← All verdicts
Verdict

Deep Overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Deep Overvalued — 1,218 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Deep Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Deep Overvalued" here means IRR more than 3 points under Treasuries (10-yr Treasury 5.00% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR below Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
No edge Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by −2.5 pts (2,338 entries, 453 companies, unlikely to be luck). 42% of entries beat the S&P; 12% beat it by 30 points or more; 29% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −4.2 pts.
−2.5 ptsvs S&P, average
42%beat the S&P
12%up 30+ pts vs S&P
29%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+1.8 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−14.4 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
-3.0luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −1.0 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.9 pts 42% beat12 mo: −2.5 pts 43% beat24 mo: −6.5 pts 37% beat3 yr, per yr: −5.8 pts 31% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today2,081−2.7 pts t -3.3+1.5 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)257−0.2 pts t -0.1+3.9 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing890−4.3 pts t -3.3−7.4 pts
Tech hardware & semis201+7.2 pts t 1.7−5.7 pts
Services169−7.4 pts t -3.3−8.7 pts
Retail & consumer154+0.2 pts t 0.1−3.2 pts
Medical devices140−2.8 pts t -0.9−7.1 pts
Other130−0.7 pts t -0.3−1.6 pts
Software & IT services107−0.8 pts t -0.3+0.0 pts
Biotech & pharma94−0.8 pts t -0.2−5.1 pts
Finance & real estate92−3.5 pts t -1.2−2.6 pts
Energy75−9.2 pts t -2.2−12.9 pts
Food, drink & tobacco58−8.7 pts t -1.6−10.1 pts
Utilities54−4.0 pts t -1.1−4.9 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: −0.9 pts (n 837, t -0.8). From 2018: −3.4 pts (n 1,501, t -3.0). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P−4 pts+2 pts−1 pts−8 pts−2 pts+1 pts+6 pts+1 pts−11 pts+15 pts−10 pts+3 pts−12 pts−14 pts+4 pts
n32789182168173195216189183231183168185146

