← All verdicts
Verdict

Deep Overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Deep Overvalued — 1,218 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Deep Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Deep Overvalued" here means IRR more than 3 points under Treasuries (10-yr Treasury 5.00% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR below Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
No edge Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by −2.5 pts (2,338 entries, 453 companies, unlikely to be luck). 42% of entries beat the S&P; 12% beat it by 30 points or more; 29% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −4.2 pts.
−2.5 ptsvs S&P, average
42%beat the S&P
12%up 30+ pts vs S&P
29%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+1.8 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−14.4 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
-3.0luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −1.0 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.9 pts 42% beat12 mo: −2.5 pts 43% beat24 mo: −6.5 pts 37% beat3 yr, per yr: −5.8 pts 31% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today2,081−2.7 pts t -3.3+1.5 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)257−0.2 pts t -0.1+3.9 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing890−4.3 pts t -3.3−7.4 pts
Tech hardware & semis201+7.2 pts t 1.7−5.7 pts
Services169−7.4 pts t -3.3−8.7 pts
Retail & consumer154+0.2 pts t 0.1−3.2 pts
Medical devices140−2.8 pts t -0.9−7.1 pts
Other130−0.7 pts t -0.3−1.6 pts
Software & IT services107−0.8 pts t -0.3+0.0 pts
Biotech & pharma94−0.8 pts t -0.2−5.1 pts
Finance & real estate92−3.5 pts t -1.2−2.6 pts
Energy75−9.2 pts t -2.2−12.9 pts
Food, drink & tobacco58−8.7 pts t -1.6−10.1 pts
Utilities54−4.0 pts t -1.1−4.9 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: −0.9 pts (n 837, t -0.8). From 2018: −3.4 pts (n 1,501, t -3.0). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P−4 pts+2 pts−1 pts−8 pts−2 pts+1 pts+6 pts+1 pts−11 pts+15 pts−10 pts+3 pts−12 pts−14 pts+4 pts
n32789182168173195216189183231183168185146

