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Verdict

Deep Overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Deep Overvalued — 1,218 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Deep Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: price against our probability-weighted DCF value (P/IV). Its own forward record began accruing on 2026-09-10 (daily snapshots); until a year of it exists, the panel below tests the nearest cousin we can measure point-in-time — cheap on book value — and says so.

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Proxy: price-to-book ≤ 1.2 (undervalued band has no point-in-time history yet) · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Probable Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +12.6 pts (1,427 entries, 311 companies, very unlikely to be luck). 50% of entries beat the S&P; 25% beat it by 30 points or more; 30% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is +10.9 pts.
+12.6 ptsvs S&P, average
50%beat the S&P
25%up 30+ pts vs S&P
30%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+14.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−15.1 pts 2019worst year to buy ?
6.1luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: +2.3 pts 49% beat6 mo: +4.6 pts 49% beat12 mo: +12.6 pts 50% beat24 mo: +21.8 pts 46% beat3 yr, per yr: +1.3 pts 40% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today1,245+7.9 pts t 4.6+10.1 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)182+44.5 pts t 4.0+40.7 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing466+13.0 pts t 4.0−2.2 pts
Energy126+7.4 pts t 1.2−7.8 pts
Other115+8.4 pts t 1.8+3.8 pts
Tech hardware & semis113+10.9 pts t 1.6+2.3 pts
Services96+11.9 pts t 2.7+12.2 pts
Retail & consumer87+17.2 pts t 2.1+10.2 pts
Finance & real estate72−1.7 pts t -0.5−2.4 pts
Utilities65+5.6 pts t 0.6−1.2 pts
Construction53+13.2 pts t 1.7−2.4 pts
Biotech & pharma44+47.1 pts t 1.6+10.0 pts
Telecom & media43+14.0 pts t 0.7−6.3 pts
Software & IT services35+39.9 pts t 1.8+1.2 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +10.7 pts (n 629, t 6.0). From 2018: +14.0 pts (n 798, t 4.1). Same sign in both halves.

Year2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+13 pts+5 pts+14 pts+18 pts−4 pts−4 pts+22 pts+12 pts−3 pts−15 pts+87 pts+8 pts+17 pts−9 pts−7 pts+15 pts
n254310610178841118178991297276108121115

Read the research behind this screen: Price-to-book still sorts, across all sizes → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Our model values are recomputed daily but were never stored historically, so this band cannot be backtested honestly yet. Daily snapshots began 2026-09-10; a true record accrues from there. Until then the nearest tested cousin is shown — cheap on book value — and labelled as a proxy. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
GVA
GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INC
Overvalued
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$114.41
Model IV$90.94
P/IV1.50
Premium +26% Return to IV: -20.5%
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model +6.0% · in line
GWH
ESS Tech, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$0.38
Model IV$0.29
P/IV3.54
Premium +34% Return to IV: -25.2%
Market implies -4.7%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
GWRE
Guidewire Software, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$153.00
Model IV$50.16
P/IV3.04
Premium +205% Return to IV: -67.2%
Market implies +24.4%/yr vs model +12.6% · above model
GWW
W.W. GRAINGER, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 68 · High
Price$1,280.00
Model IV$587.90
P/IV2.10
Premium +118% Return to IV: -54.1%
Market implies +18.2%/yr vs model +9.7% · above model
GXAI
GAXOS.AI INC.
Undervalued
Technology Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$0.65
Model IV$0.77
P/IV1.54
Discount 15% Return to IV: +17.9%
Market implies -11.3%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
GYRO
Gyrodyne, LLC
Deeply overvalued
Real Estate Risk 74 · High
Price$5.05
Model IV$3.26
P/IV2.17
Premium +55% Return to IV: -35.5%
HAO
Haoxi Health Technology Ltd
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 39 · Moderate
Price$2.86
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +26.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
HAS
HASBRO, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Price$91.54
Model IV$44.55
P/IV1.93
Premium +105% Return to IV: -51.3%
Market implies +5.9%/yr vs model -2.9% · above model
HASI
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 69 · High
Price$36.43
Model IV$24.02
P/IV1.71
Premium +52% Return to IV: -34.1%
HAYW
Hayward Holdings, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 61 · High
Price$13.11
Model IV$7.93
P/IV1.78
Premium +65% Return to IV: -39.5%
Market implies +3.7%/yr vs model -2.0% · above model
HBANL
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC /MD/
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 71 · High
Price$25.01
Model IV$18.34
P/IV1.37
Premium +36% Return to IV: -26.7%
HBNC
HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$19.78
Model IV$9.90
P/IV1.87
Premium +100% Return to IV: -49.9%
HCAI
Huachen AI Parking Management Technology Holding Co., Ltd
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$0.61
Model IV$2.39
P/IV3.39
Discount 75% Return to IV: +292.3%
Market implies -28.1%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model
HDRN
Hadron Energy, Inc.
