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Verdict

Deep Overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Deep Overvalued — 1,218 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Deep Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Deep Overvalued" here means IRR more than 3 points under Treasuries (10-yr Treasury 5.00% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR below Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
No edge Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by −2.5 pts (2,338 entries, 453 companies, unlikely to be luck). 42% of entries beat the S&P; 12% beat it by 30 points or more; 29% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −4.2 pts.
−2.5 ptsvs S&P, average
42%beat the S&P
12%up 30+ pts vs S&P
29%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+1.8 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−14.4 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
-3.0luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −1.0 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.9 pts 42% beat12 mo: −2.5 pts 43% beat24 mo: −6.5 pts 37% beat3 yr, per yr: −5.8 pts 31% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today2,081−2.7 pts t -3.3+1.5 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)257−0.2 pts t -0.1+3.9 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing890−4.3 pts t -3.3−7.4 pts
Tech hardware & semis201+7.2 pts t 1.7−5.7 pts
Services169−7.4 pts t -3.3−8.7 pts
Retail & consumer154+0.2 pts t 0.1−3.2 pts
Medical devices140−2.8 pts t -0.9−7.1 pts
Other130−0.7 pts t -0.3−1.6 pts
Software & IT services107−0.8 pts t -0.3+0.0 pts
Biotech & pharma94−0.8 pts t -0.2−5.1 pts
Finance & real estate92−3.5 pts t -1.2−2.6 pts
Energy75−9.2 pts t -2.2−12.9 pts
Food, drink & tobacco58−8.7 pts t -1.6−10.1 pts
Utilities54−4.0 pts t -1.1−4.9 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: −0.9 pts (n 837, t -0.8). From 2018: −3.4 pts (n 1,501, t -3.0). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P−4 pts+2 pts−1 pts−8 pts−2 pts+1 pts+6 pts+1 pts−11 pts+15 pts−10 pts+3 pts−12 pts−14 pts+4 pts
n32789182168173195216189183231183168185146

