC /DE/ Oil & Gas Extraction $544M 1.7x — — 19.0%
SD SANDRIDGE ENERGY INC Oil & Gas Extraction $542M 3.5x — 8.9x 15.5%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
n/a
Not reliably computable

We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.

Piotroski checks
7 passed · 1 failed · 1 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 7 of 8 measurable checks passed. 1 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 8, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✓ Positive net income
    Net income $25.3M in the latest year.
  • ✓ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow $170.3M (was $155.0M the prior year).
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow $170.3M vs net income $25.3M.
  • ✓ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets 2.8% vs 2.6% a year ago.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 0.0% of assets vs 0.0% a year ago ($0.0M now).
  • ✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 1.02x vs 0.51x a year ago.
  • ✗ Share count (dilution)
    Share count rose 20.2% (32.9M → 39.6M year-over-year).
    Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • ✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.31x vs 0.30x a year ago.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 7.6%, the figure our model used for VTS. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: at default inputs this calculator mirrors the headline model's three-scenario weighting (conservative/base/optimistic, 40/35/25), so its opening value should land close to the headline intrinsic value of $75.63. A small gap is rounding; a large one would be a data problem — and we check for it below.

Probability-weighted model IV
$75.63
It trades at
$16.22
Margin of safety
78.6%
Price is 79% below model IV — it looks undervalued. Change the assumptions below to see what would justify today's price.
We value this stock at two discount rates and report the range between them:
7.6% — beta-based (CAPM), from this stock's Beta?Beta — How much the stock moves when the overall market moves. 1.0 = moves with the market; 1.5 = moves 50% more than the market.
Why it matters: Higher beta = more volatile = should demand higher discount rate. Low beta stocks (utilities, consumer staples) move less.
Reference: Most stocks 0.5–1.5 · Defensives ~0.3 · High-vol tech ~1.5–2.0
Full explanation → of 0.56. The safe Treasury rate plus a premium scaled by how much more (or less) volatile the stock is than the market.
12.0% — sector/quality tier. A simpler hurdle set by industry and business durability: lower for stable, wide-moat companies; higher for speculative or micro-caps.
The headline value and this calculator start at 7.6% — the beta-based rate. Drag the slider to the other rate to see the full range.
4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)
Flat-path value at your assumptions (single growth path — not the probability-weighted scenario IV)
$75.63
vs today's $16.22
-78.6%

At the default assumptions the flat path lands near our published value of $75.63. Move any slider to recompute it with your own.

For comparison — the FCF growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation quietly eats returns: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is only ~6% in real purchasing power. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF cancels inflation out of both growth and the discount rate), so this doesn't change the value — it shows what's left of your return after the tax.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think VTS can grow FCF for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$16.22
    Model IV$75.63
    Margin of Safety78.6%
    DCF applicabilityHigh
    ⚠️ Outlier ResultP/IV 0.2x — result dominated by model assumptions or data limits. Treat with caution.
    ⚠️ Outlier result (P/IV 0.2x) — this valuation gap is too extreme to produce reliable growth or return estimates. The model may not suit this company's profile.

    Vitesse Energy, Inc. is estimated to be deeply undervalued by the model, with a significant 77.2% discount. The market likely discounts VTS due to its low franchise/durability score of 1/5, suggesting concerns about its long-term competitive position despite recent positive financial health signals. The primary quantifiable risk is the implied decline rate of 17.9% compared to the model's 8.0%.

    ⚠️ Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).

    As of 2 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    VTS Vitesse Energy, Inc. stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    9.2%
    profit
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    Net profit — 9.2¢ of every dollar ($0.64/sh — latest fiscal-year net income per share)
    Costs & taxes — 90.8¢ (on $6.93 revenue/sh)
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: $16/share buys $6.93 of revenue per share per year, generates $0.64 of net income per current share, and $4.05 of owner-earnings free cash flow per current share (latest fiscal year). Each share carries $0.00 of debt. The DCF does not start from that single year — it instead starts from a normalized multi-year median of $2.97 per share to capture a full cycle.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    For the stock to work, the company must demonstrate that its positive operating cash flow, which has been positive for 5/5 years, can be sustained and grow, validating the model's 8.0% growth assumption over the market's implied -17.9%.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The biggest fundamental risk is the low franchise/durability score of 1/5; if this lack of competitive advantage persists, VTS may struggle to maintain its revenue growth and positive net income in a volatile energy market.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Next quarter's operating cash flow trend
    • Changes in the company's debt levels
    • Updates on acquisition activity and asset development
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (2024 → 2025)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Revenue grew +13% to $274.0M.
    • Free cash flow rose to $160.1M.
    • Net income grew +20% to $25.3M.
    ⚠ Worsening

    Nothing clearly worsening year-over-year.