Fairly valued
Utilities Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$1.63
Model IV$1.83
P/IV1.63
Discount 11% Return to IV: +12.1%
HDSN
HUDSON TECHNOLOGIES INC /NY
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 61 · High
Price$5.41
Model IV$3.72
P/IV1.43
Premium +45% Return to IV: -31.1%
Market implies +3.3%/yr vs model +6.4% · below model
HE
HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES INC
Overvalued
Utilities Risk 67 · High
Price$10.38
Model IV$8.11
P/IV1.64
Premium +28% Return to IV: -21.9%
HEI
HEICO CORP
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 60 · High
Price$316.00
Model IV$181.61
P/IV1.92
Premium +74% Return to IV: -42.5%
Market implies +22.3%/yr vs model +19.0% · above model
HERE
Here Group Ltd
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$1.88
Model IV$0.86
P/IV2.47
Premium +120% Return to IV: -54.5%
Market implies +8.7%/yr vs model -1.4% · above model
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 64 · High
Price$37.91
Model IV$39.54
P/IV1.32
Discount 4% Return to IV: +4.3%
Market implies +13.0%/yr vs model +17.4% · below model
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 61 · High
Price$60.94
Model IV$24.69
P/IV2.57
Premium +147% Return to IV: -59.5%
HIPO
Hippo Holdings Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 73 · High
Price$32.55
Model IV$8.92
P/IV2.90
Premium +265% Return to IV: -72.6%
HIT
Health In Tech, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$0.91
Model IV$0.63
P/IV1.58
Premium +44% Return to IV: -30.6%
Market implies +22.3%/yr vs model +25.0% · in line
HIVE
HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$3.03
Model IV$0.97
P/IV4.67
Premium +213% Return to IV: -68.1%
Market implies +22.6%/yr vs model +15.0% · above model
HKIT
HiTek Global Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$2.44
Model IV$0.70
P/IV2.09
Premium +250% Return to IV: -71.4%
Market implies +10.7%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
HLIO
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$70.66
Model IV$33.27
P/IV2.50
Premium +112% Return to IV: -52.9%
Market implies +13.5%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
HLIT
HARMONIC INC.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$12.00
Model IV$3.68
P/IV4.10
Premium +226% Return to IV: -69.3%
Market implies +13.5%/yr vs model -2.1% · above model
HMN
HORACE MANN EDUCATORS CORP /DE/
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$48.77
Model IV$31.52
P/IV1.45
Premium +55% Return to IV: -35.4%
HNRG
HALLADOR ENERGY CO
Deeply overvalued
Utilities Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$15.34
Model IV$7.65
P/IV2.52
Premium +100% Return to IV: -50.1%
HNST
Honest Company, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 48 · Elevated
Price$5.55
Model IV$2.55
P/IV1.37
Premium +118% Return to IV: -54.1%
Market implies +11.4%/yr vs model +3.9% · above model
HON
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$202.36
Model IV$152.89
P/IV1.56
Premium +32% Return to IV: -24.4%
Market implies +8.3%/yr vs model +5.4% · in line
HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$112.57
Model IV$26.74
P/IV3.53
Premium +321% Return to IV: -76.2%
Market implies +37.9%/yr vs model +20.1% · above model
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$62.09
Model IV$17.25
P/IV2.50
Premium +260% Return to IV: -72.2%
Market implies +25.0%/yr vs model +7.4% · above model
HROW
HARROW, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 69 · High
Price$34.48
Model IV$22.94
P/IV1.53
Premium +50% Return to IV: -33.5%
Market implies +24.1%/yr vs model +25.0% · in line
HRTX
HERON THERAPEUTICS, INC. /DE/
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$0.32
Model IV$0.60
P/IV1.44
Discount 48% Return to IV: +91.3%
Market implies -10.9%/yr vs model +15.7% · below model
HST
HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$22.37
Model IV$15.86
P/IV1.45
Premium +41% Return to IV: -29.1%
HTFL
Heartflow, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$49.88
Model IV$12.14
P/IV1.45
Premium +311% Return to IV: -75.7%
Market implies +24.0%/yr vs model +42.1% · below model
HTH
Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 71 · High
Price$38.68
Model IV$28.05
P/IV1.34
Premium +38% Return to IV: -27.5%
HUBB
HUBBELL INC
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$460.40
Model IV$283.77
P/IV1.67
Premium +62% Return to IV: -38.4%
Market implies +15.0%/yr vs model +10.2% · above model
HUIZ
Huize Holding Ltd
