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Verdict

Deep Overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Deep Overvalued — 1,218 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Deep Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Deep Overvalued" here means IRR more than 3 points under Treasuries (10-yr Treasury 5.00% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR below Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
No edge Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by −2.5 pts (2,338 entries, 453 companies, unlikely to be luck). 42% of entries beat the S&P; 12% beat it by 30 points or more; 29% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −4.2 pts.
−2.5 ptsvs S&P, average
42%beat the S&P
12%up 30+ pts vs S&P
29%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+1.8 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−14.4 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
-3.0luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −1.0 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.9 pts 42% beat12 mo: −2.5 pts 43% beat24 mo: −6.5 pts 37% beat3 yr, per yr: −5.8 pts 31% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today2,081−2.7 pts t -3.3+1.5 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)257−0.2 pts t -0.1+3.9 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing890−4.3 pts t -3.3−7.4 pts
Tech hardware & semis201+7.2 pts t 1.7−5.7 pts
Services169−7.4 pts t -3.3−8.7 pts
Retail & consumer154+0.2 pts t 0.1−3.2 pts
Medical devices140−2.8 pts t -0.9−7.1 pts
Other130−0.7 pts t -0.3−1.6 pts
Software & IT services107−0.8 pts t -0.3+0.0 pts
Biotech & pharma94−0.8 pts t -0.2−5.1 pts
Finance & real estate92−3.5 pts t -1.2−2.6 pts
Energy75−9.2 pts t -2.2−12.9 pts
Food, drink & tobacco58−8.7 pts t -1.6−10.1 pts
Utilities54−4.0 pts t -1.1−4.9 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: −0.9 pts (n 837, t -0.8). From 2018: −3.4 pts (n 1,501, t -3.0). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P−4 pts+2 pts−1 pts−8 pts−2 pts+1 pts+6 pts+1 pts−11 pts+15 pts−10 pts+3 pts−12 pts−14 pts+4 pts
n32789182168173195216189183231183168185146

