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Verdict

Deep Undervalued

Every analyzed stock in Deep Undervalued — 1,156 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Deep Undervalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Deep Undervalued" here means IRR 10–30 points over Treasuries on a believable coupon (yield ≤ 25%; anything richer is a data flag, shown only on the full table) (10-yr Treasury 5.00% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR 10–30 points over Treasuries, yield ≤ 25% · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Could be luck Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +2.9 pts (823 entries, 256 companies, could be luck). 47% of entries beat the S&P; 18% beat it by 30 points or more; 27% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is +1.2 pts.
+2.9 ptsvs S&P, average
47%beat the S&P
18%up 30+ pts vs S&P
27%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+6.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−14.6 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
1.8luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −0.5 pts 47% beat6 mo: +0.1 pts 45% beat12 mo: +2.9 pts 47% beat24 mo: +3.3 pts 42% beat3 yr, per yr: −0.9 pts 39% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today686+1.9 pts t 1.2+5.3 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)137+7.9 pts t 1.4+9.6 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing256+0.9 pts t 0.4−5.1 pts
Retail & consumer106+10.5 pts t 1.9+1.9 pts
Services78−3.2 pts t -0.5−2.1 pts
Energy69+3.1 pts t 0.5−4.9 pts
Other61−4.4 pts t -0.8−3.3 pts
Tech hardware & semis58−2.8 pts t -0.6−1.4 pts
Finance & real estate46+5.9 pts t 1.5+6.8 pts
Biotech & pharma28−5.0 pts t -0.7−4.3 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +5.1 pts (n 291, t 2.3). From 2018: +1.7 pts (n 532, t 0.8). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P−11 pts+5 pts+6 pts−5 pts−4 pts+17 pts+8 pts−10 pts−14 pts+46 pts+8 pts+8 pts−14 pts−15 pts+3 pts
n12943515570425362725676876957

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

CPAY
CORPAY, INC.
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield5.8%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR17.1%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.82
Market implies +12.2%/yr vs model +16.3% · below model
APAM
Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc.
Demanding to believe
Financial Services Risk 44 · Elevated
Yield10.6%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR17.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.90
Market implies +1.3%/yr vs model +3.0% · in line
CSL
CARLISLE COMPANIES INC
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield6.9%
Growth used11.3%
10-yr IRR17.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.07
Market implies +5.3%/yr vs model +11.3% · below model
QUAD
Quad/Graphics, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Communication Services Risk 44 · Elevated
Yield12.1%
Growth used0.5%
10-yr IRR17.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.81
Market implies +0.5%/yr vs model +0.5% · in line
MPAA
MOTORCAR PARTS OF AMERICA INC
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 32 · Moderate
Yield8.2%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR17.0%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.47
Market implies -6.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
PNRG
PRIMEENERGY RESOURCES CORP
Rich — check why
Energy Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield8.2%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR16.9%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.45
Market implies -2.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
TPC
TUTOR PERINI CORP
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 33 · Moderate
Yield9.5%
Growth used5.0%
10-yr IRR16.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.90
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +5.0% · in line
NWL
NEWELL BRANDS INC.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 49 · Elevated
Yield12.3%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR16.8%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.93
Market implies +4.6%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
UAN
CVR PARTNERS, LP
Rich — check why
Basic Materials Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield10.0%
Growth used3.8%
10-yr IRR16.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.43
Market implies -7.1%/yr vs model +3.8% · below model
ACEL
Accel Entertainment, Inc.
Rich — check why
Communication Services Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield5.6%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR16.7%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.68
Market implies +5.8%/yr vs model +15.9% · below model
NCSM
NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.