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$1.53
Model IV$0.31
P/IV4.63
Premium +399% Return to IV: -79.9%
Market implies +15.0%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
HUN
Huntsman CORP
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$9.54
Model IV$5.05
P/IV3.04
Premium +89% Return to IV: -47.1%
Market implies +8.3%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
HWKN
HAWKINS INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 65 · High
Price$121.49
Model IV$66.49
P/IV2.33
Premium +83% Return to IV: -45.3%
Market implies +14.1%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
HXL
HEXCEL CORP /DE/
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 61 · High
Price$91.36
Model IV$33.52
P/IV2.68
Premium +173% Return to IV: -63.3%
Market implies +20.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
HY
HYSTER-YALE, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 66 · High
Price$33.40
Model IV$10.63
P/IV3.42
Premium +214% Return to IV: -68.2%
Market implies +20.0%/yr vs model +5.5% · above model
HYNE
Hoyne Bancorp, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$16.46
Model IV$11.97
P/IV1.33
Premium +38% Return to IV: -27.3%
HYPR
Hyperfine, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 60 · High
Price$0.80
Model IV$0.42
P/IV3.75
Premium +93% Return to IV: -48.2%
Market implies +14.5%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
IBM
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$243.29
Model IV$184.09
P/IV1.62
Premium +32% Return to IV: -24.3%
Market implies +9.4%/yr vs model +6.5% · in line
ICCC
IMMUCELL CORP /DE/
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$9.85
Model IV$2.86
P/IV3.59
Premium +245% Return to IV: -71.0%
Market implies +21.4%/yr vs model +9.6% · above model
ICG
Intchains Group Ltd
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$0.97
Model IV$0.31
P/IV2.64
Premium +208% Return to IV: -67.6%
Market implies +16.0%/yr vs model +15.0% · in line
ICHR
ICHOR HOLDINGS, LTD.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 68 · High
Price$51.09
Model IV$21.38
P/IV3.35
Premium +139% Return to IV: -58.2%
Market implies +20.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
ICUI
ICU MEDICAL INC/DE
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 63 · High
Price$155.88
Model IV$50.94
P/IV2.66
Premium +206% Return to IV: -67.3%
Market implies +25.4%/yr vs model +12.9% · above model
IDXX
IDEXX LABORATORIES INC /DE
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$504.70
Model IV$231.99
P/IV2.43
Premium +118% Return to IV: -54.0%
Market implies +18.7%/yr vs model +9.9% · above model
IDYA
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$37.59
Model IV$17.32
P/IV1.70
Premium +117% Return to IV: -53.9%
Market implies +10.3%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
IESC
IES Holdings, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$345.71
Model IV$170.58
P/IV3.98
Premium +103% Return to IV: -50.7%
Market implies +25.1%/yr vs model +18.1% · above model
IEX
IDEX CORP /DE/
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$222.84
Model IV$142.72
P/IV1.48
Premium +56% Return to IV: -36.0%
Market implies +11.1%/yr vs model +5.8% · above model
IFF
INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 61 · High
Price$83.61
Model IV$32.22
P/IV2.36
Premium +159% Return to IV: -61.5%
Market implies +15.5%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
IH
iHuman Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$1.21
Model IV$0.73
P/IV2.26
Premium +64% Return to IV: -39.0%
Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
III
Information Services Group Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 64 · High
Price$5.38
Model IV$2.47
P/IV1.83
Premium +118% Return to IV: -54.2%
Market implies +9.4%/yr vs model +0.3% · above model
IIIV
i3 Verticals, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 64 · High
Price$15.65
Model IV$8.37
P/IV2.43
Premium +87% Return to IV: -46.5%
Market implies +6.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
INBS
INTELLIGENT BIO SOLUTIONS INC.
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$2.13
Model IV$0.66
P/IV3.89
Premium +223% Return to IV: -69.0%
Market implies +9.1%/yr vs model +11.4% · in line
INDI
indie Semiconductor, Inc.
Fairly valued
Technology Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$3.08
Model IV$3.35
P/IV1.49
Discount 8% Return to IV: +8.7%
Market implies +5.0%/yr vs model +45.6% · below model