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Verdict

Deep Overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Deep Overvalued — 1,218 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Deep Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: price against our probability-weighted DCF value (P/IV). Its own forward record began accruing on 2026-09-10 (daily snapshots); until a year of it exists, the panel below tests the nearest cousin we can measure point-in-time — cheap on book value — and says so.

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Proxy: price-to-book ≤ 1.2 (undervalued band has no point-in-time history yet) · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Probable Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +12.6 pts (1,427 entries, 311 companies, very unlikely to be luck). 50% of entries beat the S&P; 25% beat it by 30 points or more; 30% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is +10.9 pts.
+12.6 ptsvs S&P, average
50%beat the S&P
25%up 30+ pts vs S&P
30%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+14.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−15.1 pts 2019worst year to buy ?
6.1luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: +2.3 pts 49% beat6 mo: +4.6 pts 49% beat12 mo: +12.6 pts 50% beat24 mo: +21.8 pts 46% beat3 yr, per yr: +1.3 pts 40% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today1,245+7.9 pts t 4.6+10.1 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)182+44.5 pts t 4.0+40.7 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing466+13.0 pts t 4.0−2.2 pts
Energy126+7.4 pts t 1.2−7.8 pts
Other115+8.4 pts t 1.8+3.8 pts
Tech hardware & semis113+10.9 pts t 1.6+2.3 pts
Services96+11.9 pts t 2.7+12.2 pts
Retail & consumer87+17.2 pts t 2.1+10.2 pts
Finance & real estate72−1.7 pts t -0.5−2.4 pts
Utilities65+5.6 pts t 0.6−1.2 pts
Construction53+13.2 pts t 1.7−2.4 pts
Biotech & pharma44+47.1 pts t 1.6+10.0 pts
Telecom & media43+14.0 pts t 0.7−6.3 pts
Software & IT services35+39.9 pts t 1.8+1.2 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +10.7 pts (n 629, t 6.0). From 2018: +14.0 pts (n 798, t 4.1). Same sign in both halves.

Year2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+13 pts+5 pts+14 pts+18 pts−4 pts−4 pts+22 pts+12 pts−3 pts−15 pts+87 pts+8 pts+17 pts−9 pts−7 pts+15 pts
n254310610178841118178991297276108121115

Read the research behind this screen: Price-to-book still sorts, across all sizes → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Our model values are recomputed daily but were never stored historically, so this band cannot be backtested honestly yet. Daily snapshots began 2026-09-10; a true record accrues from there. Until then the nearest tested cousin is shown — cheap on book value — and labelled as a proxy. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
FND
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High
Price$47.34
Model IV$17.94
P/IV2.86
Premium +164% Return to IV: -62.1%
Market implies +21.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
FORR
FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$11.75
Model IV$2.71
P/IV2.60
Premium +333% Return to IV: -76.9%
Market implies +13.1%/yr vs model -1.9% · above model
FR
FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST INC
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 73 · High
Price$61.38
Model IV$37.72
P/IV1.64
Premium +63% Return to IV: -38.5%
FRMI
Fermi Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 70 · High
Price$4.74
Model IV$1.63
P/IV4.29
Premium +191% Return to IV: -65.6%
FROG
JFrog Ltd
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$87.18
Model IV$19.05
P/IV1.34
Premium +358% Return to IV: -78.1%
Market implies +21.6%/yr vs model +26.7% · below model
FRT
FEDERAL REALTY INVESTMENT TRUST
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 73 · High
Price$114.36
Model IV$65.33
P/IV1.83
Premium +75% Return to IV: -42.9%
FSEA
First Seacoast Bancorp, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 68 · High
Price$17.17
Model IV$9.55
P/IV1.75
Premium +80% Return to IV: -44.4%
FSI
FLEXIBLE SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONAL INC
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 60 · High
Price$5.80
Model IV$1.49
P/IV4.47
Premium +290% Return to IV: -74.4%
Market implies +19.6%/yr vs model +3.5% · above model
FSLR
FIRST SOLAR, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$209.03
Model IV$231.96
P/IV1.32
Discount 10% Return to IV: +11.0%
Market implies +9.9%/yr vs model +14.5% · below model
FSLY
Fastly, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 60 · High
Price$23.16
Model IV$12.65
P/IV1.40
Premium +83% Return to IV: -45.4%
Market implies +6.3%/yr vs model +15.2% · below model
FSP
FRANKLIN STREET PROPERTIES CORP /MA/
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 64 · High
Price$0.35
Model IV$0.35
P/IV1.51
Discount 1% Return to IV: +0.8%
FSS
FEDERAL SIGNAL CORP /DE/
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$113.98
Model IV$39.83
P/IV2.68
Premium +186% Return to IV: -65.1%
Market implies +21.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
FSTR
FOSTER L B CO
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 63 · High
Price$37.25
Model IV$19.82
P/IV2.08
Premium +88% Return to IV: -46.8%
Market implies +10.5%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
FTAI
FTAI Aviation Ltd.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 73 · High
Price$186.06
Model IV$129.16
P/IV2.02
Premium +44% Return to IV: -30.6%
Market implies +11.3%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
FTCI
FTC Solar, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$2.30
Model IV$1.57
P/IV3.50
Premium +46% Return to IV: -31.6%
Market implies +10.0%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
FTEK
FUEL TECH, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$1.73
Model IV$0.57
P/IV2.60
Premium +204% Return to IV: -67.1%
Market implies +14.6%/yr vs model +3.5% · above model
FTFT
Future FinTech Group Inc.