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

TRS
TRIMAS CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield2.5%
Growth used-1.5%
10-yr IRR-6.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.62
Market implies +13.0%/yr vs model -1.5% · above model
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield1.0%
Growth used12.9%
10-yr IRR-6.1%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.86
Market implies +9.3%/yr vs model +12.9% · below model
DOW
DOW INC.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield2.2%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-6.2%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.72
Market implies -9.1%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
WST
WEST PHARMACEUTICAL SERVICES INC
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 60 · High
Yield1.5%
Growth used5.7%
10-yr IRR-6.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.62
Market implies +18.4%/yr vs model +5.7% · above model
STLD
STEEL DYNAMICS INC
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 68 · High
Yield2.0%
Growth used1.3%
10-yr IRR-6.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.10
Market implies +17.3%/yr vs model +1.3% · above model
SHOP
SHOPIFY INC.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield0.9%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-6.4%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 4.82
Market implies +42.9%/yr vs model +21.7% · above model
BSET
BASSETT FURNITURE INDUSTRIES INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield2.0%
Growth used1.3%
10-yr IRR-6.5%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.21
Market implies +3.6%/yr vs model +1.3% · in line
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield1.0%
Growth used11.3%
10-yr IRR-6.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.08
Market implies +24.3%/yr vs model +11.3% · above model
RMNI
Rimini Street, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield1.5%
Growth used5.7%
10-yr IRR-6.8%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.75
Market implies +1.8%/yr vs model +5.7% · below model
LUMN
Lumen Technologies, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield2.6%
Growth used-3.3%
10-yr IRR-6.8%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +18.3%/yr vs model -3.3% · above model
POWI
POWER INTEGRATIONS INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield2.2%
Growth used-1.9%
10-yr IRR-7.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +33.0%/yr vs model -1.9% · above model
WMT
Walmart Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Yield1.3%
Growth used6.3%
10-yr IRR-7.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.75
Market implies +22.7%/yr vs model +6.3% · above model
ONTO
ONTO INNOVATION INC.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield1.6%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-7.6%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +30.8%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
CGNX
COGNEX CORP
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield1.4%
Growth used4.5%
10-yr IRR-7.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.70
Market implies +25.5%/yr vs model +4.5% · above model
CRS
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 28 · Moderate
Yield1.1%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-7.9%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +39.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
GE
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield1.5%
Growth used3.7%
10-yr IRR-8.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.99
Market implies +22.7%/yr vs model +3.7% · above model
UI
Ubiquiti Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield1.0%
Growth used10.2%
10-yr IRR-8.2%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 4.62
Market implies +30.9%/yr vs model +10.2% · above model
QXO
QXO, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 45 · Elevated
Yield1.2%
Growth used6.0%
10-yr IRR-8.5%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +111.9%/yr vs model +6.0% · above model
SXT
SENSIENT TECHNOLOGIES CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 64 · High
Yield1.3%
Growth used4.3%
10-yr IRR-8.7%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 4.48
Market implies +25.5%/yr vs model +4.3% · above model
MASI
MASIMO CORP
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield1.5%
Growth used2.6%
10-yr IRR-8.7%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 3.09
Market implies +16.8%/yr vs model +2.6% · above model
BEKE
KE Holdings Inc.
Below Treasuries
Real Estate Risk 67 · High
Yield1.4%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-8.8%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.95
Market implies +21.2%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
PSMT
PRICESMART INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield1.0%
Growth used8.9%
10-yr IRR-8.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.83
Market implies +15.1%/yr vs model +8.9% · above model
MOD
MODINE MANUFACTURING CO
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield1.0%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-8.9%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +43.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
ELSE
ELECTRO SENSORS INC
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield1.2%
Growth used5.9%
10-yr IRR-9.1%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.97
Market implies +9.8%/yr vs model +5.9% · above model
DJCO
DAILY JOURNAL CORP
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield1.0%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-9.1%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +50.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
BJRI
BJs RESTAURANTS INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield0.9%
Growth used9.4%
10-yr IRR-9.2%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.04
Market implies +20.1%/yr vs model +9.4% · above model
GEV
GE Vernova Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield0.8%
Growth used9.7%
10-yr IRR-10.3%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +32.7%/yr vs model +9.7% · above model
LRCX
LAM RESEARCH CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield1.2%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-10.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +27.3%/yr
MTRN
MATERION Corp
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield1.0%
Growth used4.8%
10-yr IRR-10.8%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 4.46
Market implies +27.3%/yr vs model +4.8% · above model
ESLT
ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield0.8%
Growth used9.3%
10-yr IRR-10.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.98
Market implies +19.2%/yr vs model +9.3% · above model
LEU
CENTRUS ENERGY CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield0.8%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-11.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +42.3%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
ASIX
AdvanSix Inc.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 48 · Elevated
Yield1.3%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-11.3%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.07
Market implies -6.8%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
CSGP
COSTAR GROUP, INC.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield0.8%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-11.3%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.84
Market implies +13.7%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
ADV
Advantage Solutions Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 67 · High
Yield1.1%
Growth used3.3%
10-yr IRR-11.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +43.8%/yr vs model +3.3% · above model
LEGH
Legacy Housing Corp
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 63 · High
Yield1.7%
Growth used-4.1%
10-yr IRR-11.7%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.75
Market implies +9.6%/yr vs model -4.1% · above model
KLIC
KULICKE & SOFFA INDUSTRIES INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 44 · Elevated
Yield1.8%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR-12.0%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +36.1%/yr vs model -5.7% · above model
CSTM
CONSTELLIUM SE
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 48 · Elevated
Yield1.0%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-12.1%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 3.31
Market implies +16.7%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
DK
Delek US Holdings, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Energy Risk 37 · Moderate
Yield1.0%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-12.4%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.79
Market implies +6.1%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
CVGW
CALAVO GROWERS INC
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield1.1%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-13.0%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 3.38
Market implies +11.6%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
GFI
GOLD FIELDS LTD
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 26 · Moderate
Yield0.7%
Growth used6.8%
10-yr IRR-13.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +34.0%/yr vs model +6.8% · above model
VICR
VICOR CORP
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 32 · Moderate
Yield0.7%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR-14.0%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +40.4%/yr vs model +5.8% · above model
GME
GameStop Corp.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 66 · High
Yield1.4%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR-14.1%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.86
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model -5.9% · above model
TSM
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield0.8%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-14.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +27.1%/yr
WPM
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield0.6%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-14.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +45.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
CSBR
CHAMPIONS ONCOLOGY, INC.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 28 · Moderate
Yield0.5%
Growth used9.5%
10-yr IRR-14.6%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.51
Market implies -4.6%/yr vs model +9.5% · below model
HOUR
Hour Loop, Inc
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield0.4%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-14.8%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.13
Market implies +13.8%/yr vs model +18.3% · below model
OSIS
OSI SYSTEMS INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 68 · High
Yield0.4%
Growth used12.7%
10-yr IRR-14.9%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 4.81
Market implies +31.7%/yr vs model +12.7% · above model
FCX
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield0.7%
Growth used3.7%
10-yr IRR-15.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +36.8%/yr vs model +3.7% · above model
AVT
AVNET INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield0.5%
Growth used7.4%
10-yr IRR-16.0%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.92
Market implies +6.8%/yr vs model +7.4% · in line
MTH
Meritage Homes CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 46 · Elevated
Yield1.1%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR-16.4%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +25.1%/yr vs model -10.0% · above model
MRCY
MERCURY SYSTEMS INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield0.6%
Growth used3.4%
10-yr IRR-16.8%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +29.2%/yr vs model +3.4% · above model
DD
DuPont de Nemours, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 60 · High
Yield0.7%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-17.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +38.2%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
YMM
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield0.3%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-17.6%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +49.9%/yr vs model +21.1% · above model
ATI
ATI INC
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield0.5%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR-17.8%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +48.0%/yr vs model +5.8% · above model
AN
AUTONATION, INC.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield0.4%
Growth used3.6%
10-yr IRR-19.3%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.16
Market implies +6.9%/yr vs model +3.6% · above model
SMTC
SEMTECH CORP
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield0.2%
Growth used10.0%
10-yr IRR-21.6%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +46.7%/yr vs model +10.0% · above model
JOYY
JOYY Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield0.2%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR-22.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +49.8%/yr vs model +7.0% · above model
HLP
Hongli Group Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 28 · Moderate
Yield0.3%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-22.9%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +30.1%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield0.2%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-23.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +58.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
ASYS
AMTECH SYSTEMS INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield0.2%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-26.0%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +24.6%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model