Rich — check why
Energy Risk 26 · Moderate
Yield8.0%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR16.7%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.54
Market implies -0.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
DHI
HORTON D R INC /DE/
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield7.4%
Growth used9.6%
10-yr IRR16.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.64
Market implies +0.8%/yr vs model +9.6% · below model
RDCM
RADCOM LTD
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield5.8%
Growth used14.4%
10-yr IRR16.6%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.31
Market implies +8.1%/yr vs model +14.4% · below model
BAH
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield7.4%
Growth used9.5%
10-yr IRR16.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.33
Market implies -6.6%/yr vs model +9.5% · below model
HNI
HNI CORP
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield8.5%
Growth used6.8%
10-yr IRR16.6%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.51
Market implies +1.8%/yr vs model +6.8% · below model
BKE
BUCKLE INC
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield10.3%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR16.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.75
Market implies -3.2%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
IBTA
Ibotta, Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield5.5%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR16.5%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.99
Market implies +14.0%/yr vs model +15.9% · in line
SLGN
SILGAN HOLDINGS INC
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 25 · Moderate
Yield9.2%
Growth used5.2%
10-yr IRR16.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.09
Market implies -4.1%/yr vs model +5.2% · below model
ESCA
ESCALADE INC
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 62 · High
Yield13.4%
Growth used-2.1%
10-yr IRR16.4%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.29
Market implies -1.8%/yr vs model -2.1% · in line
OPLN
OPENLANE, Inc.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 30 · Moderate
Yield6.7%
Growth used11.1%
10-yr IRR16.4%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.60
Market implies +0.7%/yr vs model +11.1% · below model
SNX
TD SYNNEX CORP
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 27 · Moderate
Yield5.5%
Growth used14.8%
10-yr IRR16.4%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.76
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model +14.8% · below model
VNT
Vontier Corp
Rich — check why
Healthcare Risk 37 · Moderate
Yield8.3%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR16.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.60
Market implies +0.5%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model
MBUU
MALIBU BOATS, INC.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Yield9.4%
Growth used4.6%
10-yr IRR16.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.23
Market implies +13.4%/yr vs model +4.6% · above model
CRUS
CIRRUS LOGIC, INC.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield7.7%
Growth used8.4%
10-yr IRR16.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.88
Market implies +0.5%/yr vs model +8.4% · below model
GNTX
GENTEX CORP
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 25 · Moderate
Yield7.8%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR16.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.77
Market implies +2.1%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
TEX
TEREX CORP
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield7.2%
Growth used9.5%
10-yr IRR16.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.04
Market implies +8.6%/yr vs model +9.5% · in line
INFU
InfuSystem Holdings, Inc
Rich — check why
Healthcare Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield7.0%
Growth used10.3%
10-yr IRR16.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.88
Market implies +8.6%/yr vs model +10.3% · in line
WFRD
Weatherford International plc
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield8.1%
Growth used7.2%
10-yr IRR16.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.07
Market implies +4.8%/yr vs model +7.2% · in line
INVX
Innovex International, Inc.
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 33 · Moderate
Yield5.4%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR16.2%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.23
Market implies -1.5%/yr vs model +24.2% · below model
HKD
AMTD Digital Inc.
Rich — check why
Financial Services Risk 31 · Moderate
Yield5.4%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR16.1%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.53
Market implies +3.7%/yr vs model +20.3% · below model
KFY
KORN FERRY
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 36 · Moderate
Yield6.5%
Growth used11.3%
10-yr IRR16.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.59
Market implies +3.2%/yr vs model +11.3% · below model
ACM
AECOM
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 26 · Moderate
Yield7.7%
Growth used8.1%
10-yr IRR16.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.76
Market implies +1.8%/yr vs model +8.1% · below model
DVN
DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE
Rich — check why
Energy Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield9.2%
Growth used4.8%
10-yr IRR16.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.41
Market implies -5.7%/yr vs model +4.8% · below model
MHH
Mastech Digital, Inc.
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 45 · Elevated
Yield12.2%
Growth used-0.8%
10-yr IRR16.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.86
Market implies -5.3%/yr vs model -0.8% · below model
SWKS
SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 61 · High
Yield10.8%
Growth used1.6%
10-yr IRR16.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.36
Market implies +7.7%/yr vs model +1.6% · above model
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield9.0%
Growth used5.0%
10-yr IRR16.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.69
Market implies +8.4%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
POOL
POOL CORP
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield9.0%
Growth used5.0%
10-yr IRR16.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.34
Market implies +7.5%/yr vs model +5.0% · in line
EBF
ENNIS, INC.