    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Robert Gerrity serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Vitesse Energy, Inc. The company focuses on non-operated oil and gas assets. Limited executive data beyond the CEO is publicly available.

    Robert Gerrity
    Chief Executive Officer
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Vitesse Energy, Inc. is an independent energy company focused on the acquisition and development of non-operated oil and gas properties, primarily in the Bakken and Three Forks formations. Its customers are typically larger operators who manage the wells.

    End Markets

    Oil & Gas ExplorationEnergy ProductionHydrocarbon Resources

    Revenue Drivers

    Crude oil sales
    Natural gas sales
    Natural gas liquids sales
    Market Cap: 641.5MBeta: 0.56
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Provides capital to develop non-operated assets
    Offers exposure to prolific oil and gas basins
    Partners with experienced operators
    Intrinsic Value$75.63
    Discount to IV 78.6%
    Outlier Result P/IV 0.2x — valuation gap too extreme for meaningful implied growth or return estimates.

    The market prices VTS at a 77.2% discount to the model, likely due to its low franchise/durability score of 1/5. This suggests investor skepticism about its long-term competitive advantages and ability to sustain performance, despite recent revenue growth of 13%/yr and positive operating cash flow. The bearish trend (RSI 38.2) further indicates current market sentiment.

    Three Scenarios, Weighted
    ScenarioIVvs PriceWeight
    Conservative$64.64298.5%40%
    Base$76.94374.3%35%
    Optimistic$91.38463.4%25%
    Weighted$75.63366.3%100%
    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Acquisition of non-operated working interests in oil and gas wells
    Development of existing and new wells through capital allocation
    Sale of produced crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids

    As a cyclical sector company, Vitesse Energy funds itself through its positive operating cash flow, which is then normalized for estimated maintenance capex.

    Normalized FCF High

    Cyclical/commodity sector (Oil & Gas Extraction): normalized FCF uses 5-year median to smooth peak/trough distortions.

    In plain English: we estimate VTS's value by projecting its owner-earnings free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure and stock-based compensation) into the future and converting it back to what it's worth today. We start from $2.97 per share (normalized multi-year median), assume it grows 8.0% per year for about 5 years (then gradually fades), and discount everything at 7.6% — the yearly return a buyer should demand for this much risk. After that it's assumed to grow 2.5% per year forever (roughly the long-run pace of the whole economy). A higher discount rate or slower growth means a lower value, and vice-versa — change any of these yourself in the calculator above.
    Owner-earnings FCF / share$2.97normalized multi-year median — smoothed, not the latest single year
    Growth (g₁) — 5yr8.0%Source: blend(70% revenue cagr, 30% sector)
    Discount Rate (r)7.6%
    Terminal Growth (gT)2.5%
    Show advanced inputs
    RevenueGrowth13.0%
    HistoricalFcfGrowth17.0%
    SectorDefault4.0%
    BestEstimate10.3%
    Methodblend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector)
    GrowthBasistotal

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project production volumes, realized commodity prices and unit cash costs independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Cyclical / commodity-linked producer

    Moat Signals

    Access to capital for acquisitions
    Expertise in non-operated asset management
    Diversified portfolio of wells

    Revenue has been growing at 13%/yr over four years, from $168M to $274M.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Vitesse Energy, Inc. primarily operates in the United States, focusing on key oil and gas basins such as the Bakken and Three Forks formations. Specific geographic mix percentages are not available from current data sources.

    Geographic Risks

    Concentration risk in specific US oil and gas basins
    Exposure to volatile commodity prices (oil and natural gas)
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model bullish, tape bearish - divergence suggests timing risk.
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    38.2NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
    50-Day Average$18.34Price below (-11.6%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$20.97Price belowThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossDeath50-day below 200-dayA "death cross" — the medium trend is below the long trend (often read as bearish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (3 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (3)
    • Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).
    • Median OCF: $147.04M, est. maintenance capex: $29.41M, normalized FCF: $117.63M.
    • Illiquidity discount 7% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From Vitesse Energy, Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    2025274.0M25.3M$0.64
    2024242.0M21.1M$0.64
    2023233.9M-19.7M$-0.73
    2022281.9M118.9M$0.26
    2021167.8M18.1M$0.04

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 170.3M — 10.2M 160.1M
    2024 155.0M — 8.1M 146.9M
    2023 141.9M — 32.2M 109.7M
    2022 147.0M — 10.8M 136.3M
    2021 87.0M — 1.4M 85.6M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 170.3M − — − 10.2M (SBC & adj.) = 160.1M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a normalized multi-year median, not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets893.4M
    Total Liabilities264.0M
    Equity629.3M
    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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