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Consumer Cyclical

Every analyzed stock in Consumer Cyclical — 495 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Consumer Cyclical risk
Near-term vs. long-term risk for this sector
⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months
42 /100 Elevated ▼ -3 slight
Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history
52 /100 Elevated ◆ flat
▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago — red = risk rising, green = falling.
Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 358 stocks valued
Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.
33 Moderate
Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 358 stocks.
39 Moderate
◆ flat
Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.
59 Elevated
▼ -1
Smart money — the three inputs
Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.
54.0%
High
Buyers' strike ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders bought NONE of their own stock on the open market in the last 12 months. The higher this runs, the more bearish (nobody's buying the dip in their own shares). Weighted 35%.
62%
Elevated
Net insider selling ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders were net DISCRETIONARY sellers over 12 months (excludes scheduled 10b5-1 plans, which carry little signal). Around half is normal; well above that is bearish. Weighted 25%.
41%
Moderate
Black number = the raw figure; coloured bar & word = how it reads as risk. Insider inputs from 372 stocks (full universe); short-selling is market-wide.
Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.
Divergence: insiders are defensive while macro conditions (credit, curve, volatility) stay calm. Insiders are strong judges of their own companies but poor macro timers — historically this pattern favors selective stock-picking (see the opportunistic-buy signals) over exiting the market wholesale.
Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.
Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
This week in Consumer Cyclical
Consumer Cyclical — Sep 7 – Sep 11, 2026 (Wk 37): Consumer Cyclical Sector: Mixed Analyst Sentiments, Elevated Risk, and Insider Buys →
This week saw varied analyst opinions on consumer cyclical stocks, with some price targets lowered while others maintained support despite recent stock slides. The sector's risk score increased, and a notable insider purchase occurred, indicating diverse…
PZZA
PAPA JOHNS INTERNATIONAL INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 73 · High
Price$20.56
Model IV$25.77
P/IV1.33
Discount 20% Return to IV: +25.3%
Market implies +0.2%/yr vs model +4.7% · below model
QSR
Restaurant Brands International Inc.
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated
Price$75.49
Model IV$104.64
P/IV0.71
Discount 28% Return to IV: +38.6%
Market implies +5.4%/yr vs model +11.7% · below model
RACE
Ferrari N.V.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$413.78
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
RAIL
FreightCar America, Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$6.87
Model IV$15.69
P/IV0.48
Discount 56% Return to IV: +128.4%
Market implies +1.0%/yr vs model +20.5% · below model
RCKY
ROCKY BRANDS, INC.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$44.19
Model IV$56.55
P/IV0.68
Discount 22% Return to IV: +28.0%
Market implies -3.3%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
RCT
RedCloud Holdings plc
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate
Price$0.20
Model IV$2.24
P/IV0.30
Discount 91% Return to IV: +1,026.9%
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
RDGT
Ridgetech Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 31 · Moderate
Price$0.82
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -13.7%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
RDW
Redwire Corp
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate
Price$10.62
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +83.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
REAL
TheRealReal, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Price$9.83
Model IV$3.33
P/IV2.90
Premium +195% Return to IV: -66.1%
Market implies +21.9%/yr vs model +10.3% · above model
REBN
Reborn Coffee, Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$0.79
Model IV$1.46
P/IV1.37
Discount 46% Return to IV: +86.3%
Market implies -11.3%/yr vs model +38.4% · below model
REE
REE Automotive Ltd.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$0.08
Model IV$0.11
P/IV4.02
Discount 27% Return to IV: +36.5%
Market implies -3.1%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
RENT
Rent the Runway, Inc.