Rich — check why
Communication Services Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield10.0%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR16.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.79
Market implies -0.8%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
WHG
WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP INC
Rich — check why
Financial Services Risk 31 · Moderate
Yield7.8%
Growth used7.7%
10-yr IRR16.0%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.54
Market implies -2.2%/yr vs model +7.7% · below model
NATH
NATHANS FAMOUS, INC.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 45 · Elevated
Yield5.3%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR15.9%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.46
Market implies +0.5%/yr vs model +15.2% · below model
THC
TENET HEALTHCARE CORP
Rich — check why
Healthcare Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield7.4%
Growth used8.6%
10-yr IRR15.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies -6.1%/yr vs model +8.6% · below model
ROCK
GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC.
Rich — check why
Basic Materials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield11.6%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR15.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.20
Market implies +2.9%/yr vs model +0.0% · in line
KELYB
KELLY SERVICES INC
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 23 · Moderate
Yield8.1%
Growth used6.9%
10-yr IRR15.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.29
Market implies -10.0%/yr vs model +6.9% · below model
TMHC
Taylor Morrison Home Corp
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield7.9%
Growth used7.2%
10-yr IRR15.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.41
Market implies -3.3%/yr vs model +7.2% · below model
MLAB
MESA LABORATORIES INC /CO/
Rich — check why
Healthcare Risk 44 · Elevated
Yield5.5%
Growth used14.1%
10-yr IRR15.6%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.05
Market implies +13.7%/yr vs model +14.1% · in line
LEA
LEAR CORP
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield8.4%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR15.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.07
Market implies +3.9%/yr vs model +5.8% · in line
BC
BRUNSWICK CORP
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 44 · Elevated
Yield7.9%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR15.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.18
Market implies +5.7%/yr vs model +7.0% · in line
SAIC
Science Applications International Corp
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 35 · Moderate
Yield7.8%
Growth used7.3%
10-yr IRR15.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.35
Market implies -4.6%/yr vs model +7.3% · below model
MHK
MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield8.5%
Growth used5.5%
10-yr IRR15.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.09
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +5.5% · in line
RLGT
RADIANT LOGISTICS, INC
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield9.0%
Growth used4.2%
10-yr IRR15.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.94
Market implies +1.2%/yr vs model +4.2% · below model
ASO
Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 64 · High
Yield7.8%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR15.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.26
Market implies +9.8%/yr vs model +7.0% · in line
CCL
Carnival Corp Ltd.
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield5.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR15.3%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.61
Market implies +8.8%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
SFM
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.
Rich — check why
Consumer Defensive Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield5.2%
Growth used14.6%
10-yr IRR15.3%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.34
Market implies -3.3%/yr vs model +14.6% · below model
ACI
Albertsons Companies, Inc.
Rich — check why
Consumer Defensive Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield9.0%
Growth used4.1%
10-yr IRR15.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies -3.4%/yr vs model +4.1% · below model
RAMP
LiveRamp Holdings, Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield5.7%
Growth used12.7%
10-yr IRR15.3%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.11
Market implies +11.3%/yr vs model +12.7% · in line
DOCS
Doximity, Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 25 · Moderate
Yield5.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR15.2%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.66
Market implies +9.5%/yr vs model +15.5% · below model
ICFI
ICF International, Inc.
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield8.2%
Growth used6.0%
10-yr IRR15.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.58
Market implies +0.2%/yr vs model +6.0% · below model
BFAM
BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC.
Rich — check why
Consumer Defensive Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield5.8%
Growth used12.5%
10-yr IRR15.2%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies -3.0%/yr vs model +12.5% · below model
LI
Li Auto Inc.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 65 · High
Yield7.3%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR15.2%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.27
Market implies +19.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
IIIN
INSTEEL INDUSTRIES INC
Rich — check why
Basic Materials Risk 49 · Elevated
Yield9.4%
Growth used3.1%
10-yr IRR15.2%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.09
Market implies +4.4%/yr vs model +3.1% · in line