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Theme

E-commerce

Every analyzed stock in E-commerce — 318 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

E-commerce risk

Near-term vs. long-term risk for this theme

⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months

40 /100 Elevated ▼ -3 slight

Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history

61 /100 High ◆ flat

▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago — red = risk rising, green = falling.

Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 214 stocks valued

Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.

33 Moderate

Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 214 stocks.

39 Moderate

Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.

52 Elevated

Smart money — the three inputs

Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.

50.3%

Elevated

Buyers' strike ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders bought NONE of their own stock on the open market in the last 12 months. The higher this runs, the more bearish (nobody's buying the dip in their own shares). Weighted 35%.

58%

Elevated

Net insider selling ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders were net DISCRETIONARY sellers over 12 months (excludes scheduled 10b5-1 plans, which carry little signal). Around half is normal; well above that is bearish. Weighted 25%.

36%

Moderate

Black number = the raw figure; coloured bar & word = how it reads as risk. Insider inputs from 224 stocks (full universe); short-selling is market-wide.

Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.

Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.

Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest

This week in E-commerce

E-commerce — Sep 7 – Sep 11, 2026 (Wk 37): E-commerce Risk Elevated; Amazon Sees Investor Inflows; MercadoLibre’s Unique Achievement →

The E-commerce theme's risk score increased this week. Several investment firms made significant new investments in Amazon.com, Inc. Meanwhile, MercadoLibre achieved a milestone that other major e-commerce companies have not.

Technology Risk 49 · Elevated

Model IV$110.75

Premium +10% Return to IV: -8.9%

Market implies +18.2%/yr vs model +21.4% · below model

Stitch Fix, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 45 · Elevated

Discount 17% Return to IV: +20.5%

Market implies +0.6%/yr vs model +2.0% · in line

SHENGFENG DEVELOPMENT Ltd

Industrials Risk 45 · Elevated

Limited data — see page

SOMNIGROUP INTERNATIONAL INC.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated

Premium +42% Return to IV: -29.6%

Market implies +13.4%/yr vs model +10.1% · above model

STEVEN MADDEN, LTD.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 62 · High

Premium +125% Return to IV: -55.6%

Market implies +21.5%/yr vs model +11.4% · above model

Deeply overvalued

Technology Risk 55 · Elevated

Premium +444% Return to IV: -81.6%

Market implies +42.9%/yr vs model +21.7% · above model

SIGNET JEWELERS LTD

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate

Model IV$148.17

Discount 32% Return to IV: +47.8%

Market implies -0.1%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model

Smart Logistics Global Ltd

Deeply undervalued

Industrials Risk 30 · Moderate

Discount 75% Return to IV: +304.8%

Market implies -29.7%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model

SIMILARWEB LTD.

Technology Risk 25 · Moderate

Premium +16% Return to IV: -14.0%

Market implies +4.1%/yr vs model +19.7% · below model

Sleep Number Corp

Consumer Cyclical Risk 68 · High

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Synergy CHC Corp.

Healthcare Risk 63 · High

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Consumer Defensive Risk 31 · Moderate

Market implies +14.4%/yr vs model +15.0% · in line

Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.

Technology Risk 33 · Moderate

Model IV$101.31

Discount 15% Return to IV: +18.3%

Market implies +2.6%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model

SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 27 · Moderate

Market implies -0.4%/yr vs model +2.3% · in line

STAG Industrial, Inc.

Financial Services Risk 67 · High

Premium +26% Return to IV: -20.9%

Limited data — see page

STARZ ENTERTAINMENT CORP /CN/

Deeply undervalued

Communication Services Risk 34 · Moderate

Discount 65% Return to IV: +184.9%

Market implies -17.5%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

SUJA LIFE, INC.

Consumer Defensive Risk 55 · Elevated

Limited data — see page

Smurfit Westrock plc

Deeply overvalued

Basic Materials Risk 58 · Elevated

Premium +155% Return to IV: -60.8%

Market implies +19.8%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Deeply undervalued

Industrials Risk 34 · Moderate

Model IV$146.75

Discount 71% Return to IV: +248.3%

Market implies -0.3%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model

Talkspace, Inc.

Healthcare Risk 42 · Elevated

Premium +10% Return to IV: -9.5%

Market implies -4.2%/yr vs model +19.1% · below model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated

Market implies +20.8%/yr vs model +5.4% · above model

TFI International Inc.