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 70 · High
Price$2.45
Model IV$3.11
P/IV1.27
Discount 21% Return to IV: +26.7%
Market implies -2.7%/yr vs model +25.8% · below model
RERE
ATRenew Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Price$3.97
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
RGS
REGIS CORP
Overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$28.35
Model IV$22.61
P/IV1.27
Premium +25% Return to IV: -20.2%
Market implies -1.4%/yr vs model -1.1% · in line
RH
RH
Overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$134.17
Model IV$112.28
P/IV1.32
Premium +19% Return to IV: -16.3%
Market implies +8.7%/yr vs model +7.0% · in line
RICK
RCI HOSPITALITY HOLDINGS, INC.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 35 · Moderate
Price$29.09
Model IV$42.01
P/IV0.60
Discount 31% Return to IV: +44.4%
Market implies +0.1%/yr vs model +9.5% · below model
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate
Price$16.03
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +84.1%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
RKLB
Rocket Lab Corp
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 35 · Moderate
Price$63.55
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +121.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
RL
RALPH LAUREN CORP
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$341.43
Model IV$298.16
P/IV1.22
Premium +15% Return to IV: -12.7%
Market implies +11.3%/yr vs model +11.2% · in line
ROST
ROSS STORES, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$230.74
Model IV$129.23
P/IV1.79
Premium +79% Return to IV: -44.0%
Market implies +14.1%/yr vs model +7.9% · above model
RRGB
RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High
Price$7.25
Model IV$1.99
P/IV2.54
Premium +265% Return to IV: -72.6%
Market implies +20.1%/yr vs model +3.1% · above model
RRR
Red Rock Resorts, Inc.
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High
Price$54.75
Model IV$55.37
P/IV1.05
Discount 1% Return to IV: +1.1%
Market implies +7.7%/yr vs model +9.4% · in line
RUSHA
RUSH ENTERPRISES INC TX
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 32 · Moderate
Price$48.31
Model IV$121.91
P/IV0.57
Discount 60% Return to IV: +152.3%
Market implies -3.9%/yr vs model +11.0% · below model
RUSHB
RUSH ENTERPRISES INC TX
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 33 · Moderate
Price$49.88
Model IV$117.88
P/IV0.55
Discount 58% Return to IV: +136.3%
Market implies -3.1%/yr vs model +11.0% · below model
RVLV
Revolve Group, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$21.13
Model IV$7.26
P/IV2.70
Premium +191% Return to IV: -65.6%
Market implies +21.6%/yr vs model +9.0% · above model
RVSN
Rail Vision Ltd.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 33 · Moderate
Price$3.89
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +85.5%/yr vs model +13.8% · above model
RVSNW
Rail Vision Ltd.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$0.02
Model IV$0.01
P/IV2.58
Premium +144% Return to IV: -59.0%
Market implies +12.5%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
SAH
SONIC AUTOMOTIVE INC
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$75.90
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +36.9%/yr vs model +10.0% · above model
SBH
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$15.96
Model IV$22.13
P/IV0.60
Discount 28% Return to IV: +38.7%
Market implies -0.9%/yr vs model +5.4% · below model
SBUX
STARBUCKS CORP
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 72 · High
Price$98.74
Model IV$37.37
P/IV2.65
Premium +164% Return to IV: -62.2%
Market implies +19.4%/yr vs model +7.8% · above model
SCAG
Scage Future
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$0.22
Model IV$0.11
P/IV4.60
Premium +110% Return to IV: -52.3%
Market implies +12.5%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
SCAGW
Scage Future
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 70 · High
Price$0.01
Model IV$0.01
P/IV3.81
Premium +22% Return to IV: -18.0%
Market implies +0.0%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
SCI
SERVICE CORP INTERNATIONAL
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 38 · Moderate
Price$81.20
Model IV$104.75
P/IV0.72
Discount 22% Return to IV: +29.0%
Market implies +2.8%/yr vs model +7.1% · below model
SCVL
SHOE CARNIVAL INC
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$14.49
Model IV$14.55
P/IV1.22
Discount 0% Return to IV: +0.4%
Market implies -0.8%/yr vs model +0.6% · in line
SDOT
Sadot Group Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 62 · High
Price$12.39
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
SEV
Aptera Motors Corp
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$2.19
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +43.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
SFIX
Stitch Fix, Inc.