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 60 · High
Price$5.74
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +44.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
FTNT
Fortinet, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 60 · High
Price$170.18
Model IV$85.25
P/IV1.62
Premium +100% Return to IV: -49.9%
Market implies +24.3%/yr vs model +19.4% · above model
FTRK
Fast Track Group
Deeply overvalued
Communication Services Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$1.30
Model IV$0.27
P/IV1.78
Premium +381% Return to IV: -79.2%
Market implies +24.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
FTS
Fortis Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Utilities Risk 61 · High
Price$54.37
Model IV$39.96
P/IV1.38
Premium +36% Return to IV: -26.5%
FUFU
Bitfufu Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$1.29
Model IV$2.72
P/IV2.00
Discount 53% Return to IV: +111.2%
Market implies -6.4%/yr vs model +41.6% · below model
FUL
FULLER H B CO
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 68 · High
Price$50.97
Model IV$29.02
P/IV2.21
Premium +76% Return to IV: -43.1%
Market implies +10.6%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
FUSE
Fusemachines Inc.
Fairly valued
Technology Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$0.60
Model IV$0.63
P/IV2.27
Discount 4% Return to IV: +4.5%
Market implies -7.4%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model
FUTU
Futu Holdings Ltd
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$112.73
Model IV$58.34
P/IV1.78
Premium +93% Return to IV: -48.2%
Market implies +28.6%/yr vs model +24.1% · above model
FVCB
FVCBankcorp, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$18.45
Model IV$11.95
P/IV1.32
Premium +54% Return to IV: -35.2%
FVR
FrontView REIT, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$18.24
Model IV$7.89
P/IV2.25
Premium +131% Return to IV: -56.8%
FXNC
FIRST NATIONAL CORP /VA/
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 60 · High
Price$31.06
Model IV$18.01
P/IV1.54
Premium +72% Return to IV: -42.0%
GBCI
GLACIER BANCORP, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$45.75
Model IV$29.30
P/IV1.62
Premium +56% Return to IV: -36.0%
GBFH
GBank Financial Holdings Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 64 · High
Price$20.14
Model IV$14.62
P/IV2.04
Premium +38% Return to IV: -27.4%
GBX
GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 72 · High
Price$43.09
Model IV$15.98
P/IV2.95
Premium +170% Return to IV: -62.9%
Market implies +18.8%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$12.84
Model IV$5.86
P/IV1.81
Premium +119% Return to IV: -54.4%
Market implies +13.6%/yr vs model +3.2% · above model
GE
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$323.66
Model IV$81.24
P/IV3.99
Premium +298% Return to IV: -74.9%
Market implies +22.7%/yr vs model +3.7% · above model
GEG
Great Elm Group, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 60 · High
Price$2.18
Model IV$0.53
P/IV4.08
Premium +314% Return to IV: -75.8%
Market implies +12.9%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
GEHC
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$63.93
Model IV$47.44
P/IV1.31
Premium +35% Return to IV: -25.8%
Market implies +9.0%/yr vs model +5.9% · above model
GEMI
Gemini Space Station, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 63 · High
Price$4.46
Model IV$3.39
P/IV1.55
Premium +32% Return to IV: -24.0%
Market implies +8.8%/yr vs model +35.3% · below model
GEO
GEO GROUP INC
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 64 · High
Price$31.49
Model IV$14.48
P/IV1.57
Premium +117% Return to IV: -54.0%
Market implies +9.9%/yr vs model +3.9% · above model
GEOS
GEOSPACE TECHNOLOGIES CORP
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 67 · High
Price$5.10
Model IV$3.53
P/IV2.35
Premium +45% Return to IV: -30.8%
Market implies +6.4%/yr vs model +9.9% · below model
GH
Guardant Health, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 69 · High
Price$157.38
Model IV$27.95
P/IV4.64
Premium +463% Return to IV: -82.2%
Market implies +19.7%/yr vs model +27.3% · below model
GHM
GRAHAM CORP
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 67 · High
Price$87.90
Model IV$21.26
P/IV4.71
Premium +313% Return to IV: -75.8%
Market implies +25.1%/yr vs model +21.1% · above model
GIGM
GIGAMEDIA Ltd
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$1.37
Model IV$0.43
P/IV3.46
Premium +220% Return to IV: -68.8%
Market implies +6.4%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
GIPR
GENERATION INCOME PROPERTIES, INC.
