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Verdict

Deep Overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Deep Overvalued — 1,218 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Deep Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Deep Overvalued" here means IRR more than 3 points under Treasuries (10-yr Treasury 5.00% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR below Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
No edge Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by −2.5 pts (2,338 entries, 453 companies, unlikely to be luck). 42% of entries beat the S&P; 12% beat it by 30 points or more; 29% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −4.2 pts.
−2.5 ptsvs S&P, average
42%beat the S&P
12%up 30+ pts vs S&P
29%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+1.8 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−14.4 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
-3.0luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −1.0 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.9 pts 42% beat12 mo: −2.5 pts 43% beat24 mo: −6.5 pts 37% beat3 yr, per yr: −5.8 pts 31% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today2,081−2.7 pts t -3.3+1.5 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)257−0.2 pts t -0.1+3.9 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing890−4.3 pts t -3.3−7.4 pts
Tech hardware & semis201+7.2 pts t 1.7−5.7 pts
Services169−7.4 pts t -3.3−8.7 pts
Retail & consumer154+0.2 pts t 0.1−3.2 pts
Medical devices140−2.8 pts t -0.9−7.1 pts
Other130−0.7 pts t -0.3−1.6 pts
Software & IT services107−0.8 pts t -0.3+0.0 pts
Biotech & pharma94−0.8 pts t -0.2−5.1 pts
Finance & real estate92−3.5 pts t -1.2−2.6 pts
Energy75−9.2 pts t -2.2−12.9 pts
Food, drink & tobacco58−8.7 pts t -1.6−10.1 pts
Utilities54−4.0 pts t -1.1−4.9 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: −0.9 pts (n 837, t -0.8). From 2018: −3.4 pts (n 1,501, t -3.0). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P−4 pts+2 pts−1 pts−8 pts−2 pts+1 pts+6 pts+1 pts−11 pts+15 pts−10 pts+3 pts−12 pts−14 pts+4 pts
n32789182168173195216189183231183168185146

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

CTRM
Castor Maritime Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield0.4%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR-26.1%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.09
Market implies +2.5%/yr vs model -7.0% · above model
MATW
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 67 · High
Yield0.2%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-27.8%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.70
Market implies +6.9%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
CVGI
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield0.2%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-28.1%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.52
Market implies -5.1%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
AA
Alcoa Corp
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield0.2%
Growth used2.5%
10-yr IRR-28.5%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.82
Market implies +23.4%/yr vs model +2.5% · above model
MLGO
MicroAlgo Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield0.2%
Growth used-1.7%
10-yr IRR-30.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.81
Market implies +8.8%/yr vs model -1.7% · above model
BUUU
BUUU Group Ltd
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 28 · Moderate
Yield0.0%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-34.3%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +80.0%/yr vs model +25.0% · above model
CLF
CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 32 · Moderate
Yield0.0%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-38.1%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.70
Market implies -9.7%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
EVI
EVI INDUSTRIES, INC.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield0.0%
Growth used9.6%
10-yr IRR-45.5%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +135.0%/yr vs model +9.6% · above model
FORTY
FORMULA SYSTEMS (1985) LTD
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield0.0%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-48.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +117.9%/yr
SWBI
SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield0.0%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR-54.3%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +131.3%/yr vs model -6.4% · above model