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 45 · Elevated
Price$2.94
Model IV$3.54
P/IV1.00
Discount 17% Return to IV: +20.5%
Market implies +0.6%/yr vs model +2.0% · in line
SG
Sweetgreen, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 27 · Moderate
Price$7.10
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +20.8%/yr vs model +18.9% · in line
SGC
SUPERIOR GROUP OF COMPANIES, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 68 · High
Price$12.53
Model IV$7.86
P/IV1.63
Premium +59% Return to IV: -37.3%
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model +4.6% · above model
SGI
SOMNIGROUP INTERNATIONAL INC.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$68.12
Model IV$47.99
P/IV1.48
Premium +42% Return to IV: -29.6%
Market implies +13.4%/yr vs model +10.1% · above model
SGU
STAR GROUP, L.P.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate
Price$12.88
Model IV$48.14
P/IV0.26
Discount 73% Return to IV: +273.7%
Market implies -10.0%/yr vs model +9.5% · below model
SHAK
Shake Shack Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$63.65
Model IV$17.88
P/IV3.60
Premium +256% Return to IV: -71.9%
Market implies +30.2%/yr vs model +15.2% · above model
SHO
Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated
Price$10.98
Model IV$27.83
P/IV0.39
Discount 61% Return to IV: +153.5%
Market implies +0.6%/yr vs model +17.1% · below model
SHOO
STEVEN MADDEN, LTD.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 62 · High
Price$42.93
Model IV$19.04
P/IV2.28
Premium +125% Return to IV: -55.6%
Market implies +21.5%/yr vs model +11.4% · above model
SHW
SHERWIN WILLIAMS CO
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$323.31
Model IV$194.26
P/IV1.56
Premium +66% Return to IV: -39.9%
Market implies +12.7%/yr vs model +7.0% · above model
SIG
SIGNET JEWELERS LTD
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate
Price$100.26
Model IV$148.17
P/IV0.59
Discount 32% Return to IV: +47.8%
Market implies -0.1%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model
SMP
STANDARD MOTOR PRODUCTS, INC.
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$38.05
Model IV$38.54
P/IV1.02
Discount 1% Return to IV: +1.3%
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
SNBR
Sleep Number Corp
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 68 · High
Price$0.13
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model
SPH
SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS LP
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 38 · Moderate
Price$17.07
Model IV$37.73
P/IV0.51
Discount 55% Return to IV: +121.0%
Market implies -7.2%/yr vs model +4.3% · below model
SPWH
SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 27 · Moderate
Price$1.19
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -0.4%/yr vs model +2.3% · in line
SRI
STONERIDGE INC
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 48 · Elevated
Price$7.27
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +38.0%/yr vs model +4.4% · above model
STKS
ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$1.58
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +30.6% · below model
STLA
Stellantis N.V.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$5.26
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
STRT
STRATTEC SECURITY CORP
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated
Price$71.38
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +28.1%/yr vs model +5.1% · above model
SVV
Savers Value Village, Inc.
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$9.86
Model IV$9.77
P/IV0.92
Premium +1% Return to IV: -0.9%
Market implies -1.6%/yr vs model +5.3% · below model
SWIM
Latham Group, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High
Price$6.32
Model IV$2.34
P/IV2.25
Premium +170% Return to IV: -62.9%
Market implies +12.7%/yr vs model -0.1% · above model
TDUP
ThredUp Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$2.61
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +20.8%/yr vs model +5.4% · above model
TGT
TARGET CORP
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 65 · High
Price$155.83
Model IV$98.23
P/IV1.29
Premium +59% Return to IV: -37.0%
Market implies +10.4%/yr vs model +4.9% · above model
TH
Target Hospitality Corp.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$19.25
Model IV$11.83
P/IV1.47
Premium +63% Return to IV: -38.5%
Market implies +11.2%/yr vs model +6.9% · above model
THCH
TH International Ltd
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 35 · Moderate
Price$1.36
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page