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

UCL
uCloudlink Group Inc.
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 32 · Moderate
Yield2.5%
Growth used4.1%
10-yr IRR-2.1%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +18.4%/yr vs model +4.1% · above model
EXPD
EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 62 · High
Yield3.4%
Growth used-0.9%
10-yr IRR-2.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.21
Market implies +9.8%/yr vs model -0.9% · above model
FIX
COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield1.3%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-2.1%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.67
Market implies +32.6%/yr vs model +24.4% · above model
MCHP
MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield3.5%
Growth used-1.7%
10-yr IRR-2.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +19.8%/yr vs model -1.7% · above model
HLIT
HARMONIC INC.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield3.6%
Growth used-2.1%
10-yr IRR-2.2%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 4.10
Market implies +13.5%/yr vs model -2.1% · above model
IRMD
IRADIMED CORP
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield1.3%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-2.2%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.43
Market implies +22.0%/yr vs model +16.3% · above model
DKL
Delek Logistics Partners, LP
Below Treasuries
Energy Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield1.9%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-2.2%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.98
Market implies +8.1%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
VAC
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE Corp
Below Treasuries
Real Estate Risk 62 · High
Yield2.2%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR-2.2%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.43
Market implies +12.7%/yr vs model +5.8% · above model
IPI
Intrepid Potash, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield2.5%
Growth used3.9%
10-yr IRR-2.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.76
Market implies -1.3%/yr vs model +3.9% · below model
EL
ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield2.7%
Growth used2.6%
10-yr IRR-2.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +34.3%/yr vs model +2.6% · above model
FAST
FASTENAL CO
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 66 · High
Yield1.9%
Growth used8.1%
10-yr IRR-2.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.09
Market implies +18.0%/yr vs model +8.1% · above model
FMC
FMC CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 26 · Moderate
Yield3.1%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-2.3%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.45
Market implies -20.3%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
KEYS
Keysight Technologies, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 65 · High
Yield2.1%
Growth used6.4%
10-yr IRR-2.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.03
Market implies +24.4%/yr vs model +6.4% · above model
NSC
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield2.2%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR-2.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.40
Market implies +9.7%/yr vs model +5.8% · above model
SN
SharkNinja, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield1.3%
Growth used13.7%
10-yr IRR-2.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.28
Market implies +27.6%/yr vs model +13.7% · above model
ROG
ROGERS CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 60 · High
Yield3.0%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-2.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.12
Market implies +17.2%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
ISSC
INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 60 · High
Yield1.2%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-2.7%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.26
Market implies +39.7%/yr vs model +25.0% · above model
CSCO
CISCO SYSTEMS, INC.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield1.9%
Growth used7.3%
10-yr IRR-2.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.79
Market implies +20.7%/yr vs model +7.3% · above model
SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A.
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 46 · Elevated
Yield1.6%
Growth used10.5%
10-yr IRR-2.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.94
Market implies +17.1%/yr vs model +10.5% · above model
B
BARRICK MINING CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 61 · High
Yield1.8%
Growth used7.8%
10-yr IRR-3.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.35
Market implies +27.0%/yr vs model +7.8% · above model
VRTX
VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC / MA
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 64 · High
Yield1.4%
Growth used11.5%
10-yr IRR-3.2%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.57
Market implies +16.9%/yr vs model +11.5% · above model
MSGS
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 65 · High
Yield1.2%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-3.2%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.70
Market implies +29.4%/yr vs model +20.4% · above model
BX
Blackstone Inc.
Below Treasuries
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield3.9%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR-3.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.56
Market implies +18.0%/yr vs model -5.0% · above model
DIOD
DIODES INC /DEL/
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield2.4%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-3.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +26.7%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
NUE
NUCOR CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 60 · High
Yield2.9%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-3.4%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.72
Market implies +6.0%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
ELAN
Elanco Animal Health Inc
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield2.3%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-3.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.76
Market implies +24.4%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
ODFL
OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 60 · High
Yield2.3%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-3.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.31
Market implies +19.3%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
DRS
Leonardo DRS, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 49 · Elevated
Yield1.9%
Growth used6.1%
10-yr IRR-3.6%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 4.17
Market implies +20.5%/yr vs model +6.1% · above model
TEVA
TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LTD
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield2.1%
Growth used4.5%
10-yr IRR-3.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.51
Market implies +16.9%/yr vs model +4.5% · above model
LIN
LINDE PLC
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 62 · High
Yield2.3%
Growth used3.3%
10-yr IRR-3.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.67
Market implies +16.0%/yr vs model +3.3% · above model
ASML
ASML HOLDING NV
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield1.4%
Growth used11.5%
10-yr IRR-3.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.92
Market implies +28.6%/yr vs model +11.5% · above model
RVTY
REVVITY, INC.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 63 · High
Yield2.4%
Growth used2.0%
10-yr IRR-3.7%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.43
Market implies +17.0%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
SCCO
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP/
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 64 · High
Yield2.0%
Growth used5.2%
10-yr IRR-3.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 5.15
Market implies +29.1%/yr vs model +5.2% · above model
NOAH
NOAH HOLDINGS LTD
Below Treasuries
Financial Services Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield3.8%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR-3.7%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +11.9%/yr vs model -7.2% · above model
NVDA
NVIDIA CORP
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield1.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-4.0%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.62
Market implies +29.3%/yr vs model +20.0% · above model
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield1.7%
Growth used7.4%
10-yr IRR-4.0%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.50
Market implies +25.0%/yr vs model +7.4% · above model
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield1.6%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR-4.0%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +68.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
SXI
STANDEX INTERNATIONAL CORP/DE/
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield1.9%
Growth used5.1%
10-yr IRR-4.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +29.3%/yr vs model +5.1% · above model
COST
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield1.6%
Growth used8.6%
10-yr IRR-4.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.48
Market implies +18.9%/yr vs model +8.6% · above model
MAMA
Mama's Creations, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield1.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-4.2%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 4.21
Market implies +33.7%/yr vs model +19.8% · above model
KLAC
KLA CORP
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield1.4%
Growth used10.7%
10-yr IRR-4.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +36.6%/yr vs model +10.7% · above model
NEM
NEWMONT Corp /DE/
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield2.5%
Growth used0.9%
10-yr IRR-4.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +33.4%/yr vs model +0.9% · above model
MOS
MOSAIC CO
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 33 · Moderate
Yield2.2%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-4.4%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.48
Market implies -6.3%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
NL
NL INDUSTRIES INC
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 62 · High
Yield2.1%
Growth used3.6%
10-yr IRR-4.5%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.21
Market implies +4.6%/yr vs model +3.6% · in line
TM
TOYOTA MOTOR CORP/
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Yield2.6%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-4.6%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.18
Market implies +15.6%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
ISRG
INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield1.1%
Growth used13.7%
10-yr IRR-4.6%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.13
Market implies +24.3%/yr vs model +13.7% · above model
EME
EMCOR Group, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield1.6%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR-4.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.34
Market implies +16.0%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
JBHT
HUNT J B TRANSPORT SERVICES INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield1.8%
Growth used5.2%
10-yr IRR-4.7%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.83
Market implies +12.2%/yr vs model +5.2% · above model
DELL
Dell Technologies Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield1.4%
Growth used9.2%
10-yr IRR-4.9%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.81
Market implies +27.2%/yr vs model +9.2% · above model
DDOG
Datadog, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield1.0%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR-5.0%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +50.9%/yr vs model +25.0% · above model
NTES
NetEase, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 60 · High
Yield1.5%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR-5.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.88
Market implies +19.4%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
EW
Edwards Lifesciences Corp
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield1.5%
Growth used7.5%
10-yr IRR-5.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.70
Market implies +12.6%/yr vs model +7.5% · above model
TX
Ternium S.A.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 27 · Moderate
Yield2.3%
Growth used1.0%
10-yr IRR-5.2%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.10
Market implies +1.8%/yr vs model +1.0% · in line
ENTG
ENTEGRIS INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 44 · Elevated
Yield1.4%
Growth used8.4%
10-yr IRR-5.4%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +35.6%/yr vs model +8.4% · above model
TREX
TREX CO INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield1.9%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR-5.6%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.93
Market implies +23.1%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
KO
COCA COLA CO
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield1.7%
Growth used5.4%
10-yr IRR-5.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.85
Market implies +18.2%/yr vs model +5.4% · above model
MT
ArcelorMittal
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield2.3%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR-5.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.40
Market implies +12.1%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
BDL
FLANIGANS ENTERPRISES INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 30 · Moderate
Yield1.3%
Growth used9.8%
10-yr IRR-5.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.59
Market implies +2.6%/yr vs model +9.8% · below model
PAHC
PHIBRO ANIMAL HEALTH CORP
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield1.1%
Growth used11.2%
10-yr IRR-5.8%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.52
Market implies +15.5%/yr vs model +11.2% · above model
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield1.6%
Growth used5.4%
10-yr IRR-5.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.68
Market implies +19.0%/yr vs model +5.4% · above model