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

DY
DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield2.0%
Growth used13.7%
10-yr IRR2.0%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.10
Market implies +14.2%/yr vs model +13.7% · in line
TJX
TJX COMPANIES INC /DE/
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield3.1%
Growth used6.3%
10-yr IRR2.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.48
Market implies +10.2%/yr vs model +6.3% · above model
FSS
FEDERAL SIGNAL CORP /DE/
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield2.8%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR2.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.68
Market implies +21.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
SBUX
STARBUCKS CORP
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 72 · High
Yield2.8%
Growth used7.8%
10-yr IRR2.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.65
Market implies +19.4%/yr vs model +7.8% · above model
CASY
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield2.0%
Growth used13.8%
10-yr IRR1.9%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.44
Market implies +12.5%/yr vs model +13.8% · in line
TG
TREDEGAR CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield3.3%
Growth used5.0%
10-yr IRR1.9%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.69
Market implies +14.9%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
EMR
EMERSON ELECTRIC CO
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield2.3%
Growth used11.1%
10-yr IRR1.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.10
Market implies +20.4%/yr vs model +11.1% · above model
ON
ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield3.3%
Growth used4.9%
10-yr IRR1.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +23.0%/yr vs model +4.9% · above model
SW
Smurfit Westrock plc
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield2.7%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR1.7%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.43
Market implies +19.8%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
AGYS
AGILYSYS INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield1.8%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR1.7%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.56
Market implies +21.1%/yr vs model +16.5% · above model
AU
AngloGold Ashanti PLC
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield2.7%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR1.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 5.37
Market implies +30.5%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
TMO
THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield2.9%
Growth used6.5%
10-yr IRR1.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.60
Market implies +14.5%/yr vs model +6.5% · above model
PKG
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 64 · High
Yield3.4%
Growth used4.2%
10-yr IRR1.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.86
Market implies +12.5%/yr vs model +4.2% · above model
GWW
W.W. GRAINGER, INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 68 · High
Yield2.4%
Growth used9.7%
10-yr IRR1.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.10
Market implies +18.2%/yr vs model +9.7% · above model
AVNT
AVIENT CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 61 · High
Yield3.6%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR1.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.78
Market implies +12.9%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
LSTR
LANDSTAR SYSTEM INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 62 · High
Yield4.7%
Growth used-1.2%
10-yr IRR1.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.64
Market implies +12.1%/yr vs model -1.2% · above model
PRLB
Proto Labs Inc
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 60 · High
Yield2.9%
Growth used6.6%
10-yr IRR1.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.83
Market implies +25.6%/yr vs model +6.6% · above model
IH
iHuman Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield3.8%
Growth used2.0%
10-yr IRR1.6%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.26
Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
JNJ
JOHNSON & JOHNSON
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 49 · Elevated
Yield2.8%
Growth used7.3%
10-yr IRR1.5%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.18
Market implies +8.4%/yr vs model +7.3% · in line
RCL
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 63 · High
Yield1.8%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR1.5%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.24
Market implies +29.5%/yr vs model +25.0% · above model
TRMB
TRIMBLE INC.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 60 · High
Yield3.3%
Growth used4.3%
10-yr IRR1.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.67
Market implies +25.8%/yr vs model +4.3% · above model
CBRE
CBRE GROUP, INC.
Below Treasuries
Real Estate Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield2.2%
Growth used11.4%
10-yr IRR1.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.48
Market implies +15.9%/yr vs model +11.4% · above model
DLTR
DOLLAR TREE, INC.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield4.3%
Growth used-0.2%
10-yr IRR1.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.37
Market implies +9.6%/yr vs model -0.2% · above model
FLEX
FLEX LTD.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 33 · Moderate
Yield2.4%
Growth used9.8%
10-yr IRR1.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +29.9%/yr vs model +9.8% · above model
ALIT
Alight, Inc. / Delaware
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 30 · Moderate
Yield3.3%
Growth used4.2%
10-yr IRR1.4%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.19
Market implies +15.2%/yr vs model +4.2% · above model
MSS
Maison Solutions Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 25 · Moderate
Yield1.8%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR1.4%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.69
Market implies +19.0%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
ALNT
ALLIENT INC
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield2.5%
Growth used8.8%
10-yr IRR1.4%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.38
Market implies +21.0%/yr vs model +8.8% · above model
VSCO
Victoria's Secret & Co.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield3.1%
Growth used5.0%
10-yr IRR1.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.77
Market implies +20.1%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
PRM
Perimeter Solutions, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 49 · Elevated
Yield2.6%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR1.3%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +29.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
HLIO
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield3.5%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR1.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.50
Market implies +13.5%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
WTS
WATTS WATER TECHNOLOGIES INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 48 · Elevated
Yield2.7%
Growth used7.2%
10-yr IRR1.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.37
Market implies +11.8%/yr vs model +7.2% · above model
CMI
CUMMINS INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield2.4%
Growth used9.2%
10-yr IRR1.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.59
Market implies +18.5%/yr vs model +9.2% · above model
OII
OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL INC
Below Treasuries
Energy Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield2.7%
Growth used7.5%
10-yr IRR1.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.03
Market implies +19.7%/yr vs model +7.5% · above model
CHT
CHUNGHWA TELECOM CO LTD
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield4.2%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR1.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.10
Market implies +7.4%/yr vs model 0.0% · above model
ACA
Arcosa, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 60 · High
Yield2.6%
Growth used8.2%
10-yr IRR1.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.74
Market implies +22.8%/yr vs model +8.2% · above model
PLXS
PLEXUS CORP
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield2.6%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR1.1%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 4.67
Market implies +28.1%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
USLM
UNITED STATES LIME & MINERALS INC
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield2.6%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR1.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.61
Market implies +25.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
ZBRA
ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield3.2%
Growth used4.3%
10-yr IRR0.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.63
Market implies +16.1%/yr vs model +4.3% · above model
BIO
BIO-RAD LABORATORIES, INC.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield2.9%
Growth used5.5%
10-yr IRR0.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.23
Market implies +9.4%/yr vs model +5.5% · above model
CW
CURTISS WRIGHT CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield2.3%
Growth used9.8%
10-yr IRR0.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.12
Market implies +19.9%/yr vs model +9.8% · above model
RVLV
Revolve Group, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield2.4%
Growth used9.0%
10-yr IRR0.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.70
Market implies +21.6%/yr vs model +9.0% · above model
NPO
Enpro Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 69 · High
Yield2.5%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR0.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.35
Market implies +23.7%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
SANM
SANMINA CORP
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield2.1%
Growth used11.0%
10-yr IRR0.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.67
Market implies +20.9%/yr vs model +11.0% · above model
ROST
ROSS STORES, INC.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield2.5%
Growth used7.9%
10-yr IRR0.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.79
Market implies +14.1%/yr vs model +7.9% · above model
LXU
LSB INDUSTRIES, INC.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield3.3%
Growth used3.3%
10-yr IRR0.6%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.23
Market implies +3.5%/yr vs model +3.3% · in line
BJ
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield2.5%
Growth used8.1%
10-yr IRR0.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.50
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +8.1% · above model
ORLY
O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High
Yield2.5%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR0.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.63
Market implies +12.8%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
MSFT
MICROSOFT CORP
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield1.8%
Growth used13.3%
10-yr IRR0.6%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.01
Market implies +22.2%/yr vs model +13.3% · above model
CTVA
Corteva, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield3.2%
Growth used3.4%
10-yr IRR0.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.35
Market implies +14.3%/yr vs model +3.4% · above model
VMC
Vulcan Materials CO
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 61 · High
Yield2.5%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR0.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.39
Market implies +18.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
ADI
ANALOG DEVICES INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield2.0%
Growth used11.1%
10-yr IRR0.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.96
Market implies +22.3%/yr vs model +11.1% · above model
PBI
PITNEY BOWES INC /DE/
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 69 · High
Yield5.4%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR0.5%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.36
Market implies -1.4%/yr vs model -6.2% · above model
PH
Parker-Hannifin Corp
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield2.5%
Growth used7.7%
10-yr IRR0.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.84
Market implies +15.7%/yr vs model +7.7% · above model
AEM
AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 65 · High
Yield2.4%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR0.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +33.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
PLPC
PREFORMED LINE PRODUCTS CO
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield2.7%
Growth used6.5%
10-yr IRR0.4%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +31.6%/yr vs model +6.5% · above model
IDXX
IDEXX LABORATORIES INC /DE
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield2.2%
Growth used9.9%
10-yr IRR0.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.43
Market implies +18.7%/yr vs model +9.9% · above model
DAN
DANA Inc
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield3.9%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR0.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.03
Market implies +12.7%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
GRMN
GARMIN LTD
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield2.3%
Growth used8.7%
10-yr IRR0.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.24
Market implies +21.2%/yr vs model +8.7% · above model
CAT
CATERPILLAR INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 61 · High
Yield2.6%
Growth used6.9%
10-yr IRR0.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.43
Market implies +23.6%/yr vs model +6.9% · above model
NVEC
NVE CORP /NEW/
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 62 · High
Yield3.1%
Growth used3.4%
10-yr IRR0.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.10
Market implies +18.6%/yr vs model +3.4% · above model