Industrials Risk 27 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

TREASURE GLOBAL INC

Technology Risk 33 · Moderate

Market implies +32.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 65 · High

Premium +59% Return to IV: -37.0%

Market implies +10.4%/yr vs model +4.9% · above model

TANDY LEATHER FACTORY INC

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate

Discount 57% Return to IV: +134.6%

Market implies -22.4%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 29 · Moderate

Discount 77% Return to IV: +331.7%

Market implies -31.2%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 54 · Elevated

Premium +76% Return to IV: -43.2%

Market implies +16.4%/yr vs model +10.0% · above model

LendingTree, Inc.

Deeply overvalued

Financial Services Risk 64 · High

Premium +27% Return to IV: -21.4%

Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +3.0% · in line

Terreno Realty Corp

Deeply undervalued

Real Estate Risk 34 · Moderate

Discount 33% Return to IV: +49.3%

Market implies +7.0%/yr vs model +15.9% · below model

Deeply overvalued

Technology Risk 57 · Elevated

Premium +54% Return to IV: -35.2%

Market implies +15.4%/yr vs model +11.7% · above model

TRUPANION, INC.

Deeply overvalued

Financial Services Risk 62 · High

Premium +367% Return to IV: -78.6%

Under Armour, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated

Discount 25% Return to IV: +32.5%

Market implies -3.5%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Under Armour, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 49 · Elevated

Discount 26% Return to IV: +34.5%

Market implies -3.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

CN Healthy Food Tech Group Corp.

Consumer Defensive Risk 38 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 36 · Moderate

Model IV$691.60

Discount 21% Return to IV: +26.5%

Market implies +7.1%/yr vs model +13.0% · below model

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC

Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated

Premium +14% Return to IV: -12.2%

Market implies +5.1%/yr vs model +3.8% · in line

Deeply undervalued

Technology Risk 40 · Elevated

Discount 66% Return to IV: +191.3%

Market implies -6.3%/yr vs model +11.9% · below model

URBAN OUTFITTERS INC

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 53 · Elevated

Premium +37% Return to IV: -27.0%

Market implies +12.3%/yr vs model +9.9% · in line

Technology Risk 32 · Moderate

Market implies +41.0%/yr vs model +46.6% · below model

Linkage Global Inc

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High

Discount 53% Return to IV: +113.8%

Market implies -18.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated

Premium +30% Return to IV: -23.1%

Market implies +2.0%/yr vs model -1.2% · above model

Vipshop Holdings Ltd

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 36 · Moderate

Discount 82% Return to IV: +448.2%

Market implies -25.1%/yr vs model +3.1% · below model

VINCE HOLDING CORP.

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 36 · Moderate

Discount 42% Return to IV: +72.4%

Market implies -6.6%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Vera Bradley, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate

Discount 22% Return to IV: +27.4%

Market implies -6.7%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated

Market implies -48.6%/yr vs model +12.0% · below model

Victoria's Secret & Co.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 52 · Elevated

Premium +185% Return to IV: -65.0%

Market implies +20.1%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model

Technology Risk 36 · Moderate

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +10.2% · below model

Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V.

Real Estate Risk 42 · Elevated

Market implies +42.2%/yr vs model +15.2% · above model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 72 · High

Market implies +43.3%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model

WEBUY GLOBAL LTD

Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate

Market implies -6.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

WEYCO GROUP INC

Consumer Defensive Risk 49 · Elevated

Premium +2% Return to IV: -1.7%

Market implies +1.9%/yr vs model +3.0% · in line

Deeply undervalued

Technology Risk 31 · Moderate

Model IV$106.92

Discount 28% Return to IV: +39.6%

Market implies +5.4%/yr vs model +12.0% · below model

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High

Premium +275% Return to IV: -73.3%

Market implies +22.7%/yr vs model +6.3% · above model

Meiwu Technology Co Ltd

Consumer Defensive Risk 40 · Elevated

Discount 43% Return to IV: +74.0%

Market implies -10.2%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Warby Parker Inc.

Healthcare Risk 34 · Moderate

Market implies +56.1%/yr vs model +11.9% · above model

WeShop Holdings Ltd

Consumer Cyclical Risk 38 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

WILLIAMS SONOMA INC

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 66 · High

Premium +164% Return to IV: -62.2%

Market implies +16.6%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model

WILLAMETTE VALLEY VINEYARDS INC

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Defensive Risk 26 · Moderate

Discount 80% Return to IV: +400.5%

Market implies -38.5%/yr vs model +4.0% · below model

WILLAMETTE VALLEY VINEYARDS INC

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Defensive Risk 27 · Moderate

Discount 70% Return to IV: +233.7%

Market implies -30.7%/yr vs model +4.0% · below model