Valuation N/A
Financial Services Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$0.40
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
GLE
Global Engine Group Holding Ltd
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 61 · High
Price$0.55
Model IV$0.23
P/IV1.94
Premium +144% Return to IV: -59.1%
Market implies +8.6%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
GLL
ProShares Trust II
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 65 · High
Price$22.79
Model IV$12.62
P/IV1.69
Premium +81% Return to IV: -44.6%
GLTR
abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$194.33
Model IV$160.80
P/IV1.33
Premium +21% Return to IV: -17.3%
GME
GameStop Corp.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 66 · High
Price$21.15
Model IV$7.41
P/IV2.86
Premium +185% Return to IV: -65.0%
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model -5.9% · above model
GMHS
Gamehaus Holdings Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$0.75
Model IV$0.37
P/IV2.71
Premium +106% Return to IV: -51.6%
Market implies +1.6%/yr vs model -3.8% · above model
GNSS
Genasys Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$1.56
Model IV$0.67
P/IV3.20
Premium +132% Return to IV: -57.0%
Market implies +9.4%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
GOLF
Acushnet Holdings Corp.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 69 · High
Price$85.16
Model IV$55.70
P/IV1.59
Premium +53% Return to IV: -34.6%
Market implies +13.7%/yr vs model +9.5% · above model
GOOG
Alphabet Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$345.71
Model IV$79.81
P/IV4.72
Premium +333% Return to IV: -76.9%
Market implies +30.0%/yr vs model +11.9% · above model
GORO
GOLD RESOURCE CORP
Valuation N/A
Basic Materials Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$3.60
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +26.9%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
GOSS
Gossamer Bio, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Healthcare Risk 60 · High
Price$10.70
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +79.5%/yr vs model +15.0% · above model
GPRE
Green Plains Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$14.90
Model IV$6.38
P/IV2.46
Premium +134% Return to IV: -57.2%
Market implies +16.7%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
GPUS
Hyperscale Data, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 61 · High
Price$0.19
Model IV$0.05
P/IV3.28
Premium +259% Return to IV: -72.1%
Market implies +18.8%/yr vs model +18.2% · in line
GRAN
Grande Group Ltd/HK
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 48 · Elevated
Price$1.04
Model IV$0.68
P/IV1.54
Premium +52% Return to IV: -34.4%
Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model +6.5% · in line
GRMN
GARMIN LTD
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$282.67
Model IV$104.43
P/IV2.24
Premium +171% Return to IV: -63.1%
Market implies +21.2%/yr vs model +8.7% · above model
GRWG
GrowGeneration Corp.
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 45 · Elevated
Price$1.55
Model IV$1.35
P/IV1.32
Premium +15% Return to IV: -12.8%
Market implies -1.2%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model
GTES
Gates Industrial Corp plc
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$26.04
Model IV$18.60
P/IV1.36
Premium +40% Return to IV: -28.6%
Market implies +10.1%/yr vs model +6.2% · above model
GTX
Garrett Motion Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 62 · High
Price$27.62
Model IV$16.94
P/IV1.93
Premium +63% Return to IV: -38.7%
Market implies +9.8%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
GURE
GULF RESOURCES, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$3.65
Model IV$3.29
P/IV1.58
Premium +11% Return to IV: -10.0%
Market implies -5.3%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
GV
Visionary Holdings Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Defensive Risk 31 · Moderate
Price$0.01
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -37.5%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model