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

PN
Skycorp Solar Group Ltd
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield2.1%
Growth used9.9%
10-yr IRR0.2%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.70
Market implies +6.8%/yr vs model +9.9% · below model
ESI
Element Solutions Inc
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 60 · High
Yield3.2%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR0.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.38
Market implies +21.8%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
SNDR
Schneider National, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield3.2%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR0.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.97
Market implies +17.5%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
SMID
SMITH MIDLAND CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 60 · High
Yield1.7%
Growth used13.4%
10-yr IRR0.1%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.08
Market implies +14.6%/yr vs model +13.4% · in line
LFUS
LITTELFUSE INC /DE
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield3.2%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR0.1%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.46
Market implies +19.8%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
RDWR
RADWARE LTD
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield2.6%
Growth used6.0%
10-yr IRR0.1%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 4.66
Market implies +23.8%/yr vs model +6.0% · above model
CARR
CARRIER GLOBAL Corp
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield3.0%
Growth used3.8%
10-yr IRR0.0%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.06
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +3.8% · above model
PFGC
Performance Food Group Co
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 61 · High
Yield1.6%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-0.1%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.57
Market implies +23.0%/yr vs model +22.9% · in line
RIO
RIO TINTO PLC
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield3.8%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-0.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.07
Market implies +8.5%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
LPX
LOUISIANA-PACIFIC CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield3.8%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-0.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.96
Market implies +6.0%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
HXL
HEXCEL CORP /DE/
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 61 · High
Yield2.3%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-0.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.68
Market implies +20.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
A
AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 62 · High
Yield2.8%
Growth used4.7%
10-yr IRR-0.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.36
Market implies +15.5%/yr vs model +4.7% · above model
XNET
Xunlei Ltd
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 33 · Moderate
Yield1.5%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-0.1%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +34.3%/yr vs model +17.6% · above model
ITGR
Integer Holdings Corp
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 49 · Elevated
Yield2.0%
Growth used10.7%
10-yr IRR-0.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.35
Market implies +16.8%/yr vs model +10.7% · above model
IDT
IDT CORP
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 46 · Elevated
Yield3.7%
Growth used0.4%
10-yr IRR-0.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.21
Market implies +5.1%/yr vs model +0.4% · above model
CDNS
CADENCE DESIGN SYSTEMS INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 60 · High
Yield1.7%
Growth used13.5%
10-yr IRR-0.2%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 4.88
Market implies +29.8%/yr vs model +13.5% · above model
JFU
9F Inc.
Below Treasuries
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield2.3%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-0.3%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.54
Market implies +9.8%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
NBR
NABORS INDUSTRIES LTD
Below Treasuries
Energy Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield2.3%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-0.4%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.38
Market implies -9.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
NWSA
NEWS CORP
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 48 · Elevated
Yield3.1%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-0.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.47
Market implies +9.2%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
RRR
Red Rock Resorts, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High
Yield2.1%
Growth used9.4%
10-yr IRR-0.4%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.05
Market implies +7.7%/yr vs model +9.4% · in line
PWR
QUANTA SERVICES, INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield1.5%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-0.4%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.04
Market implies +27.0%/yr vs model +17.0% · above model
JHX
James Hardie Industries plc
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield2.4%
Growth used7.1%
10-yr IRR-0.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +34.2%/yr vs model +7.1% · above model
FTNT
Fortinet, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 60 · High
Yield1.5%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-0.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.62
Market implies +24.3%/yr vs model +19.4% · above model
ETN
Eaton Corp plc
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield2.2%
Growth used8.6%
10-yr IRR-0.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.93
Market implies +22.0%/yr vs model +8.6% · above model
CAKE
CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield2.1%
Growth used9.0%
10-yr IRR-0.6%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.28
Market implies +16.7%/yr vs model +9.0% · above model
AMKR
AMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield2.6%
Growth used5.2%
10-yr IRR-0.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +27.5%/yr vs model +5.2% · above model
FIVE
FIVE BELOW, INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 49 · Elevated
Yield1.7%
Growth used12.0%
10-yr IRR-0.7%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.87
Market implies +19.0%/yr vs model +12.0% · above model
FORR
FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield4.0%
Growth used-1.9%
10-yr IRR-0.7%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.60
Market implies +13.1%/yr vs model -1.9% · above model
AMAT
APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield1.9%
Growth used10.5%
10-yr IRR-0.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +36.0%/yr vs model +10.5% · above model
ULS
UL Solutions Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 61 · High
Yield2.4%
Growth used6.4%
10-yr IRR-0.9%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.22
Market implies +15.3%/yr vs model +6.4% · above model
HUN
Huntsman CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield3.5%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-0.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.04
Market implies +8.3%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
AAPL
Apple Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 65 · High
Yield2.1%
Growth used8.8%
10-yr IRR-1.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.71
Market implies +21.9%/yr vs model +8.8% · above model
ROK
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, INC
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield2.3%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR-1.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.65
Market implies +18.3%/yr vs model +7.0% · above model
GOOG
Alphabet Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield1.7%
Growth used11.9%
10-yr IRR-1.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.72
Market implies +30.0%/yr vs model +11.9% · above model
MYRG
MYR GROUP INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield1.8%
Growth used11.0%
10-yr IRR-1.1%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.18
Market implies +12.4%/yr vs model +11.0% · in line
UNF
UNIFIRST CORP
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield2.1%
Growth used8.2%
10-yr IRR-1.1%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.53
Market implies +12.5%/yr vs model +8.2% · above model
MKSI
MKS INC
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 61 · High
Yield2.1%
Growth used8.2%
10-yr IRR-1.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.56
Market implies +27.0%/yr vs model +8.2% · above model
HEI
HEICO CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 60 · High
Yield1.4%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-1.2%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.92
Market implies +22.3%/yr vs model +19.0% · above model
IP
INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield2.5%
Growth used5.1%
10-yr IRR-1.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.34
Market implies +8.5%/yr vs model +5.1% · above model
NVT
nVent Electric plc
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 64 · High
Yield1.8%
Growth used11.1%
10-yr IRR-1.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.85
Market implies +27.9%/yr vs model +11.1% · above model
MLM
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield2.7%
Growth used3.8%
10-yr IRR-1.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.00
Market implies +16.1%/yr vs model +3.8% · above model
ARMK
Aramark
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield1.8%
Growth used10.3%
10-yr IRR-1.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.67
Market implies +16.2%/yr vs model +10.3% · above model
IFF
INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 61 · High
Yield2.8%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-1.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.36
Market implies +15.5%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
BWXT
BWX Technologies, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 67 · High
Yield1.8%
Growth used10.1%
10-yr IRR-1.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.73
Market implies +27.0%/yr vs model +10.1% · above model
ECG
Everus Construction Group, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield1.9%
Growth used9.9%
10-yr IRR-1.4%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +32.6%/yr vs model +9.9% · above model
VRT
Vertiv Holdings Co
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield1.4%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-1.4%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 4.18
Market implies +31.4%/yr vs model +17.3% · above model
WWD
Woodward, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 61 · High
Yield1.5%
Growth used13.8%
10-yr IRR-1.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.27
Market implies +27.0%/yr vs model +13.8% · above model
BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield1.8%
Growth used10.1%
10-yr IRR-1.5%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.81
Market implies +20.4%/yr vs model +10.1% · above model
TANH
TANTECH HOLDINGS LTD
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield3.3%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-1.5%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies -0.8%/yr vs model +0.0% · in line
RTX
RTX Corp
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield2.1%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR-1.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.56
Market implies +10.8%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
TECH
BIO-TECHNE Corp
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield2.0%
Growth used7.9%
10-yr IRR-1.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.46
Market implies +23.8%/yr vs model +7.9% · above model
CTAS
CINTAS CORP
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 63 · High
Yield1.9%
Growth used9.3%
10-yr IRR-1.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.52
Market implies +15.5%/yr vs model +9.3% · above model
ANET
Arista Networks, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 60 · High
Yield1.4%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-1.7%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.57
Market implies +32.6%/yr vs model +20.0% · above model
CODA
Coda Octopus Group, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield2.3%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR-1.7%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.96
Market implies +9.8%/yr vs model +5.8% · above model
MIR
Mirion Technologies, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield1.7%
Growth used10.6%
10-yr IRR-1.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +33.9%/yr vs model +10.6% · above model
CHRW
C. H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield3.6%
Growth used-1.7%
10-yr IRR-1.8%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.77
Market implies +8.5%/yr vs model -1.7% · above model
ECL
ECOLAB INC.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield2.3%
Growth used5.7%
10-yr IRR-1.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.75
Market implies +12.8%/yr vs model +5.7% · above model
NWS
NEWS CORP
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 60 · High
Yield2.7%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-2.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.71
Market implies +11.3%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
REX
REX AMERICAN RESOURCES Corp
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 65 · High
Yield3.2%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-2.0%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.38
Market implies +5.5%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
WAT
WATERS CORP /DE/
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 60 · High
Yield2.2%
Growth used6.2%
10-yr IRR-2.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.50
Market implies +18.4%/yr vs model +6.2% · above model